TV Interviews

08 JANUARY MIDEAST NEWS SUMARY By Barry Webb

08 January missile strike.
AL-JAZEERA TV coverage:
–TV host interviewing an “expert in Arab-Iranian” affairs based in Tehran:
“The IRGC has intel from on the ground that the attack on ‘ain al-asad was successful and caused lots of damage, and killed several Americans. They are going to go public with this information.”
–Another guest interviewed said that if the U.S. responds Iran will ignite the entire region. Iran warns every single country hosting U.S. military, that they will become targets if the U.S. response is against Iranian territory. Israel will also be on that list.
AL-ARABIYYA TV coverage:
–A guest interviewed said that70% of Iraqis are against Iran, and that Iran is in a crisis state, not just in Iraq, but domestically. He also mentioned that of the two bases hit, one was in Irbil (Kurdish territory), and the other was in Anbar province (Sunni Arab territory).
SOCIAL MEDIA COMMENTS
Sarah Damdhawi, host of the al-arabiyya TV show tafaa’alkom said that most of the twitter accounts coming out of Iraq were full of sarcasm over the Iranian attack. Examples:
–“Where’s our government? Where’s our government? You servile dispicables.”
–“The attacks in Irbil and Anbar were more a message to the Kurds and the Sunnis than to the Americans, both of whom boycotted the parliament vote to kick the Americans out.”
–“Kill yourselves.”
–“Can’t hit any Americans, but took down a civilian (Ukrainian) airliner trying to leave Tehran.”
The program host, Sarah D. also reported that the pics of missiles being fired that the Iranians showed over and over, and were sent around the world to everybody’s TV networks were phony. One was from a 2017 launch, another from a launch last Nov. in Gaza, and another was from a Dec. launch.
The Iranians kept looping these same images over and over again to make it look like gobs of missiles were being launched.
ALARABIYA.NET reported that the Ukrainian airliner was built in 2016, and all the evidence indicates that mechanical failure was not the issue. Plus video shows what looks like an explosion in the sky before the plane falls to the ground. Also, the spread of debris on the ground is illustrative of an airplane the exploded in the sky, rather than one that just plummeted out of the sky and crashed on the ground.
ALARABIYA.NET also reported additionally on Iran’s latest missile attack that “sources in the administrations of Donald Trump said that Iran intentionally missed their target.”
–An Iraqi guest on al-Arabiya TV’s PANORAMA show said that Iran will now continue to act via its militias in Iraq.
–Another guest on the same show said that the Gulf states want to be at the table when and if a new nuc agreement with Iran is negotiated.
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LIBYA/TURKEY
Good news and bad news. First the good:
The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Haftar, has continued to make advances in Libya. They have solidified their hold over the former ISIS held city of Sirte, and are moving towards Masratta, a major port city Turkey has been using to funnel weapons to the Tripoli “government” and beyond (more on the “beyond” below).
The LNA has also announced that they are expanding the no-fly zone around the Tripoli airport, so as to curtail aid coming to the Sirraaj government through that avenue.
Now for the bad “beyond” news:
TURKEY/LIBYA/AFRICA
On 08 January, al-arabiya TV reported that right after Erdogan’s surprise visit to Tunis last week, Tunisian authorities seized a huge shipment of Turkish weapons being smuggled across the border from Libya to Tunisia. Further investigation has revealed, according to the Tunisian official being interviewed, that Turkey was also using routes in southern Libya to smuggle weapons across Libya’s border with Algeria. These weapons are then distributed to terrorist groups all over Africa. The Tunisian official stressed that this proves direct support of terrorism in Africa by Turkish Intelligence (MIT).
NOTE: We have previously reported that Turkey has been directly aiding Nigeria’s ISIS franchise of Boko Haram. This report provides more confirmation of that, and expands the scope of Turkey’s terrorism reach.
As has been reported numerous times in numerous places, Christians are being systematically exterminated throughout the continent of Africa, and our great NATO “ally” Turkey is behind it all.
And, now we know why Turkey is so desperate to save the Muslim Brotherhood government in Tripoli. It’s not just for Libyan oil and Libyan membership in Erdogan’s imaginary Neo-Ottoman empire.
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Barry Webb is retired from a 25-year career has an Arabist for the NSA, has two MA degrees in related subject matter, and is currently a Senior Fellow for Americans for Intel Reform (AIR), www.intelreform.org He is also the author of Confessions of an (ex) NSA spy: Why America and its Allies are Losing the War on Terror. His website is www.barrywebbauthor.com

