February 12, 2020

Brad Johnson Feb 10 the Chinese economy and the flu


 

Brad Johnson it is February the 10th of
00:03
2020 the Wu hen flu is still the main
00:08
item in the news pretty much everywhere
00:10
there was a great question from a reader
00:13
at Vlad about what the economic fallout
00:16
of this could be have you got any
00:18
insight into that yeah I
00:21
and it was an excellent question very
00:23
insightful and I appreciate it and my
00:25
previous discussion of what was going on
00:28
in China my focus was probably you know
00:30
far more leaning towards the political
00:33
aspects of this versus the economic
00:35
although I did kind of mention both so
00:37
kind of to clarify on that and and this
00:39
is one of the points that your reader
00:41
brought out is that with and the numbers
00:44
we’ve discussed are 85% infection rate
00:47
and 15% kill rate maybe 15 to 20
00:50
somewhere in there so and we don’t have
00:53
from numbers that have come out yet on
00:55
this one little point on that there’s
00:59
news that broke early this morning it’s
01:00
coming out of Taipei and London both
01:02
that there’s they found in wins where
01:06
they annales analyze what’s going on
01:07
there that there’s a very high
01:08
concentration of Karpis carbon sulfate
01:14
which is a byproduct of cremation and
01:17
they’re saying that this this would be
01:19
an indicator not proof but an indicator
01:22
that there’s massive cremations taking
01:24
place centered on no other place than
01:27
Wuhan China which is the origin of this
01:29
flu so if that’s true of course we’ve
01:32
always speculated that the Chinese are
01:35
vastly under understating the true
01:38
number of people killed and they’re
01:40
saying today in the news 900 which
01:41
probably you know if this is true with
01:45
the cremation and all of that
01:46
adding the 0 at the end which is the
01:48
formula I always use 9,000 is probably
01:50
much closer to the truth okay now for
01:53
the economic things one of the things
01:54
that your reader pointed out as I said
01:56
was the the economic impact absolutely
01:59
true if there is indeed an 85 percent
02:01
infection rate all those people are
02:03
knocked out the economy of China will be
02:06
brought to its knees in the earlier
02:08
report where I was discussing this my
02:10
point out
02:11
of this was that it had not spread and
02:14
wasn’t completely covering blanketing
02:17
China and and beyond the borders he was
02:19
still concentrated in a very small area
02:22
however the Chinese and the American
02:25
counterparts had already discussed the
02:27
fact that they weren’t going to be able
02:29
to hold up their end of the trade
02:31
agreements that had been made although
02:34
the Chinese did immediately come out and
02:35
reduce some tariffs and things like that
02:37
but their agricultural purchases and
02:40
things of that nature weren’t going to
02:41
go forward my point out of that was that
02:44
it was so early in the process and the
02:46
numbers that the Chinese were reporting
02:48
were so low that these you know there
02:50
were 300 deaths at that time Anna and a
02:53
couple thousand infected I mean 300
02:55
thousand a couple thousand infected is
02:57
so small that it could not possibly have
02:59
that impact so the point being why would
03:02
the Chinese have come over to the
03:03
Americans and say hey this flu thing is
03:05
serious we’re 300 deaths and and and two
03:09
or three thousand infected is not
03:11
serious so that means it’s just another
03:14
indicator of the depth of the
03:15
seriousness of this that’s truly going
03:17
on behind the scenes versus what the
03:19
Chinese are publicly mentioning which
03:22
again also the present economic advisor
03:25
and the Secretary of Agriculture both
03:27
saying you know publicly that that that
03:31
the this is not going to be able to go
03:33
forward at the greed upon levels on the
03:35
economic levels that’s tacit
03:38
acknowledgement that the United States
03:40
recognizes that the true depth of the
03:42
problem in China is much larger
03:44
otherwise you know like I say a couple
03:46
thousand in fact it just isn’t big
03:48
enough to have that overall economic
03:50
impact now as I said the point of view
03:52
of your reader that was you know dead-on
03:55
is that if indeed this spreads which it
03:57
looks like it’s going to be very
03:58
difficult to contain with that infection
04:01
rate if it goes forward that way it’s
04:04
going to be a disaster I mean if it goes
04:06
China wide I mean there will be people
04:09
as the Ring goes out there’ll be new
04:10
infections and at the center there’ll be
04:12
the ones that are getting over it
04:14
apparently it’s about a two-week period
04:15
of time to recover or die from the flu
04:18
so that it’ll be two rings moving
04:21
outward together but behind
04:24
they’ll just be though at a 15 or 20
04:27
percent death rate I mean that’s just
04:29
disastrous and there’ll be key people
04:32
that will be killed now it does
04:33
concentrate all the reports show that it
04:35
does concentrate which is consistent
04:37
with historical events of this nature
04:39
that’s the old and the young the weak
04:41
that are going to be the most
04:42
susceptible to dying over but
04:44
nevertheless people being pulled out of
04:46
the workforce for a couple weeks in
04:47
masses is will be massively destructive
04:50
damaging to the Chinese economy so it’s
04:53
it’s it’s absolutely something that will
04:56
be bad on the political level which is
04:59
kind of where I concentrate normally one
05:02
of my other points was on this I the
05:04
Chinese government the people that are
05:06
in power are going to have everything
05:08
they need the high military people the
05:10
high political Communist Party people
05:12
they’re not probably going to be
05:14
susceptible to this and part of the
05:16
point out of this that I wanted to make
05:18
last time and I want to clarify now is
05:20
they don’t care how many people die in a
05:23
communist system and this is something
05:25
most in the West we don’t really
05:27
recognize readily but in the communist
05:29
system you as an individual aren’t
05:32
important you belong to the party if the
05:35
party says it’s time for you to die you
05:37
die this is this is the Communist Party
05:39
of Chairman Mao and Chairman Mao if
05:42
everyone recalls was the guy that killed
05:45
millions of Chinese by he had this
05:48
campaign which is to melt down pots and
05:50
pans and make steel because they need to
05:52
march into the future and become more
05:55
industrial and what happened was
05:57
nationwide everyone got into this
05:59
meltdown the pots and make steel thing
06:01
and they were all doing that and not
06:04
harvesting the food so when the harvest
06:06
didn’t take place a lot of people start
06:09
to death and at the end of all that
06:10
Chairman Mao famously said well okay
06:12
yeah a lot of people died but we learned
06:14
in his skill so we’re marching forward
06:16
and that’s just how the Chinese view it
06:19
I mean it’s sort of their perspective
06:21
but also this is tenfold greater that
06:24
way because of the fact that it’s the
06:26
Communist Party they just don’t care so
06:28
they may look at this as a reduction in
06:31
population is something they’ve been
06:33
after for a long time and then also as a
06:36
means to establish even
06:38
or control within society and move into
06:40
areas that they haven’t controlled
06:41
completely so that was that was the two
06:44
halves of it so like I said this is
06:46
going to be a disaster one way or
06:48
another never let a crisis go to waste I
06:51
think that seems exactly right
06:53
thank you very much Brad Johnson

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