As the fragile situation in the Mediterranean and Eurasia threatens to ignite into war, Greece is up against an old foe, Turkey. Many complexities exist and several countries are in the throes of this and other conflicts. A panel of experts gathered to share analysis of what could have serious repercussions for the West.
Brad Johnson, one of the participants and a retired senior CIA operative and station chief, joins the others sharing his expertise in the areas. After his 25 years of service, he now devotes his time to his non-profit Americans for Intelligence Reform as President. AIR brings you world and domestic news you will seldom hear on mainstream media. The voice of independent media can only be heard by sharing how to access it and we encourage you to subscribe. Check out our playlist on Turkey for other videos and if you would like further background. Visit intelreform.org as well.
hello
00:36
i would like to welcome our viewers and
00:38
expert panel for today’s important
00:39
discussion
00:41
i would like to thank andreas zapounidis
00:43
for organizing this forum and panel of
00:45
experts
00:46
andreas is the executive director of the
00:48
mediterranean council in forum
00:50
president of the hepa hd calamaria
00:54
the secretary of association of the
00:57
a hellenic chapter a security risk
01:00
management
01:01
and community liaison consultant for the
01:03
energy and defense industry
01:05
and a retired senior nco of the hellenic
01:08
army
01:09
andreas i will hand it over to you for a
01:11
word about our sponsors
01:12
and today’s discussion
01:17
thank you very much thank you very much
01:20
miss miss daniel crimminsthank you very
01:22
much mr
01:23
mr brad johnson thank you very much sir
01:26
what is often
01:28
uh and uh we are waiting for mr c
01:31
because he’s on his way
01:33
um i would like to thank you everybody
01:36
that are here today
01:37
and also our viewers and
01:41
we we all know that the situation is
01:43
very fragile
01:44
in the mediterranean and eurasia
01:46
actually and according
01:48
with this escalation in the caucasus
01:52
uh we have a lot to to talk about uh
01:56
i want to stay along
01:59
and i will pass the the floor
02:02
to miss our moderator for the day
02:05
uh miss daniel crimins miss daniel
02:08
crimmins which is
02:09
she is a criminal justice strategic
02:11
intelligence
02:12
homeland security and mediterranean gas
02:16
on forum analyst on terrorism
02:18
so the the floor is yours miss
02:21
crimmins and
02:22
i would like to thank you again all so
02:24
that you are here and
02:26
i would like to thank all our viewers
02:28
and of course i would like to thank our
02:29
communication
02:30
sponsors uh pro news dot gr defense net
02:35
and of course
02:40
shop which is our
02:45
communications poster and that’s why
02:47
we’re on air
02:48
in facebook pages in our page in a hepa
02:52
ag 41
02:53
and mentoring custom form group and of
02:55
course live
02:56
live in youtube please subscribe
03:00
and follow our forums
03:03
so mr tsivicos is here too
03:07
welcome mr tsivicos hello everybody
03:11
sorry for being late but my assistant
03:15
here
03:15
my consultant would i get on on time
03:19
no problem thank you very much
03:23
the the floor is sure of miss screaming
03:25
thank you very much again all
03:27
thank you andres gentlemen today i would
03:30
like to address
03:31
quite a few topics that are greatly
03:32
affecting the region we have turkey as a
03:35
major threat
03:36
historic peace deals france calling for
03:38
a pax mediterranean
03:40
china’s one belt one road project among
03:43
a new axis of countries forming
03:45
that have some rumoring pre-world war ii
03:48
type relations
03:49
and then breaking news even the fragile
03:53
situation in armenia
03:55
there is a lot to cover today however i
03:57
would like to begin by giving each of
03:59
you a brief moment for opening
04:00
statements
04:01
concerning these historic events taking
04:03
place in the region
04:05
today we’re going to start with bradley
04:07
johnson representing the united states
04:09
mr johnson is the president of americans
04:12
for intelligence reform
04:14
a retired cia senior operations officer
04:17
in chief of station a columnist at epoch
04:20
times
04:21
and a regular expert speaker on national
04:24
cable news
04:25
mr johnson thank you for joining us
04:27
today the floor is yours for opening
04:28
statements
04:32
well thank you very much it’s a great
04:33
pleasure to join you again this is my
04:35
second one of these i feel very
04:36
fortunate to join
04:38
and i am just right outside of
04:41
washington dc
04:42
and hopefully have a finger on the pulse
04:44
of what’s going on and and
04:46
can contribute to the discussion i look
04:47
forward to it thank you for having me
04:49
again
04:50
thank you mr johnson next we have
04:53
savas tsivicos
04:54
representing cyprus and the united
04:56
states he is a supreme treasurer of a
04:58
hepa
04:59
the ceo of cypreca in cypreco industries
05:03
and the former president of the hellenic
05:05
federation of new jersey
05:07
welcome savas thank you for joining us
05:09
today the floor is yours
05:11
thank you danielle uh thank you andreas
05:14
and congratulations
05:15
uh for putting another great event
05:17
together
05:18
uh on behalf of aheba
05:24
the supreme uh la jolla would like to
05:26
thank uh all of you
05:28
especially our uh two speakers and
05:31
danielle for
05:32
coming together today uh to comment on
05:35
the latest uh developments
05:38
and it’s indeed a nice forum
05:41
to exchange ideas and also evaluate
05:45
what’s happening during these very
05:47
critical times
05:48
not only in east mediterranean but also
05:51
around the world
05:52
again a big thank you and then big thank
05:55
you
05:56
for uh supreme president george juriadis
06:00
thank you savage rounding out our panel
06:03
is dr
06:04
cjcg wittershoven representing the
06:06
netherlands
06:07
dr wittershoven is the global head of
06:09
strategy and risk for berry commodities
06:12
director of verisi editor of the journal
06:16
of petroleum resources and economics
06:19
director of mediterranean energy
06:21
political risk consultancy
06:23
and a renowned middle east expert dr
06:25
wittershoven thank you for joining us
06:27
today the floor is yours
06:29
okay thank you it’s now my second time
06:35
um between my first time and the
06:38
second time a
06:41
lot of issues again became
06:45
hopper even
06:49
as we have seen in the weekend
06:53
geo politics it does not
06:56
stop and the azerbaijan
06:59
armenia issue is now again
07:04
heating up so i’m very very
07:07
interested to see and to hear of what
07:11
everybody is thinking thank you
07:16
thank you dr whittaker i’d like to start
07:19
off
07:19
with the issues surrounding turkey mr
07:22
johnson we have erdogan with his wishes
07:24
to bring about a new ottoman empire both
07:27
forming alliances and angry neighbors in
07:29
the region
07:31
he’s causing unrest in multiple
07:32
countries but i would like to start with
07:35
the complex relations
07:37
between turkey and russia can you speak
07:39
to those complex relations
07:43
yes and and it uh it’s it’s one of those
07:46
things where uh
07:48
uh you know there’s so many
07:49
ramifications to it and
07:51
russia and turkey both look at the world
07:54
as
07:54
all of us do in our countries we view
07:56
the whole world from
07:58
our own optics so russia and turkey are
08:01
kind of
08:03
i like the term that people use
08:04
frenemies because they’re both friends
08:06
and enemies and all at the same time
08:08
they do have
08:09
areas of cooperation but they have areas
08:12
of conflict as well and certainly we’ve
08:14
seen
08:15
turkey’s threats to do things like close
08:18
the boss for us that and closing the
08:19
bosphorus is designed for
08:21
one thing only from passing to the black
08:24
sea to the mediterranean
08:26
it would isolate the russian black black
08:28
sea fleet which
08:30
uh of course that has impact in his show
08:32
of power
08:33
off the coast of libya and that’s a
