Barry Webb on Turkish ambitions to establish a new Ottoman empire.

 

 


brad johnson here for americans from
00:03
intelligence reform I’m speaking with
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Barry Webb author former NSA Arabist and
00:08
senior fellow at Americans for
00:11
intelligence reform and we just
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published an op-ed at the website until
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reformed org that Barry wrote that I
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think is extremely interesting so wanted
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to touch on that today briefly and let
00:23
Barry kind of lay this out for you the
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title of the piece is air – GaN set
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stage for Libya invasions so Barry go
00:31
ahead and why have you concluded that
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that’s what Aragon the president of
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Turkey is up to and that he intends to
00:37
invade Libya or take over Libya okay
00:41
first a quick background on what’s going
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on Olivia you have basically two
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governments you have the so-called
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government of the agreement in Tripoli
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which is headed by a fellow named Suraj
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which the EU and the UN has accorded
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quote/unquote international you know
00:59
recognition and credibility on the other
01:02
side you have a parliament that had was
01:04
elected way back and 2014 I think it was
01:07
in but they’re in exile now in Tobruk
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because the Muslim Brotherhood didn’t
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accept them and they’re aided by a
01:17
retired general in half jar who runs
01:20
what he calls the Libyan National Army
01:23
well the Libyan National Army has taken
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over most of the country and they’ve
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cleaned out most of the Isis and al
01:29
Qaeda CELTA that they could find but the
01:32
city of Tripoli under this government of
01:36
the government agreement Suraj is a
01:40
hotbed it’s a Woodstock for terrorists
01:42
of all sorts Isis al Qaeda Muslim
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Brotherhood Ansar al-sharia
01:47
so these are the two sides now even if
01:51
you look at who’s supporting who the
01:55
half term is being supported by Egypt
01:57
Saudi Arabia and the UAE and to a lesser
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extent France and Russia and the other
02:04
side the Tripoli side is where all of
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the terrorists are is supported by the
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world’s top three supporters state
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sponsors of terrorism Turkey Iran and
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Qatar
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so that tells you should tell you who
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the good guys are and the bad guys are
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now course Turkey has plans for he heard
02:26
again the route the current ruler in
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Turkey wants to re-establish the Ottoman
02:32
Empire as the next Caliphate and so part
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of that has to be to take over all of
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the Arab countries including Libya and
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he plans to do this through his alliance
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with the Muslim Brotherhood so that’s
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his motivation for supporting Tripoli
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now after there were this is a war on
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Tripoli it’s been kind of a stalemate
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for several months all during the summer
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in the fall but with the entry of a
03:02
thousand Russian mercenaries working for
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a company called Waggoner it has shifted
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the balance of power and the Libyan
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National Army under general Hefner has
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been making gains and the Tripoli
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government is kind of hanging on by
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threads and to so to prevent their fall
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herb again has decided that turkey needs
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to intervene more forcibly they have you
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bear you mentioned specifically that
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Aragon is claiming there’s a large
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Turkish minority that represents maybe a
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quarter of the total population of Libya
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and that he’s using that and the age-old
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excuse like Hitler did with dramatic
03:45
people in different countries to invade
03:47
in order to save their there there’s
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ethnic subgroups that are in those
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countries so is that is how is that
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playing out with the government in
03:56
Tripoli and Aragon and how is that
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moving forward and where would you place
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the impact that that has since Turkey is
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a NATO member how is that going to play
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because that that puts him in opposition
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to you know NATO policies by invading
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and taking over a local country what can
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we only help for five minutes okay first
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of all the total population of Libya is
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about five million or taganas
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named that there’s a million Turks
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living in Libya and of course he
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therefore like you said and like Hitler
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said you know half a century ago he has
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the right to defend these Turks and that
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this is justification for intervening
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more forcibly and openly in in Libya now
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the Libyan National Army what they’re
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saying is well these Turks are left over
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from the old Ottoman Empire one hundred
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years ago and you know there’s like
04:57
third fourth generation now that have
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been born and raised in Libya they speak
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the Libyan dialect and they’re Libyan
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citizens so they’re not jerks so they
05:06
kind of reject that view now Turkey
05:11
intervening forcibly or openly into
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Tripoli or into Libya I like like
05:17
they’re doing now he he just got
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approval from the Turkish Parliament to
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go ahead and and send troops into Libya
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so you’ve got France which is a NATO
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country supporting one side you’ve got
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Turkey which is a NATO member supporting
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the other side in Libya so yes it puts
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NATO in a very very difficult position
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and of course the United States also as
05:43
a part of NATO and it’s the kind of
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leader of NATO is also in a difficult
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position
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so you’re my own personal feeling is
05:52
that we should cut our ties with Turkey
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and go ahead and openly support the
05:58
half-door group because the city of
06:01
Tripoli is a Woodstock for terrorists
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and if we you know claim to be wanting
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to win the war on terror
06:08
I think taking that out would be a step
06:11
we should take well that’s not I don’t
06:13
think really on that on the table here
06:15
for the for the Trump administration
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what how do you see this actually
06:19
playing out with with arrogance and
06:23
tensions it looks like he’s basically
06:25
moving for the most part unchallenged so
06:28
assuming that he’s going to be able to
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move these troops into Libya is he going
