Tensions rise between Turkey’s Erdogan and Russia’s Putin over Crimea

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and Russia's Vladimir Putin

Putin seized Crimea from the Ukrainians and now Turkey would like to seize Crimea from Putin. Why? Follow the money… Brad Johnson provides his expertise in international affairs to this escalating situation.


brad johnson here with americans for
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intelligence reform intelreform.org
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it is 25 february 2021
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a very interesting development now kind
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of saber-rattling in
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ukraine the
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commander in chief of the armed forces
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of ukraine has come out and made some
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uh statements now i think everybody will
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recall
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there there are kind of sides to this
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uh but there were areas of of ukraine
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that were essentially annexed by russia
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they used
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the pretext i in my opinion but there
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were some
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russian ethnically russian people there
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and it was an area that was used to
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retire to so there were a lot of
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russians that kind of came in there
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on the soviet union days and and um
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and so there was a large russian
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population there that had been there as
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well
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but that was essentially using my term
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the pretext for what
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russia did to come in and essentially
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annex these areas now
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um this is something that i always say
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that area that they took
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was a very big industrial area so
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i i you know i do get comments on this
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where people say oh well this is you
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know ethnic russian blah blah blah
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well for a very very long time people
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have been using
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the excuse of there being ethnic blah
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blah blah in this area to take it over
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and
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we can all look at the origins of world
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war ii and see where the germans were
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doing that
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and it’s been done by a lot of people a
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lot of times it’s nothing new
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and this is this was essentially what
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was done by russia to get this area of
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the crimea
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part of ukraine and long a part of
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ukraine and it wasn’t something that was
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just done by political whim you know two
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years earlier or something
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and they annexed it but it was because
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of the industrial might that existed in
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that area
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putin wanted the money i mean that’s
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essentially it
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now i know i understand a lot of people
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will be very critical of that because of
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the political considerations but
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it’s it’s always you know it’s power and
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money and that’s what that represented
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and that’s why he’d wanted it if it was
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some poor area of
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very little strategic value or monetary
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value putin would not
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not have gotten into to take that over
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no matter who lived there that’s just
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the truth
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now what ukraine is saying now and and
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they have been slowly building up and
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doing military exercises
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and that sort of thing and they’ve been
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getting some backing from the united
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states
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and they’ve been getting some backing
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from europe so
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uh they’re now claiming and as i said
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the commander of the ukraine armed
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forces is saying that they’re going to
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go in
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and take these places back from the
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crimea that the russians
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have have annexed now they’re called
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independent republics you can call them
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whatever you want that’s fine but
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there’s russian territory
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versus ukrainian territory and we now
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have a third player in this which
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are the turks and the turks are also
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claiming areas of that because there are
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some ethnic turks left in that region as
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well
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left over from the collapse of the
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ottoman empire
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so the turkish logic is that anything
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that was ever conquered by the
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uh ottoman empire remains theirs because
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they conquered it before which okay
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at any rate uh so it’s it’s it’s it’s a
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two-man race right now
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but with a third player kind of looking
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in on it and turkey would most assuredly
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take advantage of a situation
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if if they could to get their uh
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foot in the door and and hold take and
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hold some territory in that region
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so this is turning complicated i would
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say
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that this is getting close to turning
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into a shooting war
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i think it looks like ukraine is indeed
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going back now the fact that they’ve
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come out publicly and said they’re ready
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to go in that is saber rattling
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that could be a warning it could be
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political or he might mean it
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and it could be for domestic consumption
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to build up a fervor
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for taking back this territory the
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crimea and and getting it back under
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ukrainian control
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my take on it is probably that is the
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one a lot of this is for
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uh domestic uh use domestic
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propaganda if you will although i mean i
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think they mean it and it’s honest from
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their perspective
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but it looks like that’s that’s that’s
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where they’re headed with this
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if that’s the case russia will push back
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immediately
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and it’ll be interesting to see you’re
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going to have
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what looks like the us and europe nato
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essentially
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backing ukraine against russia
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and the turks are going to be uh nipping
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at the russian heels on this as well
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so if it turns to a shooting war which i
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would say in the short term is very
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possible
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certainly in the medium term it looks
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likely
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uh it’s going to be very interesting to
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see how all of this unfolds now
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war is one of those things it just it’s
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very hard to predict once it gets
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started
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you know almost anything can happen we
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certainly have russians who have nukes
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doubt they would use it under these
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circumstances uh
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ukraine does not but of course nato does
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uh the turks also have nukes in you know
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their arsenal i believe
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and um although there was they had been
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pulled out of an air force base there i
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don’t know if that that was the only
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place where
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nukes were held and those were under us
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control so uh
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truth is i don’t know if that if the
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turks have their own that are under
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their own control
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that they could launch if wanted i had
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actually i tend to think not
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but they certainly do have a massive
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army a limited navy
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and limited air force uh so they would
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not be a major player but they could be
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a problem
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and a spoiler in the mix so again as i
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would say bottom the take home out of
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all of this
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is medium term high level of
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possibility that this turns to a
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shooting war
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not good
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[Music]
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so
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[Music]
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you
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Brad retired as a Senior Operations Officer and Chief of Station with the Central Intelligence Agency’s Directorate of Operations after 25 years. Having served domestically and abroad, many assignments included areas of armed conflict. He served overseas in direct support of the War Against Terrorism and he took multiple assignments overseas as Chief of Station. A certified senior expert in counterintelligence, surveillance and surveillance detection, his proven expertise in dangerous operational environments included the highest level of training available in the USG and globally. His tradecraft expertise was honed in dangerous, difficult, and restrictive operational environments. Brad is an enrolled member of The Cherokee Nation, a Federally Recognized Tribe.

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