September 15, 2020

Turkey now wants to close the Bosporus


brad johnson it is september 11 of 2020
00:03
and uh the the
00:06
the action never stops in turkey um what
00:09
is the current situation there please
00:12
well a couple of interesting reports
00:13
coming out in the in the media
00:18
right now it’s kind of russia and turkey
00:20
heating up i would say
00:22
and uh there’s a lot of other players in
00:25
this this is a
00:26
mess that we’ve been talking about for a
00:28
while the center of all of this
00:30
is always turkey and right now the
00:33
the turkey is talking about closing the
00:35
boss for us now
00:37
uh understand that’s stunning
00:40
threat uh and essentially that’s where
00:42
it’s a little
00:44
narrow space that where the black sea
00:47
connects up to the rest of the
00:48
mediterranean sea
00:50
now the importance out of that is that
00:52
this would
00:53
target russia russia at the same time
00:57
has at least 14 or 15 warships
01:00
off the coast of syria and this is
01:02
something we’ve talked about before
01:04
so uh syria being on the mediterranean
01:08
side of the bosphorus and the black sea
01:11
fleet
01:11
up for the russian fleet of course being
01:13
on the north side of it so
01:15
they have to go back and forth through
01:18
that
01:18
so for turkey to threaten to close that
01:21
it is a
01:22
huge threat against billions of dollars
01:25
worth of commerce because many of the
01:27
important ports from countries in that
01:30
european countries and
01:32
and east uh east well that certain asian
01:36
countries can
01:36
can go through that so it’s it’s
01:39
significant
01:40
economically but it’s also significant
01:42
militarily
01:43
so that threat by turkey that’s now
01:45
floating out there
01:46
to close that is a big deal it
01:50
i don’t think would be taken laying down
01:52
by anybody
01:54
it is essentially i think could be
01:57
interpreted
01:58
as the start or an act of war
02:02
and uh a russia at a minimum is not
02:05
going to be boxed into the black sea
02:07
so i think russian ships would
02:09
immediately move to
02:11
go through and if fired upon by turkey
02:14
would would be prepared to fire back
02:16
so like i say the 15 ships they’re
02:18
keeping ships moving
02:20
off the coast of syria there’s a and of
02:23
course there’s the other front
02:24
in libya which is on the southern shore
02:28
of the
02:29
mediterranean sea and uh
02:32
so all of that activity with united arab
02:35
emirates
02:36
and egypt and other countries being
02:38
involved in libya with russia being
02:40
involved
02:41
in off the coast of syria and backing
02:43
the regime in syria
02:45
we’re seeing turkey begin to get serious
02:48
pushback on all of these things that
02:50
they’ve been doing that’s so aggressive
02:52
in libya in syria in armenia uh
02:55
azerbaijan armenia border there and
02:56
nagorno-karabakh
02:58
these things are all starting to get
03:00
pushed back as the world
03:01
sees how out of control uh erdogan in
03:04
turkey’s becoming
03:06
and how he’s pushing aggressively in so
03:08
many different areas
03:09
and as i said uh in a previous interview
03:12
the head of the
03:13
israeli mossad their intelligence agency
03:16
has just come out and said
03:17
turkey used to be an ally now they’re a
03:19
strategic threat to the region
03:21
and this is becoming very important and
03:24
each time
03:25
we look at this it gets ratcheted up a
03:27
little bit mainly by
03:29
turkey i would say they’ve begun the
03:31
process
03:32
and as i’ve mentioned many times they
03:35
view these resources around them in
03:37
these areas
03:38
as legitimately theirs and many of the
03:41
arab countries are now pushing back as i
03:43
mentioned
03:44
uae and egypt in particular and they’re
03:46
supporting certain things going on in
03:48
lib in libya for example
03:50
and so that makes turkey then come back
03:53
because
03:54
erdogan views it as his legitimate right
03:56
he
03:57
responds in kind the problem with this
04:00
scenario is
04:02
erdogan and everybody else view
04:05
themselves as fully justified
04:07
so as one of the as as each side kind of
04:10
goes up one notch it it just continues
04:13
to
04:14
heat up and if this threat becomes real
04:16
of the boss first i would say that’s the
04:18
first shot of war
04:19
what would turkey do to enforce it they
04:22
only have one option to enforce it
04:24
because
04:24
you can sail through it they can’t like
04:27
right you know put a net across it or
04:29