08:35
major place where
08:36
uh turkey is playing out its foreign
08:39
policy
08:40
and of course that treaty made between
08:43
libya
08:44
and turkey that claims the sea between
08:47
the two countries
08:48
of which large portions of greek waters
08:52
fall into that so that’s that’s a key
08:54
element it’s one of their international
08:56
justifications for
08:58
uh being aggressive in the uh in the
09:00
seas they’re around the greek islands
09:02
and
09:02
claiming them for their own and i think
09:04
the bottom line always goes back to
09:06
energy but
09:08
there are also areas of cooperation
09:10
there are areas where they discuss
09:12
but there’s actually and this is very
09:14
important
09:15
uh armenia was already mentioned once
09:18
once that’s an area where
09:20
through surrogates they’re at war and
09:23
uh you’ve got russian back russia
09:25
backing armenia on the one hand
09:27
and you’ve got turkey backing the
09:29
azerbaijanis on the other hand
09:32
and just within the last 24 hours that
09:34
has heated up a great deal
09:36
and i think everyone’s aware of it but
09:38
multiple tanks and helicopters and
09:40
things like that the armenians have
09:41
claimed to shoot down
09:43
and uh they’ve got a
09:46
superior tactical position and so
09:48
they’re in a position to do those sorts
09:50
of things they’ve got the high ground
09:51
and are are uh
09:53
are dug in and have all of this russian
09:55
equipment in training
09:56
and i would be very surprised not to
09:59
hear that they don’t have russian
10:00
advisors there working with them
10:02
and the azerbaijanis then have to attack
10:04
so this is turkey and russia playing out
10:07
through these surrogates uh and that’s a
10:10
that’s a heated up
10:11
war they’re shooting at each other so
10:13
it’s a very complex thing
10:15
the turks and the russians have had what
10:17
three major wars in history lots of
10:19
conflicts
10:20
so i think they’re tipping towards
10:23
conflict
10:24
rather than cooperation and uh i’m
10:27
afraid of how that’s going to play out
10:28
in the long run but certainly the
10:29
conflicts are what’s
10:30
coming to the fore now
10:34
does anyone else want to speak to the
10:35
fragile situation in armenia right now
10:40
well uh the latest developments
10:44
in armenia are no different than the
10:48
developments in the eastern
10:49
mediterranean and you have
10:51
one common actor who is
10:54
instigating and destabilizing uh the
10:57
areas
10:58
uh turkey finds itself in a very very
11:02
unique situation basically isolated
11:06
uh by everybody and uh creating
11:09
uh problems uh even within
11:13
uh the so-called alliances that they
11:16
tried to build uh namely russia
11:19
uh and brad uh pointed out that
11:22
uh the new term of uh
11:26
uh greek and enemy i mean uh friends and
11:28
enemies
11:29
at the same time it’s uh it’s very
11:32
suitable
11:33
um russia
11:36
uh in a sense in my opinion is
11:39
using turkey for economic
11:44
and financial purposes and that’s what
11:46
it stops
11:47
other than the sales of weapons to
11:50
turkey we don’t see any other
11:52
cooperation
11:53
either in syria or in libya
11:56
or now in in armenia
12:00
and the threat of turkey to close the
12:02
straits
12:03
i think is gonna it’s gonna explode in
12:06
their face
12:09
turkey uh is uh provoking the situation
12:12
in the eastern mediterranean
12:14
uh they have come very close uh
12:17
uh to starting a war with uh greece
12:20
but that wouldn’t uh only be limited to
12:24
a war between uh
12:27
greece and uh and turkey but most
12:29
probably egypt
12:30
israel cyprus france would be
12:33
participating
12:35
so it remains to be seen as to how much
12:38
a turkey is willing to push the envelope
12:43
because by stretching the rope
12:46
it’s a matter of time before it breaks
12:48
and
12:50
and we might see some uh some uh drastic
12:54
uh developments and some drastic changes
12:59
uh within turkey don’t forget turkey
13:02
uh is aligned itself with saraj
13:06
in libya who is probably going to be
13:09
stepping down in the next couple of days
13:13
you have a kurdish
13:16
issue around turkey in
13:20
iran uh iraq and syria
13:23
and probably over 20 million uh kurds in
13:26
turkey without
13:27
basic human rights so um
13:30
i think we should be watching very
13:31
carefully because
13:33
i believe this thing is going to come to
13:37
some kind of climax very very soon
13:43
dr wittershoven what is the importance
13:45
of turkey threatening to close the
13:46
bosphorus
13:47
do you think that eragon would actually
13:49
do this and what do you believe putin’s
13:51
response would be
13:54
how long do you have there
13:57
no um it’s it’s it is
14:01
the ultimate stretch that
14:04
ankara could make to
14:10
vladimir however
14:13
i i
14:17
think while looking at rap turkey is
14:21
engaged
14:24
right now so in the east met in
14:27
libya
14:34
i think for um as a
14:37
former military
14:41
analyst i would say he is
14:44
not at this moment willing to
14:47
overstretch his
14:48
military options so um
14:51
to block this
14:55
trades it would be extremely
14:59
pesky um think
15:02
also about the impact that
15:07
um shirks even if they’re anti-aging
15:13
shirks have been laid at least
15:17
educated in a turkish nationalistic way
15:21
so either
15:25
if we hope that there will be an
15:28
internal
15:30
revolt against what argonne at this
15:33
moment is
15:34
doing i think we are over estimating the
15:39
the willingness and the knowledge inside
15:42
of
15:42
turkey about what is going on
15:46
aragon is at this moment using the old
15:52
strategy when things
15:54
inside of your own country are not going
15:58
the way that you
15:59
are hoping it would go
16:02
then you try to get your people
16:05
your turkish nationals to think that
16:10
turkey is surrounded by enemies and that
16:14
they are
16:15
at this moment uh willing to
16:19
remove whatever erdogan
16:22
says well um
16:25
it’s it’s going to be a very tricky
16:29
situation yeah because turkish economy
16:34
is
16:34
extremely down turkish lira is
16:37
going down by the day investments into
16:42
turkey have almost dropped to
16:46
levels of the 1980s
16:49
um turkey has an
16:52
internal problem and it’s now trying to
16:55
propone there is an
16:56
external factor that is causing the
17:00
internal
17:02
problem so that’s why you right now
17:07
see that ankara is willing to threaten
17:11
is willing to act up till a certain
17:15
headline but it’s not yet
17:18
not yet stepping over the headline that
17:21
would mean
17:22
it’s going to be an all all-out
17:26
war the issue is
17:29
russia um keep
17:32
in mind that the turks who were the
17:35
largest were a huge
17:39
russian energy importer
17:43
have been dropping their energy impulse
17:45
from
17:46
russia this is not liked by
17:50
russia so russia is now
17:53
also some analysts say
17:57
is trying to let
18:00
turkey feel russia is not happy
18:03
do not think that russia is going to let
18:07
turkey do whatever they want to do but
18:11
i think vladimir still smiling behind
18:15
closed doors
18:16
if turkey is angry at europe or turkey
18:19
is angry with
18:21
washington because that likes that is
18:24
like it undermines the european
18:28
union yeah because you get now
18:31
from italy against germany
18:35
and the rest you get in nato you get
18:39
nato turkey against nato greece
18:43
um vladimir is happy
18:46
and what is happening in armenia you
18:49
even could say
18:50
maybe russia is trying out how good the
18:54
turkish drones are are they
18:57
rather than russian uh
19:00
and anti-air
19:03
systems or are the turks bluffing
19:06
and the russian systems are better it’s
19:10
fighting by proxy i
19:15
do agree i don’t think at this moment
19:19
you will see
19:19
a turkish army
19:23
gonna fight the russian army we know
19:25
that
19:26
is to both of them
19:29
not to their advantage instability
19:33
and the caucuses has also an advantage
19:36
for
19:38
oil and gas prices will go up
19:41
yeah okay
19:44
