February 15, 2020

Brad Johnson on Turkish moves in Syria


 

Brad Johnson it is February 12th 5:20
00:04
yes yeah just always like to check that
00:06
February the 12th of 2020 and I saw you
00:10
know thanks to my amazing readers at
00:12
flyed tempest who send me in just a
00:15
tremendous amount of really important
00:18
news articles and and so on so on from
00:21
ranging from the geopolitical to the
00:23
effects of Islam in the West and of
00:25
course communism on the west and this
00:27
this was a memory clip I think it’s
00:29
there too one specifically threatening
00:32
it looked like he was saying that he
00:34
will accept any excuse to wage all-out
00:36
war I mean it was like any tyrant he
00:40
wasn’t saying directly I’m gonna go to
00:42
war against Syria in totality he’s
00:44
saying if Syria does anything to stop me
00:48
from waging war on Syria then I will
00:51
consider it a casus belli to wage total
00:53
war on Syria least that’s how I read it
00:55
please tell me how you read it yeah an
00:58
interesting situation interesting
01:00
development I mean just let me lay the
01:01
groundwork for it first basically you’ve
01:04
you’ve got Syria the say northern third
01:08
or maybe quarter somewhere there was is
01:11
traditionally been where the Kurds have
01:13
been and that’s where the United States
01:14
was previously active before our
01:16
withdrawal now that is all in the
01:20
northern part of Syria
01:21
which to the north of Syria is turkey so
01:23
it abuts Turkey on the other side where
01:25
the Kurds are then you have the area
01:28
around Aleppo which is to the north and
01:30
west in in Syria and that’s what’s been
01:35
fought over refugees know that that’s
01:37
still being fought over and Syrian
01:39
troops that are you know Assad Syrian
01:42
troops are moving back into that area
01:44
and there’s so there’s a lot of fighting
01:46
going on and there’s a bunch of groups
01:48
that are active in that area so it’s not
01:50
like clear one side against the other
01:53
sort of conflict so there’s a lot of
01:56
fighting and the in the in the Kurdish
02:00
area which is in the the north from the
02:03
central part all the way out to the
02:05
eastern part of of Syria that curtisha’s
02:07
zone that’s where the Turks did a 30
02:11
mile bang
02:12
along the Turkish border so they’ve
02:14
they’ve they’ve gone into Syria to
02:18
control that land now they are saying
02:20
that their justification for that is
02:22
because they’ve got I don’t know how
02:24
many of they’re saying now but millions
02:26
of Syrian refugees that are which is
02:29
almost certainly exaggerated whatever
02:31
the number is that are in Turkey hiding
02:34
out so they want to take control of that
02:36
area so that they can bring the Syrians
02:38
back in now that’s the Turkish position
02:40
the point of conflict now which air to
02:44
gun is talking about in his speech which
02:45
two things on that one a lot of what
02:47
he’s saying is for domestic consumption
02:49
he wants to be the strong man and Pro
02:52
Turkey and all of these sorts of things
02:53
so it is being played for domestic
02:56
consumption also though however he does
02:58
believe all of that he wants to
03:00
reinstate the Ottoman Empire and so he’s
03:03
trying to expand his borders and areas
03:05
of influence in every way he can very
03:07
active in a number of areas so having
03:09
this strip of Syria is a great interim
03:13
step into taking far greater control of
03:16
that area and it allows him to use that
03:18
area fill it with what he’s done is a
03:22
lot of former Isis fighters and people
03:24
like that who want to come in and kill
03:26
Kurds so he’s achieving multiple things
03:30
out of this by doing that now the stance
03:32
he’s just taken the hard light stance
03:34
he’s just taken is that if anyone
03:36
attacks any of the observation posts the
03:39
Turkish militaries has put up in that
03:42
area
03:42
if anyone attacks anything like that
03:43
they’re going to take that as an attack
03:45
on Turkey and respond in kind that’s
03:47
essentially the statement that he made
03:49
so as the Syrian troops move in that is
03:53
the potential conflict now an
03:55
interesting aspect of all of this now of
03:57
course everybody points out Turkey’s
03:59
part of NATO Syria is not now of course
04:02
Syria is heavily backed by Russia
04:04
Russian troops are in there supporting
04:06
the Syrian army and Russian mercenaries
04:10
are in you know lending strength to the
04:13
Syrian troops so it’s it’s turning into
04:17
a very interesting conflict in that way
04:19
so they’re moving back in and of course
04:21
their goal is to take back all of Syria
04:24
into Syria
04:26
the Turks have claimed this land and
04:28
their this 30-mile strip along the
04:30
border which is as I said it’s
04:32
essentially in the Kurdish areas of
04:34
Syria they’re not gonna they’re not
04:37