03-05 January Arabic language media reporting By Barry Webb

Image result for Egypt photos president

Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi

 

 

Recent evens in Iraq and Libya have dominated virtually all Arabic TV news programs and internet sites this weekend, as events and reactions continue to unfold.

EGYPTIAN REACTION

Popular Egyptian talk show host ‘Amru Adeeb, on his show al-hakaya (the story) which airs every weekend on MBS-Egypt, opened his coverage of America’s killing of Qaseem Solaimani with the words: “Trump just won re-election!” He repeated the phrase several times, with pauses in between for dramatic effect.

“Nobody’s talking about impeachment now,” he said. “Trump’s got four more years.”

He went on to say that Trump is “strange. Perhaps the strangest president America’s ever had, but he made the strong decision. And the whole world is astonished!”

He added that Qaseem Solaimani has left a “river of blood” all across the Middle East. The protestors in Iraq, the hundreds that have been killed . . . “that’s on Qaseem Solaimani.”

He noted how Iran had attacked oil tankers, and America did nothing. Iran had hit Aramco, and America did nothing. And, the Iranians thought that Trump was a weak president, that he couldn’t do anything until after the elections. But, then, Iran kills one American . . . “just one! and Trump takes out Solaimani and al-Muhandess.”

Regarding America’s follow-up attack on installations of the Iraqi Hizbollah (one of the heshd sha’abi (Iranian operated Iraqi Shi’a militias), ‘Amru Adeeb said that it was because Trump wanted to take out those who had attacked the American embassy.

He added that “America is no longer reacting. America is acting!”

COMMENT:

‘Amru Adeeb is close to the as-Sisi regime, and has connections with the upper echelons of Egyptian General Intelligence (EGI), so his views generally reflect those of the current Egyptian government.

U.S. intelligence is saying that Iran had been planning to stage a coup in Iraq. Why they would want to do that might be a mystery to some, given that the current Iraqi government is virtually subservient to Iran as it is. But, perhaps submission is not enough, what the Iranians would want is a clone of themselves in Iraq, so the coup would be to replace the current submissive government with a full Shi’a Islamic Republic.

This coup, had it occurred, would have been spearheaded by the all of the heshd sha’abi (popular militias) and directed by Solaimani. Therefore, just taking out Solaimani was not enough. The Americans had to also take out elements that were to play a key role in the proposed coup.

OTHER REACTIONS

In Iran’s capital city of Tehran, the regime called out tens of thousands of their supporters to protest the killing of Solaimani, whom many thought was a future president of Iran. However, elsewhere in Iran, there were equally large outpourings of demonstrators expressing their joy over Solaimani’s death.

In Iraq, a similar situation. In the capital, Baghdad, there were demonstrations by the pro-Iranian crowd against the killing of Solaimani, and chants of “America is the great Satan.” But elsewhere there were even larger outpourings of people (including shi’a) dancing in the streets, and celebrating Solaimani’s death. “No more Solaimani” they chanted.

The Saudi-owned www.alarabiya.net is reporting that the Iraqi government has placed additional “restrictions” on the American forces in Iraq after the killing of Solaimani. Many Iraqis have expressed their fear that their country will become the battle ground for a war between Iran and America.

Most of the guests interviewed by the anchors on the sister Saudi-owned TV channel of al-arabiyya TV were pleased with the take down of Solaimani. The regular news casts on al-arabiyya TV have reported that Iranian newspapers are reporting that Iran’s revenge will come via their militias, meaning that militias in countries other than Iran will do the dirty work leaving Iran’s hands theoretically clean.