mr johnson would you like to add to that
19:46
question do you think eragon would
19:48
actually close the boss first and what
19:49
would putin’s response be
19:53
well i think erdogan is a along the way
19:56
learned lessons i mean i
19:57
he started out as essentially a soccer
20:00
star that’s where he
20:01
got claimed to fame and was elected to a
20:03
radical party in
20:04
turkey early on and learned a lot of
20:06
valuable lessons there because he was
20:08
forced out of politics so his upbringing
20:12
has taught him a great deal of
20:13
pragmatism so
20:14
the answer to the question is he’ll do
20:16
it if he can get away with it
20:19
but i don’t see circumstances under
20:21
which he could get away with it uh the
20:22
very first thing that would happen if
20:24
he tried to close the boss for us is
20:27
that russia
20:27
would sail through it and if fired upon
20:30
they would respond
20:31
and uh certainly i agree with everyone
20:33
that that
20:34
turkey is not prepared to take on russia
20:37
in a full-scale war between those two
20:39
countries
20:39
they have a they have a massive standing
20:42
army but
20:44
their air force and navy which would be
20:46
very important part of a war of that
20:48
nature uh just aren’t up to the task
20:50
period i mean they they couldn’t compete
20:52
so uh i i don’t see him
20:55
actually trying to do that he’s
20:58
erdogan is going to be very pragmatic
21:00
about all of this
21:02
i think he’s very dedicated to the idea
21:05
of expanding into a neo-ottoman empire i
21:09
believe that he
21:10
actually in his very center of his being
21:13
believes that that is his
21:15
god-given right and that he uh
21:18
is is only trying to act out the will of
21:21
allah from his perspective
21:23
and uh so he’s he’s going to do
21:24
everything he can do to make that happen
21:26
now
21:27
uh there’s that’s not an easy path to
21:30
take i think a lot of people
21:32
recognize that he has that ambition
21:35
especially the closer you are to turkey
21:37
the more you recognize
21:38
that that’s what he’s up to and uh his
21:41
power
21:42
inside turkey while he’s having a lot of
21:44
economic problems and he’s having some
21:46
political problems
21:47
his power is still absolute he took
21:50
advantage of the
21:51
so-called attempted revolution in 2017
21:55
that
21:57
that he blamed on some outside forces
22:00
uh to consolidate power and he
22:03
let’s not forget he fired like 200 000
22:06
people in turkey
22:07
many of whom are still political
22:09
prisoners sitting in jail
22:10
and he put in all of his own people and
22:12
that’s at every level
22:14
judges police military everybody so the
22:17
entire government
22:18
apparatus is under erdogan’s direct
22:21
control
22:22
and that’s insurmountable
22:26
for any sort of domestic opposition to
22:29
try and rise up against all of that it’s
22:31
just not
22:32
not practical any sort of situation of
22:35
that nature
22:36
that would be a threat to erdogan is
22:37
going to have to come from the outside
22:39
and i don’t see something like that
22:40
happening anytime soon so
22:43
erdogan is always going to do what’s
22:45
practical that’s how he was brought up
22:46
that’s how he’s going to respond to
22:48
these situations he knows he can do
22:50
much of what he wants in libya and is
22:52
doing it there are elements that
22:54
limit him uh in armenia there’s fewer
22:56
elements that limit him so he’s doing
22:57
what he wants there
22:58
uh syria he’s getting away with whatever
23:02
pretty much he wants and that’s in
23:03
certain
23:04
areas along the turkish border uh where
23:06
he essentially uh
23:08
uh conquered a swath of land that’s up
23:10
against the syrian border and has
23:12
put in his own people so all of these
23:14
things that you’ll note have a common
23:16
theme and that’s the
23:17
pragmatism that’s behind them his goal
23:20
remains the same
23:21
but he’s only going to go as far as he
23:22
thinks he can actually practically get
23:24
away with
23:27
savas senator ron johnson has been
23:29
involved in talks
23:30
concerning moving the u.s air force base
23:33
in philic
23:34
from turkey to greece you see this
23:36
happening and why is that significant
23:41
well um i i believe we’re coming
23:44
closer and closer to that uh to that
23:48
event in my humble opinion
23:51
some of us have been advocating
23:55
that the united states shouldn’t be held
23:57
hostage
23:58
having the military base there
24:02
and also the nuclear weapons and we have
24:05
seen the behavior of turkey on previous
24:07
events uh where the base
24:10
basically was off limits to the united
24:14
states
24:14
uh we have seen it at the latest uh two
24:17
years ago three years ago
24:19
when the so-called attempted coup took
24:22
place
24:24
uh the base was shut down by turkey with
24:26
uh
24:27
basically no access to the usa that owns
24:31
the base and they have started
24:35
uh now for a couple of years
24:39
moving some of the operations out of the
24:42
of the base and i think the ultimate
24:45
move
24:46
will be to relocate the entire uh
24:48
operation
24:49
because uh erdogan um even though
24:52
uh uh mr johnson uh described it as
24:56
pragmatist approach um
25:01
being that it’s a greek world i don’t
25:04
see
25:04
any pragmatism uh to his approach
25:08
uh so he
25:12
keeps isolating himself and
25:14
unfortunately he’s creating
25:16
a situation where turkey
25:19
is going to have to take some action uh
25:22
they are good in pushing the envelope as
25:24
i said earlier and we have seen it with
25:26
the refugees
25:27
at the border of greece
25:30
we have seen it lately in the aegean
25:35
where two military
25:38
brigades collided we have seen it in
25:42
egypt we have seen it in libya we have
25:45
seen it in syria
25:47
they keep pushing and they are keep
25:49
threatening
25:50
and having so many problems domestically
25:53
he’s gonna need
25:55
something outside uh turkey to divert
25:58
the attention
26:00
i don’t know uh if it’s gonna be to his
26:02
benefit
26:03
but coming back to uh uh to the
26:06
relocation
26:07
of the base uh we have the visit
26:11
of the foreign minister or the secretary
26:14
of state of the united states
26:16
uh i believe tomorrow i lost track of
26:20
the dates uh
26:24
i think it’s fair now uh if i’m not
26:26
mistaken
26:27
uh and tech is not uh too happy about it
26:30
uh we have seen statements
26:32
coming out of turkey and erdogan uh that
26:35
the united states uh is not being
26:37
neutral
26:39
and that’s uh that’s uh no good
26:43
but i think the united states has made
26:45
it very clear
26:46
and is giving a strong message uh
26:49
visiting
26:50
cyprus a couple of weeks ago uh
26:53
uh lifting embargo against cyprus and
26:56
now
26:57
not only having high-level talks in
26:59
greece but uh making a point
27:01
uh to visit suda bay in crete
27:04
where uh rumors have it
27:07
that it will be the new location or at
27:10
least
27:11
a location for uh some or most of the
27:14
operations coming out of
27:16
the base in turkey right now so i i
27:19
think the united states policy in the
27:21
eastern mediterranean has refocused
27:24
uh it started two three years ago
27:28
with the election of donald trump and
27:31
under the leadership
27:32
secretary of state wes mitchell uh
27:36
has come a long way and has established
27:39
the pillars of and the partners
27:42
of this new policy being israel
27:46
cyprus uh greece
27:49
and as the fourth member uh being egypt
27:53
so uh i i think
27:56
we’re gonna see some events unfolding
27:59
very very quickly
28:00
in the very near future that is my
28:04
that is my perception at least and
28:08
the more turkey acts
28:11
in such a responsible way uh the more
28:15
ammunition uh
28:16
it gives to washington uh to refocus
28:19
and re-evaluate uh the american foreign
28:22
policy
28:23
uh vis-a-vis turkey does anybody else
28:27
want to speak to the move
28:28
of incirlik um um
28:31
yes i would have a comment
28:34
okay go ahead brad uh
28:38
i think it’s the the the moving of the
28:40
of the
28:41