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to be able to control the government in
06:34
Tripoli as to the extent he needs and
06:37
since there are some
06:39
sore points between them about the
06:41
Turkish population and all of these
06:43
things and what about the opposition
06:45
force that controls the rest of Libya
06:47
outside of the capital well how are
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those three factions going to play out
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going forward what’s your prediction for
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the next year let’s say the only
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prediction I can make is more and more
07:00
escalation the Libyan National Army has
07:02
promised to punish the Turks to do to
07:07
destroy any Turkish ship that brings in
07:11
yellow fighters soldiers cetera and to
07:15
take them on the question is how much of
07:19
an investment to start you want to put
07:21
in it’s going to take more than the few
07:23
hundred that they’ve so far assigned to
07:27
triple to Tripoli and then if they do if
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they do escalate that what does Russia
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do because they’ve got these you know
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this on 1,000 Quantico Russian
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mercenaries fighting for the Libyan
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National Army now Russia also has
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interest there so what does Russia do
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and then also another question is what
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does Egypt do Egypt has already said
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that yeah that they cannot allow Libya
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to be controlled by any outside power
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and they cannot allow Libya to be you
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know just a a hotbed for terrorists and
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because that threatens their national
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security as well so you know is Egypt
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going to enter in full force – so to
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answer your question what I see is more
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escalation in Libya so within the Arab
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world what are there another the two
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factions that we’ve mentioned say Egypt
08:25
on the one side that does not want
08:27
Turkish intervention to control Libya
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and Turkey has its supporters
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there’s always Iran which is kind of a
08:34
frenemy with with Turkey they’ve got
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some areas where they can work with each
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other and some areas where they’re
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definitely definitely in opposition so
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how in the Arabic world the
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arabic-speaking world is there any
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generalization you can make other than
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those
08:51
two factions sort of pro turkey taking
08:54
over an anti turkey taking over as they
08:56
what are the undercurrents first of all
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within Libya itself we mentioned of
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course the Tripoli faction and the
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Libyan National Army which is base in
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Benghazi so this is basically Tripoli is
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on the western part of Libya and
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Pangasius and the east part of Libya so
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it’s kind of an east-west battle within
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Libya but the other faction of Libya are
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the tribes and clans and the southern
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parts of the country and they originally
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come out in support of the Libyan
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National Army and became in response to
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the Turkish intervention now toured
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again recently dropped in oh Tunisia we
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mentioned that in this article also and
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walked in unannounced and assuming that
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the Tunisians would automatically
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balance great to IMF support his
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position in in Libya but they didn’t
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they demonstrated in the streets and the
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you know social media kind of went wild
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so he kind of failed there now this
10:01
article that came out in l20 yesterday
10:03
saying that several countries have
10:07
supported turkeys move into Libya and
10:10
they mentioned of course Qatar which is
10:14
a close ally of Turkey and Sudan which
10:18
has bit of surprise and then they said
10:21
oh macha Roberto otterby which the
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Arabic Maghreb in Arabic lingo refers to
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several countries first to Libya Tunisia
10:32
Algeria and Morocco and Mauritania the
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article didn’t specify which of those
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countries supported early dance move you
10:42
know that Tripoli that the Tripoli
10:45
government would have who the others are
10:48
I don’t really know possibly Algeria but
10:56
it seems that most of the Arab world my
10:59
impression is that most of the Arab
11:00
world is against Turkish intervention in
11:03
Libya okay yeah
11:05
they’re probably afraid of the booty
11:07
love the ottoman empire being reimpose
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so you know I guess that that makes some
11:11
overall sense one group we have not
11:14
mentioned that you did mention in your
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article is the Kurds so I would say if
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you could give your thoughts on where
11:21
the Kurds stand on all this and any
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final thoughts and we’ll finish up with
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that well the Kurds are going to be
11:26
against are gonna be for anybody that’s
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against Turkey clearly the other much of
11:36
Cyprus earlier in in in in your question
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series of questions if people have to
11:42
remember that 1974 Turkey and paid his
11:44
Cyprus and they took control of about a
11:47
third of it they raped and ethnic
11:50
cleansed every Greek that they could get
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a hold of and Aragon has threatened in
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some of his speeches to do another
11:59
Cyprus in in in Syria and he started it
12:04
looks like he’s doing the same thing now
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in Libya to curve out more territory for
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what he believes is a new Ottoman Empire
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since that’s not really being recognized
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or at least focused on in the United
12:20
States is there anything that’s going to
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stop him from at least expanding those
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ambitions and and starting to absorb
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some nearby countries into the new
12:30
Ottoman Empire the only thing that could
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stop him would be the emerging the
12:37
United States Russia could if Turkey was
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not a member of NATO because they have
12:45
an ancient animosity 800 years the
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constants been fighting each other but
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because of his membership in NATO that’s
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kind of access a shield protecting him
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from aggression by anyone else so he is
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playing or began to skillfully playing
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the United States and Russia off on each
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other
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it was NATO membership and there now
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with her serene Ian thing going crazy
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its I can’t see anything stopping him
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right now okay alright let’s leave it
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with that then
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web thank you so much thank you
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[Music]
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you
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