In Lebanon, folks also feared that their country would suffer from Iran’s anger. In Lebanon, the largest and most powerful “political party” is Iran’s puppet terrorist militia, the heavily armed Hizbollah. So, the fear is that they might trigger a war with Israel, which would hurt all of Lebanon, and/or attack western embassies and other western interests in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, our great, loyal NATO ally, Erdogan, is crying tears over Solaimani’s death, calling him a great martyr.

LIBYA

The UN SEC GEN Gutierez warned Turkey against intervening in Libya. This is noteworthy because it is the UN that made the mistake of granting international recognition to the Turkey-supported Sirraaj government in the first place.

U.S. President Trump has also advised Turkey to not intervene in Libya. Yet, the U.S., like most other countries, still maintains an Embassy in militia-controlled Tripoli.

Libyan General Hafter said they will teach Turkey a severe, and historical lesson if they try to intervene in Libya.

Nonetheless, Erdogan seems poised at this point to follow through with his plan to send Turkish troops to Libya. He is talking about only 250-300 at this point. However, French intelligence has reported that four civilian airliners carrying fighters from Syria has landed near Tripoli, courtesy of Erdogan. An article in today’s www.alarabiya.net talks about 1,000 Syrian “mercenaries” that Turkey has trained and shipped to Libya.
These Syrian “mercenaries” are the al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Muslim Brotherhood types whose goals match that of the Turkish regime.

COMMENTS:

During the above-mentioned al-hakaya program by popular Egyptian talk show host ‘Amru Adeeb, he touched on the Libya situation as well as Iraq. While condemning Erdogan’s moves, he commented that in his view the Trump administration was okay with Turkey moving into Libya because the Russians were supporting the other side. At the time, I tended to agree with that comment based on previous statements by the administration. However, Trump’s more recent comment advising against Turkish intervention has to be seen as a positive development. It is far better that the U.S. remain neutral on the Libya situation than to offer moral, diplomatic, or any other sort of support to the wrong side (which happens to be the side that Turkey supports).

While ‘Amru Adeeb was ranting about Erdogan’s Libya moves, a split screen was showing scenes from the below-mentioned Egyptian military exercises. The Saudi-owned al-arabiya TV did the same thing during their coverage of the Libya situation.
I believe that these military exercises by Egypt were not just to make sure the troops were ready in the event they should be needed, but it was also a message sent to Turkey. Likewise, the TV coverage of these exercises in conjunction with the news coverage on the Libyan situation made it clear that this is a specific warning to Turkey

I doubt that the Libyan National Army by itself could do much against a full scale Turkish invasion. Their air force consists of about two or three ancient MIGS left over from the Soviet era, and a handful of helicopters. The mechanized portion of their army appears to be primarily Japanese pick-up trucks with machine guns, artillery, and anti-aircraft guns converted to artillery mounted in the back. Maybe two or three ancient Soviet tanks. However, were Egypt to enter the Libyan war in earnest, they would hand the Turks their rear-ends and send them packing. Some comments coming out of Egypt now indicate that they just might do that.

While previous comments coming out of the Egyptian regime have stressed that Egypt’s army is just for defending Egypt’s soil, and Egypt’s borders. Period. Comments coming out this weekend include the importance of defending Egypt’s national security, and a stable Libya (i.e. free of terrorists and Turks) as being in the interest of Egypt’s national security. There have also been comments to the effect that Egypt is prepared “to defend its coastlines and the coastlines of its neighbors” (i.e. Libya).

Coincidentally, or not, the Egyptian military on Saturday morning 04 January 2020 staged a huge naval exercise and practice marine landing on one of its Mediterranean beaches west of Alexandria. Participating in this exercise were landing craft for unloading Humvees, tanks, and other heavy equipment, a helicopter “aircraft carrier” and the ‘copters it bore, Apaches and Shinooks, submarines, and anti-submarine aircraft and naval craft, F-16s, and special forces.