air force base in turkey uh is
28:43
extraordinarily interesting
28:44
i think that this is something that’s
28:46
been played out by the trump
28:48
administration
28:48
ron senator ron johnson who publicly
28:51
came out and said that it was under
28:53
consideration
28:54
to move the u.s air force base out of
28:57
turkey into greece
28:58
was very significant i think trump
29:01
trying to play
29:02
this as well as he could politically is
29:05
using
29:06
uh senator johnson’s office to make the
29:09
threat while he kind of stands back
29:11
trying to hold open
29:12
a way to negotiate with president
29:14
turkish president erdogan
29:16
uh i think that has very little chance
29:18
by the way i i don’t think president
29:20
erdogan is going to
29:22
negotiate in a in a manner that would
29:24
that’s going to really change
29:26
his course uh but the very interesting
29:28
thing about a day
29:30
after that what leaked out of the press
29:32
coming out of this
29:33
to the press coming out of the senate
29:35
was that not only was the united states
29:37
considering moving the base out of
29:39
turkey and into greece
29:41
but they were considering moving it to
29:43
cyprus
29:44
now if that indeed were true now i think
29:47
it was
29:47
leaked on purpose as a particularly
29:51
pointed
29:52
maybe not threat but but kind of a
29:54
threat to turkey
29:55
i mean putting that u.s military base
29:58
that air force it’s a combined base but
30:00
the air force base
30:01
uh on cyprus would be absolutely just
30:04
you know stabbing president erdogan in
30:06
the eye with a stick
30:08
so uh i think that’s a particular
30:10
poignant threat to all of this
30:12
and i think erdogan was he hasn’t
30:15
responded publicly
30:16
uh you know he’s saying general this is
30:19
negative sort of stuff but he hasn’t
30:21
upped the ante yet which is typical of
30:24
his behavior
30:25
so i think that surprised him a great
30:27
deal and he was very taken aback by the
30:29
possibility
30:30
that that that that base could end up on
30:33
cyprus so
30:35
it’ll be interesting to see how he how
30:36
he fights back and pushes back against
30:39
that
30:39
particular aspect but like i said so far
30:42
i think president trump
30:44
wants to negotiate with erdogan wants to
30:46
back away
30:47
from this ramping up of the problems in
30:50
the area as i said
30:51
i don’t see that really having a lot of
30:54
chance the germans
30:55
have been in trying to negotiate with
30:57
these problems with the greek waters now
30:59
for a while
30:59
and they’re having no success because as
31:01
i mentioned earlier on i think
31:03
truthfully
31:04
in his heart president erdogan believes
31:07
it’s his right
31:08
and his destiny to take these lands
31:11
around turkey
31:12
back that were once under ottoman empire
31:14
control and so that’s the path he’s on i
31:16
don’t
31:17
other than by force i just don’t see how
31:20
you can
31:21
change his plan unless somehow he is
31:24
taken removed from office which could
31:25
only be
31:26
first i don’t think he would leave
31:28
willingly under any circumstances
31:30
and uh if i cannot uh uh to what mr
31:34
johnson said
31:35
uh erdogan uh has repeatedly uh
31:39
said and many of his proxies have done
31:41
so as well
31:42
that he wants to renegotiate the treaty
31:45
of lausanne
31:46
which established the current borders
31:50
and everything else
31:51
so it goes beyond that i mean it is very
31:55
clear
31:56
and very alarming at the same time that
31:59
his
32:00
neo-ottomanism
32:04
has everybody up in arms not only
32:07
greece and cyprus and israel but also
32:10
most of the arab world
32:12
mind you and the latest uh the latest
32:15
agreements
32:16
uh between bahrain uh
32:19
the united arab emirates uh the deal
32:22
between kosovo and serbia
32:24
don’t believe in a moment that these
32:28
uh agreements are not related uh to
32:31
uh what turkey is doing and what turkey
32:35
is uh is uh uh tried to establish
32:39
so i believe these are very calculated
32:42
uh
32:44
moves i give the administration a lot of
32:47
credit
32:47
uh for having been able to broker
32:51
such a significant agreement uh between
32:54
uh
32:56
these countries it is a very
32:58
unconventional way
33:00
to solve the middle east problem but i
33:02
think
33:03
you need to think outside the box in
33:06
order to
33:07
solve a long-standing problem such as
33:09
this one
33:10
and i think the trump administration is
33:12
doing it in such a way that
33:15
you can’t even believe it uh but very
33:17
soon we’re going to see
33:19
other countries joining and signing
33:21
agreements with
33:22
israel and of course the the the prime
33:25
minister of all is going to be the
33:26
agreement between uh
33:28
saudi arabia and israel by doing so
33:31
uh basically you you are neutralizing
33:35
the arab world and
33:38
at some point they’re gonna be forced uh
33:41
to
33:41
uh uh take a moment to smell the roses
33:45
and realize the new developments and i
33:47
think these are so significant that uh
33:50
and due to uh the politicized uh
33:54
climate we have in the united states not
33:56
much uh attention
33:57
has been focused on it for obvious
33:59
reasons uh
34:01
but uh nevertheless uh it remains one of
34:03
the most significant
34:05
developments in the last 25 years when
34:07
it comes
34:08
to the middle east dr witterscheven did
34:11
you want to add to this discussion
34:13
yes yes
34:18
i do
34:20
a agree that that um the
34:23
arab sr ali issue
34:27
is changing um i also
34:31
do agree that
34:34
washington has been um setting up a
34:41
positive ground on which the
34:44
israelis and the arabs were able to to
34:47
talk but i would not
34:49
over estimate the impact of let’s say
34:53
the
34:54
trump administration on the deals
34:57
between
34:58
bahrain the united arab emirates and
35:01
israel
35:02
um they have been and they were already
35:06
since years
35:08
shocking um
35:12
netanyahu mohammed bin zayed and even
35:16
mohammed bin salman the conference of
35:20
saudi
35:22
have had their official and
35:25
unofficial lines that they were
35:28
talking to there were ongoing rumors of
35:32
saudi planes
35:33
landing in israel israelis
35:36
flying to saudi and the uae
35:40
um this has been going on and
35:43
if i would like to give some credit i
35:47
think the
35:48
credits um even that i do not
35:52
always agree with benjamin netanyahu but
35:56
netanyahu and mohammed bin zayed the
35:59
conference of abu have been able
36:04
to deal with issues without
36:07
going straight away into the issue of
36:12
palestine and gaza
36:16
the turkish encouragement as
36:19
i see it on the middle east
36:22
has been a major issue the turkish
36:27
deal with qatar uh
36:30
a turkish military base next to the
36:33
largest military base of the usa
36:37
um has been an issue the turkish
36:42
um medium
36:45
or perceived friendship with iran
36:49
has been a reason that people in
36:52
the emirates and israel and bakken
36:56
and even in saudi have been looking
36:59
at these issues and saying okay
37:03
maybe we need to deal now before
37:06
since really
37:12
has been playing an issue also but
37:16
keep in mind for the arabs
37:19
for the arab countries s
37:23
has a lot of advantages and then i’m
37:26
talking about high tech and high tech
37:29
can be for
37:30
commercial issues but also for defense
37:34
and purity and um
37:38
yes 80s are and that’s where people
37:42
sometimes do not even look at are very
37:44
good
37:45
in food production agriculture
37:48
and water and these are real
37:51
issues so there was a
37:55
win-win-win-win-win situation that
38:00
has been supported by the position taken
38:04
by
38:05
washington i
38:08
still feel at heart to believe that
38:11
jared
38:12
kushner was able to broker a deal
38:15
between the
38:17
emirati and the israelis if both sides
38:20
did not even
38:21
thought about it um
38:24
saudi saudi will be one of the last that
38:28
will be
38:28
officially officially
38:32
signing a deal keep in mind
38:35
where people do not because
