December 24, 2019

Brad Johnson on Jamal Khashoggi update


brad johnson 23rd of december and there
00:03
is much discussed let’s begin with
00:05
Khashoggi who is probably one of the
00:08
most interesting propaganda weapons
00:10
against President Trump I guess somehow
00:12
they twisted a Muslim Brotherhood
00:15
operative that was shot in at or in a in
00:17
and in a Saudi embassy in Turkey I got a
00:20
right tell us what the update is please
00:22
yeah okay at Jamal Khashoggi which was
00:26
murdered back in October of last year
00:29
2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul
00:35
and so all this be this got really
00:39
became a big deal which I’m sure kind of
00:41
intended to catch the Saudis unprepared
00:43
so just to bring everybody up to date he
00:46
walks in he’s getting some documents in
00:50
order in order to marry his longtime
00:52
girlfriend and never comes out now the
00:55
way the operation was done was you know
00:58
he walks in and they had a man take his
01:00
clothes put them on and he was
01:02
physically very similar and walk out
01:04
they knew that there were surveillance
01:06
cameras on the door so they thought they
01:09
were going to get away with that
01:10
essentially and and you know he walks in
01:12
and then he turns and walks out they
01:13
have it on film and they say seeing well
01:15
here’s the video of him leaving and
01:17
that’s in fact what initially happened
01:18
after Khashoggi disappears but multiple
01:21
things they weren’t counting on one of
01:23
which is that the girlfriend was the
01:25
fiancee rather was sitting out in the
01:26
car waiting for him so he doesn’t come
01:29
out ever and she sees him go in and not
01:31
come out so he had somebody on the hunt
01:33
with eyes on the door saying you know he
01:36
never came out and then they they had
01:39
the video tape which the Saudis released
01:41
saying oh yeah yeah he did and then what
01:44
happened was you know devastating to the
01:46
Saudis story essentially and they hadn’t
01:48
counted on the fact that Turkey their
01:51
intelligence operations had bugged if
01:54
you will they had put listening devices
01:55
inside the consulate so they had the
01:58
full recording of Khashoggi being killed
02:00
and there was even little tapes released
02:02
of the Consul General who was posted
02:06
there permanently saying don’t do it
02:08
here don’t do it here no no no take this
02:10
away you know don’t don’t be doing this
02:11
stuff
02:13
that all got released so it just blew
02:15
the Saudis story out of the water so
02:18
initially it was oh no he laughed and
02:20
then well oh well we’re not sure what
02:22
happened we’re still looking and
02:23
eventually of course the after a couple
02:25
of iterations of stories that didn’t
02:26
work because the Turks kept dripping
02:29
stuff out bit by bit just setting him up
02:31
setting them up setting them up so that
02:34
the Turks handled that extraordinarily
02:35
well they have an effective intelligence
02:37
service as you can see by just every
02:39
aspect of this the way they played it
02:41
getting the listening device inside the
02:43
consulate so that they could hear
02:44
everything going on just all of the
02:46
above you you look at it and realize
02:47
that they’re they’re quite sophisticated
02:49
in their capabilities so that was sort
02:53
interrupt I just I have to ask this
02:54
question why would the Turks feel that
02:58
the Khashoggi case was sufficiently
03:00
important that they’d be willing to tip
03:02
their hand that they had bugged the
03:04
Saudi embassy that strikes me as being a
03:06
high price to pay agreed
03:09
and and that’s a very insightful
03:10
question and exactly correct they they
03:13
were giving up a major thing because now
03:15
the Saudis known since then they’ve
03:17
they’ve done a sweep of the of the
03:19
consulate they’ve found these bugs so
03:21
they know precisely the methodology used
03:24
so they would that methodology was
03:26
probably used elsewhere including say
03:29
the embassy for example in Ankara and
03:32
and so the Saudis have have since been
03:35
able to figure that out and probably
03:37
cleaned out pretty much all of it so the
03:40
the Turks were willing to give up their
03:42
listening device program their
03:45
intelligence gathering program that
03:46
would have been of considerable value to
03:48
them on this operation now the why of it
03:51
I think is quite clear and conclusive
03:52
it’s essentially be multiple layers
03:55
first of all Turkey essentially runs the