In comparing the militaries of Turkey and Egypt, Turkey has the larger and more powerful navy, as Erdogan has been spending billions on his navy in preparation for ruling the entire Mediterranean as in the Ottoman days of old. But Egypt likely has adequate submarine forces (including the latest German models), and anti-submarine air craft to take out any Turkish ships approaching Libya that it wants to.

In terms of air power, Egypt wins hands down. Both countries are equipped with substantial numbers of F-15s and F-16s, and NATO helicopters, but Erdogan purged most of his pilots in the wake of the failed coup attempt of 2016, and they as yet do not have adequate replacements.

While the Turkish army could probably muster close to the same amount of manpower, given the respective populations of the two countries (80 million for Turkey, 100 million for Egypt) as Egypt, they would have the logistical problem of transporting them across the sea, and then problems of supply. Whereas Egypt would have the advantage fighting close to their home soil. The Turkish army also has command and control, and chain of command problems thanks to Erdogan’s numerous purges of the army beginning in 2009, and continuing through 2016.

Then there is the matter of Egypt’s huge, modern tank force, and the flat, easily traversed terrain between Cairo and Tripoli.

Stay tuned. Things just might get exciting.

SUNDAY 05 MAY

The Iraqi parliament met to vote on expelling U.S. forces from Iraq in the wake of the killing of Solaimani and a number of his stooges. Significantly, the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds boycotted the meeting, leaving the Iranian stooges, including the Prime Minister, totally in charge.

After the vote by the Iran-subservient Iraqi parliament, protests broke out in Baghdad against the decision according www.alarabiya.net. Other protesters in the Shi’a holy city of Karbala protested the parliament’s decision by blocking the road to Karbala, and burning tires.

Iraqi Shi’a leader Muqtada Sadr has recommended that Iraq close down the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, and pass a law criminalizing any contacts of any sort with any and all Americans. An article in www.alarabiya.net says that Muqtadi Sadr, whom they call a “proxy” of Iran, has also called for the formation of an “international militia.”

Another alarabiya.net article hints that Iran and its proxies may go after European targets.

The Leader of Iran’s puppet Lebanese Shi’a Hizbollah, Nasrallah, has stated that the killing of Solaimani launched a “brand new era in the Middle East.” The implication of his words were rather ominous.

ANALYSIS:

Judging from the reactions and comments coming out of the Iranian leadership, and from their client terrorist entities around the Middle East, such as Hizbollah and Hamas, Iran will try to unleash a broader reign of terror throughout all of the Arab countries using its proxies to do the dirty work.

Iran’s analysis being that by using their proxies to do their dirty work (including killing American citizens, attacking embassies, consulates, and private businesses) in other countries, that any response by the U.S. will take place in the countries where the attacks take place, causing those countries also to want to sever ties with the U.S. as Iraq is doing.

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is under increasing pressure, not only economically from Trump’s embargoes, but internally from their own population’s disgust with the regime’s behavior and domestic policies.

BOTTOM LINE: As things escalate throughout the Middle East, and assuming that the U.S. responses will increase in severity as well, the Iranian Mullah’s may well reach the conclusion that “if we’re going down anyway, we’re going to set the entire Middle East on fire and let Allah sort it out later.”

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Barry Webb has logged a 25-year career as an Arabist for the NSA, has two MA degrees in related subject matter, and is currently a Senior Fellow with Americans for Intelligence Reform www.intelreform.org. He is the author of Confessions of an (ex) NSA spy: Why America and its Allies are Losing the War on Terror. His website is www.barrywebbauthor.com

IRAQ/LIBYA (06 January) By Barry Webb

IRAQ

The Saudi owned site alarabiya.net is reporting that in the southern (Shi’a) city of
al-Basra, members of the Iraqi Hizbollah, which is one of the heshd sha’bi (popular mobilization) units directed by the late Qaseem Sulaimani and his Iraqi deputy
al-Muhandess, drove pick-ups into a crowd of anti-Iranian demonstrators, in an attempt to break up the protests. Later the protestors burned one of the trucks belonging to the Hizbollah group.