38:39
most most media have a very short
38:43
memory already in 2017
38:48
uh during the future investment
38:52
initiative in riyadh non-prince mohammed
38:55
bin salman was
38:56
stating then that he sees a
39:00
position of israel in the arab world
39:03
which was
39:04
a shock but was not as like that
39:08
things are going on and the position
39:10
that
39:11
ankara is having right now is only
39:14
supporting any potential
39:18
economic financial defense and
39:22
peace agreements between former
39:24
so-called
39:26
adversaries keep also
39:28
in mind there were a lot of israelis
39:31
already
39:32
in the arab world but they did not show
39:35
their
39:35
israeli passport but were
39:39
working including insecurity of certain
39:43
high-profile people in the arab world
39:48
the deal was brokered before it only was
39:52
able to
39:55
come out because they got the
39:59
additional support of donald
40:02
trump and also keep in mind
40:06
in 2016
40:09
world was not voting for donald trump
40:13
the majority of financing out of the
40:16
emirates
40:17
bahrain qatar and saudi
40:20
and egypt was for hillary for hillary
40:25
clinton because she was assessed as
40:27
being even
40:29
more hard than trump
40:32
against certain adversaries that they
40:35
were seeing
40:37
yeah things are more
40:41
diffused than sometimes in u.s
40:44
media is being shown
40:50
okay
41:00
we are talking it’s going to greece or
41:03
to cyprus
41:04
the ue i think has even openly
41:09
put it into the media that they would be
41:11
more than happy
41:13
to be the base of the u.s air force etc
41:17
if they would live
41:18
in challenge
41:23
congratulations so as i understand
41:26
well cereal
41:30
yes of course thank you very much yes i
41:32
understand well cyril said before that
41:34
the european the europe would be happy
41:36
if the
41:37
base will transfer in europe or soil
41:40
cereal
41:44
who’s that question too can you hear me
41:48
yeah yeah um i think that
41:54
looking at the position that the
41:56
european
41:57
countries are taking at this moment with
42:00
regards to
42:01
turkey um a growing amount of people
42:05
would not be
42:06
extremely unhappy if it would leave
42:10
in sterling because security-wise
42:13
you need to be able to be sure that you
42:17
can use it
42:18
if things are needed so
42:21
if it will go to greece
42:25
um or to cyprus okay
42:28
that’s that’s still very tricky of
42:31
course
42:32
but why not why not
42:35
we always talk about cyprus but
42:39
cyprus has all had a
42:43
huge foreign military base
42:47
next to uh lanaka
42:57
armor um are there so uh if
43:00
a smooth transition if they were to
43:02
decide to move
43:04
the operations in cyprus uh they are
43:07
using the sovereign
43:08
english spaces as we speak anyway so
43:11
that
43:11
that would be a very quick and a very
43:13
smooth uh
43:14
exactly and the the
43:18
french are also talking about
43:21
the best snapping up i think the best
43:23
choice is uh
43:27
the french also wants to wants to go
43:30
there
43:31
i think that the cyprus government
43:34
promised to provide a naval
43:37
not a base but let’s say place actually
43:39
not a base
43:40
yeah maybe every place for
43:43
a small place on the big port for the
43:48
ship warships of the french warships
43:51
i think that if this will happen the
43:53
best solution is to
43:55
go uh this this base to transfer to
43:58
larissa
44:00
because larissa is already has their
44:03
ability to
44:06
fight this kind of nuclear uh
44:10
uh nuclear equipments first of all
44:14
the second about the caucasus uh
44:17
comment about the capitals is that uh
44:19
the all people in armenia
44:22
now uh according with my latest
44:24
information
44:25
from armenia uh the whole people is in
44:28
high alert and also uh
44:32
some people armenians who live in greece
44:36
they already prepare to move there and
44:39
to go there for
44:40
for to fight for their country the
44:43
situation is very serious i know that in
44:45
the united states also there is a
44:47
there are a lot of armenian immigrants
44:50
and
44:52
of course we support the the rights
44:55
for the freedom and it’s an excuse
44:59
i can i cannot excuse the assad
45:02
from the side of azerbaijan however i
45:05
would like to
45:06
to add that russia
45:09
has always tried relations
45:13
with turkey and
45:16
we faced that we saw that uh
45:19
decades ago uh with uh
45:22
i i think that it was uh uh
45:25
again the base the the interleague base
45:29
i think or another base in turkey
45:31
was issue um
45:35
what was a huge issue during the
45:39
kennedy presidency and i think
45:42
i think that it was simultaneously with
45:44
a
45:50
crisis it was also um simultaneously
45:54
a crisis with a nuclear
45:57
us base in turkey so this is a
46:01
long story the turkey and
46:05
russia relations it’s a long story
46:10
and i believe that you russia used
46:13
turkey to
46:16
destabilize nato to destabilize uh
46:19
the mediterranean and of course the
46:22
european union
46:23
and middle east that’s all
46:27
mr johnson well turkey is threatening
46:30
places like greece and cyprus and with
46:32
the situation in armenia
46:34
there are already turkeys already
46:36
showing their future aspirations in
46:38
other countries
46:39
can you speak to what the turkish
46:41
military and pro-turkish partners
46:43
are doing in places like yemen libya and
46:46
syria
46:49
yes i mean i think it’s largely based
46:51
and this is something we’ve touched on a
46:53
little bit
46:54
but uh with the ambitions of
46:57
reestablishing a neo-ottoman empire it
47:00
has to be fueled and i mean very
47:02
literally in this particular case
47:04
they have to have the energy resources
47:06
to do it so if you
47:07
look at where they’re expanding there’s
47:10
always some kind of connection you can
47:12
say
47:12
uh all roads lead back to the energy
47:15
issues so i think what you’re seeing
47:17
as they’re trying to push out the
47:19
envelope as to where they have control
47:22
they’re pushing first in areas where uh
47:24
there are
47:25
there are energy resources because they
47:27
want to capitalize on that and take them
47:29
to themselves to then
47:31
expand further their efforts so uh
47:34
certainly libya is that syria uh perhaps
47:37
to a lesser degree
47:39
but uh uh azerbaijan has oil and uh
47:42
so they’re they’re invested there and
47:45
are closely allied of course the
47:46
azerbaijanis are essentially a turkish
47:48
people
47:49
by bloodline and everything anyway so it
47:52
is a natural relationship
47:54
uh libby of course is not uh there’s
47:56
that that sort of natural relationship
47:58
isn’t as strong with them but
48:00
i think that’s the common theme and
48:02
where you where you can look at what
48:03
they’re doing
48:05
their interest in greece is uh related
48:08
to being able to draw
48:10
a drill for oil and gas in the seas
48:13
around the greek islands and
48:15
i think that’s just what you see over
48:17
and over and that’s the goal and the
48:18
reason they have that
48:19
goal of such a strong motive is
48:22
is because they know they can’t continue
48:24
to expand without that
48:26
turkey itself does not have those
48:28
natural resources so they need it i
48:30
think
48:30
many people have been drawing parallels
48:32
between uh some of the aspects of world
48:34
war one and world war ii to the current
48:36
situation
48:37
and uh that’s one of the things i find
48:39
very similar to japan
48:40
japan was greatly motivated to go to war
48:43
to obtain the resources that it needed
48:46
as an island nation to continue its
48:48
expansion
48:49
and uh i think that that uh turkey today
48:52
finds itself in a
48:54
uh very similar situation in that sense
48:56
that
48:57
they need those resources so where i
48:59
would say what you
49:00
what you’re seeing is that policy play
49:03
itself
49:03
out on on the world stage
49:09
all the major shifts in the region are
49:10
bringing awareness to the possibility
49:12
that nato is facing significant changes
49:15
