Update on Armenia

Azerbaijan has won the battle with Armenia and Erdogan has his pipeline. But what is Russia doing by sending in peacekeeping troops?


[Music]
00:00
brad johnson december 26 of 2020
00:03
and uh i thought the whole azerbaijan
00:07
armenia thing was a done deal i thought
00:09
turkey won it
00:10
and uh you know erdogan was dancing
00:13
around
00:13
on the on the ruins and the spoils is
00:16
there more to that
00:18
there is there’s some interesting kind
00:19
of aftermath developments i guess is the
00:21
best way to describe it i would say your
00:23
your uh your your outline there is
00:26
correct that essentially
00:28
the the the azerbaijanis backed and
00:31
basically
00:32
run as a turkish operation have won what
00:35
they won
00:36
was the larger swath of these three
00:39
and districts that are generally
00:41
referred to as karabaw
00:43
of course just to recap this was done
00:44
for the money this is a pipeline that
00:46
goes through there with
00:48
natural resources coming out of oil and
00:50
gas type resources coming out of
00:52
of uh azerbaijan who has a lot of wealth
00:55
of that way being pumped out and ending
00:56
up
00:57
in turkey for their for their use in
00:59
wealth now turkey has
01:00
uh very very similar and something we
01:02
pointed out very similar to the problems
01:04
that
01:04
japan had leading into world war ii
01:07
turkey has in this
01:08
this period where they’re intending to
01:10
expand
01:11
in the sort of neo ottoman empire sort
01:14
of
01:15
game plan so uh energy everyone
01:17
recognizes you got to have energy you
01:19
got to have a steady supply you got to
01:21
control your energy
01:22
in order to be able to be aggressive in
01:23
a military sense so
01:25
turkey most assuredly recognizes that
01:27
these guys are not dummies
01:29
and this is all part of that overall
01:30
plan it’s not the only place but it is
01:32
one of the places where
01:33
turkey’s trying to achieve uh energy
01:36
independence so
01:37
uh but they didn’t take all of those
01:39
areas there’s some of those
01:40
regions that remain under armenian
01:43
control and a lot of the things that we
01:45
suggested would happen have happened and
01:47
there’s uh
01:48
armenian soldiers are being uh captured
01:51
killed and decapitated and those sorts
01:53
of things in the heads
01:55
shown this is i think largely done more
01:57
by the uh
01:58
syrian mercenaries that are sent in than
02:01
azerbaijani regular troops although
02:03
it appears that they’re involved as well
02:05
to some degree
02:06
uh so it’s it’s it is an area where it’s
02:09
been
02:09
you know not a pretty thing uh but now
02:12
what’s happened and an interesting
02:13
development out of this
02:14
is russia as part of this settlement is
02:17
sending in essentially what’s supposed
02:18
to be this peacekeeping force
02:20
so what they’re doing is they’re opening
02:22
a second base they have the one large
02:24
base not far from that area
02:25
in armenia proper and now they’re
02:27
reporting that a second russian base is
02:29
going to be opened up
02:31
now according to the agreement this
02:32
peacekeeping force this base that’s
02:34
being opened
02:35
inside outside of armenia proper and
02:38
inside the karabaw region
02:40
was scheduled to have a couple thousand
02:42
soldiers or something like that i don’t
02:44
remember the exact numbers but it wasn’t
02:45
some huge number
02:46
but what they’re doing is they’re
02:48
bringing in and this is standard
02:50
you know practiced by the socialist
02:52
countries of of years gone by
02:54
what they do is they bring in large
02:56
numbers of relief workers and health
02:58
workers and all this sort of stuff
03:00
all of these other sorts of humanitarian
03:03
workers that come
03:04
in all of whom are also military so
03:06
suddenly this base has gone from a
03:08
relatively small number to this huge
03:10
number of people plan to come in
03:12
and i’ll just uh i uh this is a tactic
03:15
used all the time in the past where
03:18
they’d only
03:19
report say a couple thousand regular
03:21
soldiers but they would have all these
03:23
relief workers come in who are all
03:24
military trained
03:26
armed you know have weapons all
03:28
ammunition
03:30
all this stuff in order to to um
03:33
be part of you know the military unit
03:36
overall for fighting now
03:37
my speculation is on that it’s an
03:39
interesting development why would russia
03:41
when they’ve already essentially lost
03:43
want to go to all the trouble and time
03:45
and expense
03:46
to bring in all these russian troops and
03:48
in a
03:50
size that’s much larger than
03:53
uh you know what would be required for
03:55
peacekeeping so
03:56
i think it’s one of those things where
03:58
we’ve seen a development this is part of
03:59
the larger strategic
04:01
plan by russia they see you know they
04:03
are starting to face off against turkey
04:05
i’ve described them as kind of frenemies
04:08
before
04:08
they do have areas of cooperation but in
04:10
the long term overall
04:12
there they are kind of largely hostile
04:14
to each other and each other’s
04:16
intents and goals so i think this is
04:18
something where they’re going to be
04:20
right next to that pipeline
04:21
and we would be in a position with this
04:23
base right there
04:24
to immediately cut off that pipeline to
04:26
turkey in times of problems
04:28
so it looks to me that that’s what
04:29
they’re doing is they’re looking at
04:30
long-term strategic
04:32
threats coming out of turkey and looking
04:34
at this as a way
04:36
as a as a backdoor way to cut off energy
04:38
to turkey immediately and this is
04:39
something that
04:40
turkey clearly recognizes they need so
04:43
that’s the the one explanation that
04:45
seems to fit all the data points that we
04:46
have right now as to why
04:48
russia would go to all this trouble
04:50
after that war is lost
04:51
to move in so many russian troops to
04:53
that area that are most assuredly not
04:55
required to
04:56
to keep peace in the region the
04:58
azerbaijanis and the turks have what
05:00
they want
05:01
so they’ve got no particular reason they
05:03
don’t want to particularly conquer
05:04
armenia i mean they hate the armenians
05:06
but
05:06
you know they don’t really make any
05:08
money out of doing that right now so
05:10
it’s just one of those it’s one of those
05:12
things that there’s there’s really only
05:13
one purpose and that would be
05:15
to to create a large russian presence in
05:17
that area a large russian military
05:19
presence in that area for
05:20
for future conflict so it’s an
05:23
interesting
05:24
development development in karbala and i
05:26
i
05:27
i would say as the tension
05:30
rises between russia and turkey it will
05:33
become a lot more important
05:50
so
05:52
[Music]
06:11
[Music]
06:15
you
Click for entire transcript

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Social media & sharing icons powered by UltimatelySocial