going to give it up and because that is
04:39
all part of his his long term goal or
04:41
heir to Ghana and turkeys long term goal
04:43
so it’s it’s it’s shaping up into a
04:45
difficult difficult interesting conflict
04:47
what will happen if Syrian troops on
04:51
Syrian land get into conflict with
04:54
Turkish troops who are occupying a
04:56
portion of Syria and I don’t believe you
04:59
know of course I don’t know the ins and
05:00
outs of the legal system for NATO but I
05:02
don’t believe that would invoke the
05:05
protections under NATO where they’re
05:07
being attacked and therefore the NATO
05:09
countries would come to their aid I
05:10
don’t believe it does because it’s an
05:12
occupying force in a foreign country and
05:15
I don’t think that’s really covered by
05:18
this agreement so I mean I’m not sure
05:20
that a precise one for one thing like
05:22
this has ever happened before so it
05:24
hasn’t been tested but that’s where we
05:26
find ourselves right now now Aragon is
05:28
not gonna back down but I don’t think
05:30
Russian back troops back Syrian backed
05:32
by Russian troops are gonna back down
05:34
either so I think the possibility of
05:37
conflict is really going up quickly and
05:40
of course the Turks have put these
05:42
observation points out in areas that are
05:45
contested so them not being fired upon
05:48
would probably be a fairly low
05:50
percentage shot I think I think that’s
05:52
almost certainly going to happen so and
05:54
you will see the Turks they’ve already
05:55
been moving troops and mechanized units
05:59
up to the to this area up along the
06:01
border and into serious so they’re
06:03
preparing for this to turn into a
06:05
conflict Turkey and Russia have long
06:08
been at each other’s throats in the FATA
06:10
a cup two or three wars in history and
06:13
so they’re perfectly willing to fight
06:15
each other they don’t like each other
06:16
and so I can see where this is easily
06:19
going to turn into a shooting war right
06:21
now at least
06:22
other than who’s already there I don’t
06:24
see this widening that much bringing in
06:27
a lot of other players president Trump’s
06:30
position on this has been these guys
06:33
have had a long simmering conflict let
06:35
them fight it out settle it among
06:36
themselves and there’s really no
06:38
percentage in this for
06:39
you know who if we help somebody or get
06:42
involved you know how do we win by doing
06:44
that that’s basically his position the
06:46
only little area where he’s kind of
06:50
softened on that is he is still trying
06:52
to send aid in to the Kurds in this area
06:54
who have been longtime friends and
06:56
allies of the United States and done
06:57
quite a bit quite a few things jointly
06:58
with us taking out Isis that sort of
07:01
stuff fighting alongside and faithfully
07:03
well good troops that have fought
07:05
alongside of us so that is the one
07:08
weakness of this whole thing that I hope
07:09
doesn’t get forgotten in the mess but at
07:11
least at this point the Kurds are on the
07:13
side and the main area of conflict is
07:15
the Russians and Syrians on one side and
07:17
Turkey pretty much by itself on the
07:20
other so now there’s militias and
07:22
different people involved but they’re
07:24
the small players the important people
07:26
are Russians and Syrians and the Turks
07:29
so in other words to a degree it is him
07:32
advancing positions and saying I dare
07:35
you to attack this position and then
07:38
moving forward and saying I dare you to
07:39
attack this position yeah there’s there
07:42
some of that going on and I mean these
07:43
positions that he’s saying if you attack
07:46
them or fight back or all in Syria none
07:49
of them are in Turkey nobody’s moving
07:50
into Turkey it’s all in Syria well maybe
07:54
with any luck you’ll kill annoy the
07:56
Russians enough to tell that they’ll
07:59
push them back a little bit that was
08:01
really great thank you very much I think
08:02
that Turkey is one of those stories that
08:04
that goes unwatched and is not people
08:08
don’t recognize the importance because I
08:10
mean historically Turkey is usually a
08:13
world power yes it is and it’s it’s a
08:16
very important thing it’s something I’ve
08:18
talked about quite a little bit but
08:20
written about a lot more I do a lot of
08:21
op eds on what Turkey’s up to and if
08:24
anyone’s interested they well certainly
08:26
they can follow me on Brad Johnson on
08:28
and YouTube or go to my website intel
08:31
reformed org and you can follow and get
08:34
on the the list so you’ll receive the
08:35
letter that we put out and we put a lot
08:37
of information in that including the
08:39
op-eds and different things so Intel
08:41
reformed org or Brad Johnson on YouTube
08:43
highly both highly recommended thank you
08:45
very much for Agilent

 

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