or even possibly dissolving in the
49:17
future what changes do you see coming to
49:20
nato
49:21
and will we see alliances like the new
49:23
peace agreements
49:24
and president macron’s suggestion of a
49:26
pax mediterranean
49:28
replacing nato
49:31
well i’m one of those who believe that
49:34
the establishment
49:35
the establishment of nato uh following
49:37
world war
49:38
ii uh is much different than
49:41
today’s uh today’s world we have seen
49:45
that many of the countries that belong
49:48
to nato
49:48
don’t necessarily meet up the criteria
49:54
and the latest developments really show
49:58
that nato is not as cohesive
50:01
as one would think you have a member of
50:05
nato
50:05
properly threatening its neighbors
50:08
another nato
50:10
member which that by itself
50:13
uh it’s a reason to believe that the
50:16
catholics of two nato allies would break
50:19
up the alliance
50:20
uh in a second um
50:25
now i think it would be more significant
50:28
uh to have the pax mediterranean as
50:32
the french president uh called it
50:36
which is more specific to the area
50:40
and such
50:43
an alliance will establish and also
50:46
safeguard
50:47
the peace and stability in the area and
50:50
also
50:51
a new class forum made up of four
50:55
countries including
50:59
israel egypt cyprus greece
51:05
the palestinian authority italy and
51:07
france
51:08
sends a very very strong message
51:11
i believe nato for all purposes
51:15
is outdated it needs to be reformed
51:19
and it needs to make them just
51:23
to coincide with today’s
51:26
realities turkey is
51:30
constantly presenting a huge problem for
51:33
the allowance
51:34
for the alliance and i believe
51:37
the new developments and the new
51:39
agreements in the area
51:41
definitely will have a significant
51:46
effect on the alliance and if uh
51:50
if uh
51:54
if the new alliance is established under
51:57
the leadership of france
51:58
minou a very strong uh nato
52:02
ally uh will in essence
52:05
uh fraction uh
52:09
nato but uh in my in my work
52:13
because it’s still in principle within
52:16
that framework but france is taking
52:19
a very very aggressive role in the area
52:23
for their own interest mind you
52:26
nevertheless they have come out very
52:30
strongly
52:31
for greece and cyprus they have signed
52:34
significant military agreements
52:38
and they have openly stated that they
52:41
will come to the rescue of britain
52:43
cyprus
52:44
in the event that turkey attacks
52:47
so these are no small
52:50
announcements and these are no small
52:52
developments
52:54
i think we are experiencing a new
52:57
uh i would call it a new order
53:01
uh in that part of the world that uh
53:04
threatens
53:05
to destabilize the entire
53:08
uh area and uh
53:12
if it wasn’t for uh uh germany’s
53:16
suspicious role uh
53:19
in essence protecting their own
53:21
interests and supporting uh turkey day
53:23
in day out
53:25
uh the developments will have taken
53:27
place already
53:30
does anyone else want to speak to the
53:31
changes coming to nato
53:33
and the new alliance is being formed
53:39
um yes um i
53:44
i’m an um
53:49
as you will say i’m an athleticist
53:53
because that’s how i grew up and was
53:58
educated um so i’m
54:02
un happy to see that
54:05
one of the most stabilizing
54:09
organizations in the world even
54:12
more now that much more
54:15
than the un um
54:19
is under pressure because of one
54:22
single leader
54:25
and it’s it’s its views on the world
54:29
um turkey’s
54:32
position should not mean that we
54:36
are ending let’s say
54:39
nato as we know maybe we should
54:44
reorganize or reassess the position that
54:47
turkey has and the changing
54:51
global organical
54:54
scene because turkey’s polarization
54:58
and nato was strong because
55:01
it was the largest semi-european
55:06
based military force that was bordering
55:09
the soviet
55:12
union well this situation when you look
55:15
at the map
55:16
is not anymore the
55:19
reality turkey is yes
55:22
it’s still next to russia but it’s not
55:26
anymore
55:26
extremely the main
55:30
stumble block for us soviet
55:34
army going into anyway
55:38
where i’m happy
55:42
and that’s where i have been
55:46
writing on now for three years east
55:50
match should not be looked upon as
55:54
nato is match it’s its own region and a
55:58
box is met or a box
56:07
should be the second
56:10
phase of at all that it was mentioned
56:14
the
56:14
eastman med gas forum which was
56:17
officially
56:19
announced as an international
56:21
organization
56:23
last week um a
56:26
security organization dealing with
56:29
issues in the mediterranean
56:32
is a major issue this is not
56:35
not and i need to emphasize that this
56:39
should not always include american
56:42
support of american interference because
56:45
that
56:45
is not helping we have seen it whenever
56:50
the east mad gas reform was trying to
56:54
step further in what they were
56:56
discussing
56:58
we got in my european
57:02
review an interference from washington
57:05
because
57:06
suddenly the us was proposing supporting
57:10
or
57:10
forcing through
57:14
gas deals to greece to cyprus or to
57:17
whatever
57:18
which was not helping the regional
57:22
coordinational regional integration
57:26
and regional setup of a system
57:29
that can stabilize the region
57:32
what france now is doing i’m
57:37
98 behind because i still
57:41
need to see that macro will put
57:44
his deeds where his
57:48
words are will france honestly
57:51
and actively interfere if there is a
57:54
real clash between
57:56
turkey and greece or turkey and
57:59
egypt um we have seen
58:03
france and italy
58:06
do not forget italy
58:10
try to become a major geopolitical and
58:13
military player
58:14
in the region up to now the success
58:18
of both strategies has been extremely
58:21
high
58:23
and i’m not going to say that they are
58:25
not
58:26
willing but it’s not that easy you are
58:29
looking from a western european
58:33
point of view into an eastern european
58:37
and arab
58:40
situation in which
58:43
not always military issues military
58:46
strategy
58:47
military security and economic interest
58:50
are playing for the same goal
58:54
so where the fox
58:58
made the rhenia
59:01
according to me should be set up from is
59:06
not from france
59:07
it could be set up by greece israel
59:10
cyprus and egypt without
59:14
them integrating whatever they need to
59:17
integrate and that’s including economic
59:21
and financial systems
59:24
it becomes still a weak um
59:29
addendum to a nato or what
59:33
some people even say and i do not give
59:36
us that
59:36
a new kind of new colonialistic
59:40
view proponed by france and
59:44
italy east met which
59:48
includes libya needs to be dealt with
59:52
the main players that
59:53
are in that geography france and italy
59:58
are only able to assist
60:02
for the whole area
60:05
support from washington is helpful
60:08
but please do not interfere please do
60:11
not
60:12
think that whatever always is coming
60:15
from washington for
60:17
a certain region is most beneficial for
60:20
that
60:21
region also where
60:24
i would like to emphasize if the whole
60:28
issue is at this moment
60:31
related to oil and gas and i i can
60:34
give you hundreds of examples of
60:37
wars that officially were started
60:40
according
60:43
to the media because it was linked to
60:46
oil and gas at this moment no crisis in
60:50
the whole region
60:52
needs to be started because somebody
60:54
needs oil and
60:56
gas there’s more oil and gas on the
60:58
market
60:59
than there are clients if turkey wants
61:03
to have oil and gas it can go
61:05
on the market and it can get whatever it
61:09
uh
61:10
wants to have for the next 25 years
61:12
against
61:13
prices you would be dreaming of
61:17
last year the same for greece and egypt
61:20
etc
61:21
where maybe people are right
61:24
energy oil and gas is maybe the
61:28
destabilizing factor because at this
61:31
moment whatever
61:32
greece cyprus egypt israel are planning
61:37
are commercially not feasible