something i don’t think so
04:30
even if they did that could be blown out
04:32
of the water pretty easily
04:33
so uh their only option then is would be
04:36
to enforce it with
04:37
with kinetic energy you know take out
04:39
anyone that doesn’t have permission to
04:41
go through take them out and as i said
04:43
i guarantee you i know how the russians
04:44
are for this sort of stuff first thing
04:46
they’ll do is sail ships through to push
04:48
that button
04:49
and see what happens but they will be
04:50
prepared to respond in kind
04:52
if fired upon and you would then have a
04:54
shooting war
04:55
between turkey and russia which you know
04:57
i
04:58
i you know would be not a direct threat
05:01
to the united states of america
05:03
but i don’t know what would turkey then
05:06
try to call upon nato would nato respond
05:09
i mean
05:09
the number of problems and ripple effect
05:12
that would come out of that are enormous
05:14
in essence russia would be in the right
05:17
turkey would be in the wrong
05:19
so would nato support turkey in a case
05:21
like that we’ve already got
05:23
a couple of countries like france in
05:26
particular
05:27
supporting movements against turkey
05:29
we’ve got discussion in nato
05:31
by the european countries going you know
05:34
not so sure if turkey belongs in nato
05:36
anymore
05:36
and they’re certainly nowhere near
05:38
they’re they’re not going to get eu
05:39
membership and they’re not under
05:41
consideration anymore so it’s becoming a
05:43
mess and as i said
05:45
erdogan is not going to back down on
05:47
this he’s going to insist upon getting
05:49
what he wants
05:50
and i don’t think anybody’s going to be
05:52
willing to give it to him
05:54
therefore he’s going to feel the need to
05:56
take it
05:57
and once he moves into that mode of
05:58
taking it what is it what’s the solution
06:01
besides
06:02
uh you know the use of kinetic energy
06:04
which is
06:05
like you know more better known as war
06:07
so again i would say this is ratcheted
06:09
up another notch
06:10
and this is the main hot spot in the
06:13
world
06:14
around turkey that i see right now
06:16
already lots of shooting going on
06:18
and how do you stop that shooting from
06:20
expanding and spinning out of control
06:22
remains to be seen but this is i hope uh
06:25
one of
06:25
the places the most important places
06:28
right now that’s getting a lot of
06:29
attention from national security
06:31
elements here in the united states
06:32
because of the risk
06:34
that’s represented here it makes me
06:36
wonder if part of the
06:38
reason that president trump was able to
06:40
broker these amazing peace deals
06:42
is that people in the region recognize
06:44
that israel
06:45
is a necessary strategic ally with a
06:48
nate like a re-emerging ottoman empire
06:52
in the region
06:53
right makes you wonder i would say even
06:56
without
06:57
this now emerging neo-ottoman empire
07:02
uh issue even without it i mean i think
07:04
the basic question always needs to be
07:05
here in the united states of america
07:07
is the united states safer with a
07:11
democratic stable israel in that
07:14
area and i just i don’t see a scenario
07:17
where you can paint it
07:18
that our national security is worse off
07:21
so it’s just
07:22
and now with this issue this is one of
07:24
this is a perfect example of
07:26
why we’re better off with a stable
07:28
democratic israel
07:29
in that region this is a perfect example
07:31
of it and we’re beginning to see a lot
07:33
of
07:34
uh countries kind of coalesce and
07:37
willing to get along with israel and i
07:39
i speculated previously that one of the
07:41
reasons was we’re seeing these peace
07:43
treaties like uae
07:45
one of the reasons there’s others but
07:46
one of the reasons is because of the
07:48
growing threat of turkey
07:49
and i think the arab countries around
07:51
turkey recognize
07:52
that that’s a direct threat to them
07:54
because arabs were always looked down
07:56
upon by turks during the ottoman empire
07:58
days and so they they know that that’s
08:00
where it would be headed back to
08:02
which is kind of an interesting thing
08:03
since arabs originated islam
08:06
not the turks but uh this is this is the
08:09
world we find ourselves in so
08:11
a headed interesting direction but it is
08:13
certainly a flash point that
08:14
has got to be watched and this could
08:16
turn ugly at the drop of a hat
08:38
so
08:44
you
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