In Nasriyyah, another southern Iraqi Shi’a city, Iraqi Hizbollah units fired live rounds against anti-Iranian protestors when the protestors refused to engage in even “symbolic” mourning for al-Muhandess. The protestors then burned the local Hizbollah HQ.

Alarabiya is also reporting that an IRGC asset, who had worked directly under Solaimani in the failiq al-quds brigade, was killed in Yemen. The report, which came originally from Iranian sources, did not mention where he was killed, or how.

Alarabiya.net is also reporting this morning that the leaders of the Iraqi popular mobilization units have told their people to avoid public appearances and to change their phone numbers, in the wake of the Solaimani killing.

U.S. news sources are reporting that the Somali al-Qaeda franchise, al-shabaab attacked an airfield in Kenya where U.S. troops were training Kenyan troops. One U.S. serviceman and two U.S. contractors were killed, before Kenyan security forces could react and kill five of the attackers while driving the rest of them off.

COMMENT: Since al-Qaeda is closely allied to Iran (as well as Qatar and Turkey), it is tempting to see this attack as Iran’s first counter-punch for the Solaimani killing.

IRAQ/LEBANON

On a lighter note, Sarah Dhamdhawi, who hosts a show on al-arabiyya TV called tafaalkom and in which she talks about what is currently lighting up the Arabic social media accounts, commented on the after affects of the Solaimani killing saying that the vehicle bearing the bodies of Solaimani and al-Muhandess through the streets of Bagdad, after the killing, was the subject of lots of sarcasm on twitter. This is because the vehicle bearing their bodies was a Chevy, an American-made vehicle.

She also reported on the photos of Solaimani that the Lebanese Hizbollah distributed around Beirut in hopes of eliciting sympathy, instead it became also the subjects of sarcasm, though she didn’t say why.

LIBYA

Both al-arabiyya TV and alarabiya.net are reporting this morning Erdogan’s stooge, Fayez Sirraaj (head of the “government” in Tripoli), along with the Turkish Foreign Minister, visited Algiers in hopes of inducing Algeria to also intervene on behalf of the Sirraaj Government. So far, no go on that account.

Also this morning alarabiya.net is reporting that General Haftar’s Libyan National Army now has complete control of the city of Sirte, which was one of the only two major cities still allied to the Tripoli faction. The LNA then announced that they will move on Misratta next (which is the other city allied to Tripoli).

The capture of Sirte was later confirmed by al-arabiyya TV. The Libyan source interviewed by the TV news anchor said that the LNA entered the city from five different directions and it took them only four hours to put down all opposition and establish complete control of the city.

COMMENT:

Sirte and Misratta are both located on Libya’s Mediterranean coast on the far west side of the country, near Tripoli. When the LNA’s battle for Tripoli began last Spring, I thought that they had made a huge strategic mistake by trying to go after Tripoli first before taking out Tripoli’s smaller allies first.

My fears proved well founded as during the summer and fall, whenever the LNA began to make progress in Tripoli, fighters from Misratta would come out and hit them in the flanks forcing a retreat. Also, Turkey alternately used the ports of Sirte and Misratta for landing supplies and terrorists from other countries which would then be slipped into Tripoli to aid the Sirraaj government.

This shift in strategy by the LNA to do what they should have done in the first place, might be traced to the influence of their Russian “advisors” from the Wagner company.
Erdogan’s plans to step-up Turkey’s involvement with regular Turkish troops may have also convinced the LNA of the need to take out Sirte and Misratta.

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Barry Webb has logged a 25-year career as an Arabist for the NSA, has two MA degrees in related subject matter, and is currently a Senior Fellow with Americans for Intelligence Reform www.intelreform.org. He is the author of Confessions of an (ex) NSA spy: Why America and its Allies are Losing the War on Terror. His website is www.barrywebbauthor.com