61:41
we are looking at projects that are at
61:44
this moment
61:45
and in 2021 up to 2025
61:49
not feasible at all no
61:52
commercial investor will invest in a
61:55
project
61:56
to connect cyprus to greece to europe
62:00
why q expensive
62:04
etc that opportunity
62:07
the region has
62:11
missed if we are trying to
62:14
use energy as a factor in the east met
62:17
is integrating the original
62:21
economies but that’s for after 25
62:24
so after 2025
62:28
what turkey now is doing
62:31
has no relationship to oil and gas
62:35
they can get more oil and gas than they
62:38
can ever
62:39
use it’s it’s just an
62:42
issue they are using it’s linked to
62:47
what has come out in 2014 2016
62:52
blue homeland i do agree
62:56
is some call it in new york
63:00
optimism i call it antagonism
63:03
it’s not ottomanism no turk is
63:06
interested in
63:07
osman nobody aragon is interested in
63:11
setting up a feasible
63:15
military political power
63:18
that needs maritime roots in the east
63:21
met
63:22
the oil and gas that’s no issue it’s
63:24
greek islands
63:25
it’s cyprus it’s egypt
63:29
it’s real geographical interests
63:32
are not related to serbia or croatia
63:36
or greece it’s the ottoman
63:39
turkish heartland the turks are not
63:42
coming from europe
63:43
the turks are coming from central
63:46
asia is met
63:49
it’s a geographical maritime issue
63:53
trade access for turkey for
63:56
everything if it’s not interested in
64:00
in a geographical lock-in
64:03
due to where it is it’s the east met it
64:06
needs to have open seas
64:09
and that contradicts with international
64:12
law
64:13
and whichever
64:18
if the region is able to set up a
64:22
structure
64:23
i even and do not misunderstand me
64:28
i would even say for eastmats
64:32
energy turkey is your main
64:36
client for eastman security
64:40
turkey is the main opponent
64:45
and to deal with both set
64:48
up and east met security for
64:53
or is okay we have it but okay
64:56
but done as an international
64:59
organization
65:01
not a nato not a western
65:05
european union because
65:08
that was a failure but organized it
65:11
first as east met
65:13
and used the assistance of france and
65:16
italy do not let them lead it
65:19
because then again you’re a follower
65:24
you’re not dealer
65:28
mr johnson would you like to add your
65:29
thoughts on all this including nato
65:33
yeah on the nato aspect there are some
65:35
interesting elements there at play
65:38
as everyone has pointed out certainly
65:40
turkey is is causing a lot of problems
65:42
between nato countries greece and turkey
65:44
directly of course
65:46
and one of the issues with nato and i
65:49
couldn’t agree more that it needs to
65:51
modernize a great deal the the
65:52
circumstances under which it came into
65:55
being
65:56
essentially the cold war have gone there
65:58
are similar problems
66:00
existing in certain areas but the
66:01
overall world situation is quite
66:03
different so there’s no question they
66:04
have to adjust
66:06
i think this turkey problem uh is
66:09
perhaps
66:10
something that’s going to give some
66:11
impetus to that but nato doesn’t even
66:14
have a way for example to
66:16
they don’t have the rules in place to
66:17
say vote turkey out or something like
66:20
that
66:20
both france and germany have talked
66:22
about this as an issue i don’t know if
66:24
they’re serious about it or merely using
66:26
it as it as a
66:28
negotiating tactic to put pressure on
66:30
turkey to sort of
66:31
comply and kind of pull back its horns a
66:34
bit uh
66:35
but one thing that has been left out of
66:37
the discussion so far
66:38
to the for the for the impact on all
66:40
this is the eu
66:41
and much of what france is saying to
66:44
justify their
66:45
support for greece for example is that
66:47
it’s a a member eu country turkey had
66:49
applied at one point but
66:51
uh because of their human rights records
66:52
and all these political prisoners
66:54
sitting in jail
66:55
uh they’re nowhere near it now the talks
66:57
have broken down so that’s
66:59
not even under consideration anymore uh
67:01
so the eu
67:02
is a very important factor on this and i
67:05
think that
67:06
is going to to perhaps play as a larger
67:09
factor than
67:10
even nato as to how the security in the
67:14
mediterranean region plays out
67:16
especially the eastern mediterranean
67:17
uh region uh and we’ve already seen a
67:20
lot more pressure on
67:22
uh eu than we have on nato we’ve had a
67:25
member
67:26
eu country vote to leave eu and that has
67:29
created some problems a lot of the
67:31
member
67:32
countries are in you know dire economic
67:34
straits
67:35
how this plays out i don’t know but i i
67:38
uh there you know there’s many things
67:39
that we could kind of predict
67:42
i think one of the problems with having
67:44
the eastern mediterranean
67:46
unto itself sort of uh arise with only
67:49
support from
67:50
eu countries and be on its own is you
67:53
need
67:54
the economic wherewithal to make that
67:56
work
67:57
and uh i just don’t think that exists
68:00
strictly within that region there’s
68:01
too many problems and conflicts and uh
68:04
you know past
68:05
wars that have impact so uh where that
68:07
leadership would come from where the
68:08
economic clout would come
68:10
from to put it together and make it work
68:12
i don’t know i’m not
68:13
predicting an outcome on that because i
68:15
just don’t know there are
68:17
so many forces at play and so many
68:19
people
68:20
urgently interested in their own uh you
68:23
know powers and money and so on
68:25
generally it’s power and money that
68:26
makes the world go around in these
68:28
circumstances and we see russia for
68:30
example i mean make no mistake gas prom
68:33
from russia is a weapon it’s always been
68:35
a weapon the way the soviet union was
68:37
organized from the very
68:38
beginning uh was so that all of the
68:40
satellite
68:41
soviet union countries were dependent on
68:44
uh on those resources coming out of
68:45
mother russia so
68:47
a gas problem has always been used that
68:49
way it’s been used
68:50
to aggressively take control of economic
68:55
uh resources and just for example since
68:57
we’ve been talking about armenia
68:59
much of armenia was bought up by gas
69:01
problem and it was because they weren’t
69:03
able to
69:03
pay the bills when it when the soviet
69:05
union broke apart they
69:06
had a lot of problems paying bills and
69:08
so gas prompt took a lot of things and
69:10
um so that country economically is very
69:13
dependent on russia so
69:15
that would be one of my you know
69:18
warnings to the area
69:20
on the energy thing personally i don’t
69:22
really have a dog in the fight don’t
69:23
care where the pipelines get laid
69:25
but i would say go for forward with this
69:27
with eyes open and be very cautious
69:29
because
69:30
a lot of players in that region russia
69:32
in particular
69:34
are weaponizing energy
69:37
and will gladly use that get people into
69:40
debt
69:41
and then use that to aggressively take
69:42
over economic resources
69:44
in lieu of payment where then they they
69:46
control your economy they have too much
69:48
interest and can
69:49
create too many problems so i think the
69:51
eu
69:52
is it in breakup is the uh you know
69:55
nato is it in breakup certainly there is
69:58
a crisis
69:59
uh forming with turkey on the other hand
70:02
economically it’s better off than it’s
70:04
been for many decades with the
70:06
pressure that president trump has put on
70:07
remember the member states to
70:09
pay in the amount that they’re obligated
70:11
to pay so there’s more money in nato
70:13
than ever before and some of the weapons
70:15
systems have come up
70:16
things are becoming more sophisticated
70:18
and the sharing of that
70:19
technology and weaponry is something
70:21
that’s that’s very very useful
70:23
so uh there’s a lot of of reasons why
70:27
member states of nato would want to
70:29
stay in nato can it keep that active and
70:32
evolve
70:33