03:59
mother brother Muslim Brotherhood so
04:00
there it’s a tool of of Turkey now at
04:05
this point and so this person was out of
04:08
the Muslim Brotherhood khashoggi so it’s
04:10
somebody that was one of theirs if you
04:12
will but also more importantly the Turks
04:17
now with essentially being in a position
04:20
under Aragon that they are trying to
04:24
reinstate
04:25
and kind of a new Ottoman Empire and the
04:29
Saudis are at loggerheads their
04:32
competitors and Aragon cannot reinstate
04:35
the out of an empire as long as the
04:37
Saudis are there so he has to damage
04:40
that and he also wants to create a wedge
04:43
between the United States and Saudi
04:45
Arabia which it has been effective at
04:48
that so this is why a year ago it was
04:50
very clear to me that how this was
04:52
essentially going to turn out and I was
04:54
predicting back then late last year that
04:57
what would happen is they would say well
04:59
the Saudi Crown Prince is going to be
05:02
found you know not having known any of
05:04
this and that there would be a person or
05:07
two condemned to death out of this
05:08
because then you can you know there’s
05:10
closure on it the guilty people were
05:11
located they were given a very harsh
05:13
penalty and so we can wash our hands of
05:16
it and all go back to normal and that’s
05:18
precisely how this is played out
05:20
they just got out of court yesterday I
05:23
believe on this case and what happened
05:25
is five people were condemned to death I
05:28
was predicting one or two or three you
05:31
know just a handful of people and 11
05:34
were arrested and tried five were
05:37
convicted of death and three more were
05:40
sentenced to a combined total of 24
05:43
years so we’re not sure they haven’t
05:45
been expressed on that and the others
05:47
out of the rest out of the eleven were
05:49
found not guilty so they were released
05:51
now but now this is highly predictable
05:56
on this and this is something that was
05:58
clear that was going to chant precisely
05:59
that way because it achieves every goal
06:02
that Saudi Arabia needs it completely
06:04
clears the Crown Prince it took it back
06:07
to a level of somebody inside and
06:10
intelligence he was a deputy director of
06:13
intelligence so a senior guy that this
06:16
is how this is played out
06:17
who gave the order to go kidnap
06:20
essentially to render back to Saudi
06:25
Arabia khashoggi
06:26
because he was apparently guilty of
06:28
crimes so they wanted to bring him back
06:30
so that he would stand you know under
06:33
the scrutiny of the justice system and
06:35
pay the price for whatever his crimes
06:37
were which you know
06:38
with it I mean I don’t know that that
06:40
was ever actually the plan but this is
06:42
what’s being stated so that it got out
06:45
of control and somebody further down the
06:46
line then gave the order to go ahead and
06:48
kill him on the spot and so not only did
06:51
the Crown Prince not know these weren’t
06:52
the orders that came out of the senior
06:54
guy and intelligence and somewhere down
06:56
below him is where the order was
06:57
actually given to kill rather than to
06:59
capture and render back to to Saudi
07:01
Arabia for justice so that’s how it’s
07:03
all played out and there’s multiple
07:04
layers of cutting off the the crown
07:07
prince from having any direct knowledge
07:08
of this now of course a lot of people
07:11
just trust that you know I would look at
07:13
that but well you know he may or may not
07:15
have known I mean it is one of those
07:17
things where the guy who runs the
07:20
country and the Crown Prince runs Saudi
07:22
Arabia doesn’t to not keep track of
07:25
every little decision to go that goes
07:28
forward and so it is possible that it’s
07:30
spun out of his control and things took
07:33
place it’s also possible that he knew
07:34
you know we may or may not ever find out
07:36
that’s one of the things with these
07:38
sorts of intelligence related things is
07:40
very often you never find out the truth
07:41
and for our purposes the truth this
07:46
sounds bad but it doesn’t matter because
07:48
the end is here this is what it’s going
07:50
to be now those people convicted have
07:52
right of appeal I wouldn’t be surprised
07:54
to see one or two of those convicted to
07:57
death have their sentence commuted what
07:59
has happened here though is the crown
08:03
prince did take an active role behind
08:05
the scenes to one degree or another and
08:07
the solution was approved by the Saudi
08:10
government and so probably there’s some
08:14
of the people convicted maybe people
08:17
that were from a competitive faction
08:20
something like that the the the crown
08:23
prince is going to place the blame where
08:25
it best suits him and I wouldn’t be
08:27
surprised if some of those people were
08:29
from an opposite faction we may find
08:31
that out and so he was kind of cleaning
08:33
things a little bit to his own favor
08:35
bottom line out of this is he will
08:37
further consolidate his position through
08:40
that process he’ll take advantage and
08:42
this is something I’ve referred to
08:43
before this is a tactic used all the
08:45
time when back in the old days in the
08:48
80s Fidel Castro was caught dealing in
08:51
cocaine there were a lot of photographs
08:53
and videos that they’ve taken of of
08:56
Colombians flying in cocaine and that
08:58
the uniforms people picking it up and
09:02
putting it in speedboats and sending it
09:04
off to Florida and things so when he got
09:06
caught dealing what he did is this
09:08
number eight addthis this judicial case
09:11
ended up shooting four people the who
09:13
were the four people he shot they were
09:15
all of twenty-two the Guardia his
09:17
assistant and and Arnaldo of the main
09:19
one of the main generals and his main
09:20
assistant those are the four people he
09:22
shot and why didn’t he shoot him were
09:24
they involved yeah did he know of course
09:26
he did of this sort of thing you don’t
09:27
bring millions of dollars into a little
09:29
island of of ten million people on Cuba
09:32
without caps are having known so what
09:35
did he do though he saw them they were
09:36
competitors for him he didn’t like their
09:39
popularity among the troops and people
09:41
and they were powerful and knew a lot
09:43
and so that was a good way to get rid of
09:45
any potential competitor now that’s
09:47
going to be used in a similar fashion
09:49
here by the Crown Prince
09:50
so he’s clean the slate a little bit
09:53
tipped things in his favor cleaned his
09:55
name which he may have in fact been
09:57
innocent of actually knowing the details
09:59
who knows someone might have got a
10:01
little bit overly aggressive in this
10:03
operation to try and impress him with
10:05
with their skill or whatever but and it
10:08
was set up such that they clearly had
10:11
thought this through and like I said
10:12
they had somebody who was an
10:14
impersonator who looked like physically
10:16
like a show you take his clothes and
10:18
walk out so I mean that was clearly the
10:20
plan but the turks having given up that
10:22
that that capability of listening in and
10:26
at the consulate and probably the
10:28
embassy and who knows what other
10:29
facility that the saudis have worldwide
10:32
or in that region at least the they were
10:34
for sure targeted by the turks and if
10:36
the turks can get in there they would
10:37
have and now the saudis know their
10:39
methodology precisely so the turks paid
10:42
a big price to do what they did and now
10:44
when it’s all turned out they had a year
10:46
of criticism of saudi arabia it did
10:50
create a lot of stress on the
10:51
relationship that president Trump has
10:53
with the crown prince and Saudi Arabia
10:55
in the United States and so it did
10:57
create a lot of problems however that is
10:59
now pretty much going to be settled I
11:01
think you’ll see I stick with what I
11:04
originally
11:05
I think we are going to see some
11:06
executions out of this they’re saying
11:08
lethal injection which is an interesting
11:11
difference normally they use a sword to
11:14
cut off the heads of people there’s an
11:16
official executioner in Saudi Arabia I
11:18
think that is also deeply significant
11:21
lethal injection is not a process used
11:24
in Saudi Arabia as I said they cut heads
11:26
off so that is some sort of compromise
11:30
behind the scenes to all of this again
11:33
we may or may not find out what that is
11:35
but it’s to make the death of these
11:38
people at least a little bit more
11:40
respectable so that is some sort of
11:42
compromise behind the scenes as to how
11:44
these people will get killed again I
11:46
wouldn’t be surprised if we wanted to
11:48
get off or have their sentence commuted
11:50
to long prison terms versus death those
11:53
three people convicted of the 24 years
11:55
combined that’s probably what they’re
11:57
gonna serve out so I think that’s the
12:00
way we’ll play it out but I there’s
12:01
going to be some executions at least a
12:03
couple so that’s how that’s going to
12:07
play out and then it’s clean slate this
12:09
is done everything has been accomplished
12:11
that they need and the fact is the
12:12
United States needs to have a good
12:15
relationship with Saudi Arabia so it
12:18
there’s the Democrats are going to
12:20
scream over this because they’re close
12:22
to the Muslim Brotherhood they’re
12:24
actually in agreement with Turkey on
12:26
this they support Muslim Brotherhood
12:28
efforts in many ways there’s a lot of
12:30
Muslim Brotherhood people still involved
12:32
from the previous administration under
12:36
Obama’s that are left hold overs from
12:38
there that are still very cooperative
12:41
with Muslim Brotherhood so you have the
12:43
two factions here in the United States
12:44
but basically the Democrats aren’t going
12:49
to be able to say too much they’ll
12:50
scream we’ll hear as the as the news
12:52
cycle hits they’re all home on Christmas
12:56
break right now are we hearing the
12:57
screaming now which again I you know
13:00
this is not an accident as to the timing
13:02
I think that’s on purpose I think it was
13:05
clever on the part of the Saudis to have
13:08
it come out now a day or two after all
13:10
of Congress went on break so we you know
13:14
we’ll hear about this probably to some
13:16
degree after the New Year’s but the new
13:17
cycle is going to be over
13:18
it’ll all be done back in Saudi Arabia
13:20
rather quickly and so it was it has been
13:23
handled well after the fact by the
13:26
government of Saudi Arabia the Trump
13:28
administration itself I think is
13:30
essentially hands-off letting this play
13:32
out but it’s now played out it’s it’s
13:34
played out in a way that that lets the
13:37
status quo continue forward so that’s
13:38
going to be essentially the end of it
13:40
now I wouldn’t be surprised to see these
13:42
executions take place quickly do we will
13:45
see how how fast they can get through
13:47
the appeal process assuming they appeal
13:50
or I mean it’s conceivable that the deal
13:52
has been made such that they all accept
13:54
their fate and move on with life except
13:58
for the people executed of course so
13:59
we’ll we’ll see him see how that end of
14:02
it goes but it’s done deal it’s done
14:04
deal now and like I said highly
14:06
predictable we talked about this a year
14:07
ago so would it be safe to say if you if
14:11
we were to look at the scoreboard that
14:13
nothing’s changed for the United States
14:14
and Saudi Arabia but Turkey took a bunch
14:16
of hit points because they there was a
14:19
giant cost in terms of their
14:21
surveillance programs and in fact it had
14:24
no at the end of the day it actually did
14:27
not achieve any of those strategic or
14:29
tactical goals agreed a short term a
14:32
huge success for Turkey long term a huge
14:35
failure for Turkey like I say did the
14:40
Democrats there now that that are
14:42
essentially in in bed with the Muslim
14:46
Brotherhood and Turkey on this at least
14:48
philosophically really don’t have any
14:50
long term animal out of this and and you
14:53
know President Trump has essentially
14:55
built of Teflon for these issues and the
14:59
stuff just bounces off of him and plus
15:01
his hand was never really involved I
15:04
mean he clearly had nothing to do with
15:07
khashoggi getting killed had nothing to
15:09
do with any of those sorts of things so
15:12
you know it’s not going to be anything
15:14
that can be used against Trump Saudi
15:16
Arabia has worked its way out of it and
15:19
they’re in the clear for now and it’s
15:21
just going to be sailing forward so yeah
15:23
a big I would say overall long term big
15:26
loss for Turkey or certainly a
15:28
significant loss for Turkey but
15:31
if they can build upon it and come up
15:33
with another thing or two to target
15:36
Saudi Arabia then it won’t be in vain
15:37
and that’s where I’m sure they’re
15:39
spending their time right now is trying
15:41
to figure out how to create another
15:43
issue of this sort against Saudi Arabia
15:46
so that you know if it’s happened once
15:48
you know okay it worked itself out if it
15:50
happened as a second time and a third
15:51
time then it just it’s a cumulative
15:54
negative effect so that’s what turkeys
15:57
working on right now you can be assured
15:58
that their intelligence services are are
16:01
looking how to create another issue that
16:03
will drive a wedge between the United
16:04
States and Saudi Arabia and damage Saudi
16:07
Arabia
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