with the changing world situation i
70:36
don’t know it’s it’s it’s a tough one to
70:37
predict and
70:38
i would say the eu is less better
70:40
positioned because of their
70:42
economic sharing system with the single
70:45
monetary system and all of that where
70:47
certain member states are just
70:49
economically and you know free fall
70:51
and others are in better shape that then
70:53
have to pay for those other countries so
70:54
that’s
70:55
that’s a real pressure and i think
70:56
that’s one of the motives why we saw
70:58
england decide to vote to withdraw from
71:01
eu so
71:02
i don’t think we can uh underestimate
71:05
the influence that these problems in eu
71:07
will also have
71:08
which just makes that whole problem more
71:10
complicated not less complicated i think
71:12
the future in that is going to be very
71:14
difficult to predict for a while
71:17
i would like to make sure that we get
71:19
onto matters concerning china
71:22
savas what is the significance of
71:24
china’s one belt
71:26
one road project in the region and is it
71:28
seen as a benefit to stability
71:30
or a recipe for disaster
71:36
well that’s a one million dollar
71:38
question uh
71:40
china trying to prevail
71:44
in the world they try to establish
71:46
themselves as the number one
71:48
economic power and i have to say that if
71:52
it was not
71:53
for the communist party uh running
71:56
china uh that would have become a
71:58
reality long time ago
72:00
nevertheless uh they are uh they are
72:03
working towards that
72:04
and they are doing it in such a way
72:07
where
72:08
they basically buy the most important
72:11
routes
72:12
around the world and they
72:15
buy the factories that produce the raw
72:17
materials
72:19
which drives their economy they have
72:22
been able to
72:23
extend in the eastern mediterranean
72:27
and their prime price of course is the
72:33
port of perez one of the most strategic
72:36
uh ports uh definitely in the
72:38
mediterranean but
72:39
probably in the world and it’s not only
72:43
that
72:45
that i have to tell you that raises a
72:47
lot of questions
72:48
with the usa and in discussions we had
72:51
with
72:52
cabinet members and elected officials
72:55
that remains a very alarming
72:59
subject and it’s been followed very
73:03
closely by
73:04
the united states so
73:07
for the chinese it seems to be working
73:10
for the time being
73:12
what the eventual outcome will be it
73:14
remains to be seen
73:15
but it is it is definitely a very
73:18
problematic
73:20
approach by the chinese rajin
73:23
uh trying to use the uh trojan horse
73:26
technique uh to basically
73:30
rupees and i have to say that they’re
73:33
doing
73:33
a terrific job in pursuing their own
73:36
interests
73:38
andreas would you like to add the matter
73:40
of china
73:48
i would like i would like to add
73:50
something about china
73:51
because in the latest information is
73:53
that the one belt one world project
73:56
has a financial collapse
74:00
the chinese flu comes back to
74:05
china returned back to china through the
74:08
financial way
74:09
through this one bill one road so
74:13
uh all the whole project is in the age
74:15
of collapse
74:16
the depth the depth is on the hands of
74:19
the government there
74:21
so the chinese trying to influence the
74:24
world and to dominate the world
74:26
through this project uh but
74:29
because of this collapse uh they
74:32
returned back the debt to the
74:33
governments
74:34
uh it’s a very critical situation i i
74:37
i will not uh i i will insist to say
74:40
that
74:43
the whole situation in the middle east
74:45
also affects
74:46
china and also the whole situation in
74:49
eurasia
74:50
affects china because it’s another
74:54
obstacle
74:55
any let’s say that
74:58
any fire in the region of the vitamin of
75:02
eurasia
75:03
is obstacle for the chinese
75:07
optimistic for the chinese projects
75:09
right let’s say the same in
75:11
kafka we face that in libya
75:14
we saw that in afghanistan 20 years ago
75:19
and in middle east in iraq and we also
75:23
uh we see that also in poland
75:26
now uh it’s it’s it’s difficult
75:30
for the chinese to pass these
75:34
obstacles so every obstacle
75:37
is uh in in the let’s say in the rimland
75:41
right in the ring around the eurasia
75:44
it’s a obstacle with the target
75:48
the target of this for this sort of
75:50
these obstacles is the chinese
75:52
is the china right this uh
75:56
this is my opinion and we will we will
75:59
see that
76:00
in the next years and i think
76:04
africa also it’s a
76:08
it will play a significant role
76:10
significant role
76:12
uh to that um
76:15
but i i will allow me to
76:18
to think about the uh just to
76:21
address some assessments at the end of
76:24
the
76:25
conversation uh for now what
76:28
that all what what i want to say about
76:30
the chinese
76:32
right
76:36
collapsed dr witterscheven do you want
76:40
to add about um
76:41
the matter of china in the region yes
76:46
um
76:50
if i’m is passing over
76:53
i i would love that your opinions
76:57
would read some more assessments that
77:00
are
77:00
coming out of the
77:04
usa uh the main
77:08
reason is that in
77:12
europe and in the arab world um
77:16
the understanding of the position of
77:19
obor one belt one vote or the new spell
77:22
code
77:24
um is looked upon as if it’s
77:27
not geopolitics but geo
77:30
economics so it means it’s it’s
77:34
an instrument that supports
77:39
globalization and the good of all
77:41
which if you look at
77:44
the outcome we have of over right now
77:48
is that the advantages
77:51
are more on the chinese side than on the
77:55
rest
77:55
of the world i’m not only
78:00
talking about as
78:03
um was it
78:07
stated energy was and is
78:11
used by russia as a weapon
78:14
obor can also be used as a weapon
78:18
because then
78:21
if you look at the geography of the
78:26
world and you project on
78:29
that map global trade flows
78:34
you see a huge threat flow going from
78:38
europe via the middle east to
78:42
asia up and out to
78:46
uh i know if you then look
78:51
at the investments that
78:55
china’s obor or selkrude has
78:58
done especially it’s in ports
79:02
and all of these sports wherever they
79:05
are
79:05
doing it are linked to
79:08
the trade flows between europe and china
79:12
so in a geoeconomical
79:16
assessment you would say that’s
79:20
normal because that’s
79:23
how we also were doing it
79:26
in the 16th 17th and 18th century
79:31
but also there it was not purely
79:35
economical because ownership or
79:39
access to international
79:42
ports means your navy
79:46
or your military or your security and
79:50
intelligence
79:51
forces have also access
79:54
and this is what in europe is still
79:58
not understood fully
80:01
the chinese ownership of pierre reyes
80:04
the access to
80:06
cyprus the right of landing of the
80:10
chinese
80:10
navy and the port of haifa the ownership
80:15
of
80:15
parts of the port of genoa
80:18
the proposed access to trieste
80:23
ownerships of parts of the port of
80:27
rotterdam are directly
80:31
directly linked to power projections and
80:35
i’m not
80:35
talking about economical power
80:38
projections
80:39
of the chinese
80:43
at the same time where you
80:46
look at new
80:49
port investment of the chinese they are
80:52
not
80:53
economically a part of for the chinese
80:56
and sudan or g booty
81:00
or somewhere else in the horn of africa
81:03
or
81:04
in sierra leone or wherever
81:07
there is no real commercial driver
81:10
behind that
81:11
there is no hinterland it’s just
81:14
again look at the geography it fits
81:18
exactly right into maritime
81:23
trade flows remarkably and also
81:27
somehow arabic countries are waking up
81:31
in this uber does not include the
81:34
world except egypt and egypt because
81:38
of the suez canal all
81:42
or most of the investment of china in
81:45
egypt
81:46
are surrounding the suvaskana
81:49
at the same time jib booty also but
81:53
no port developments in the uae
81:58
in bahrain in qatar and iraq
82:02
in saudi what they are
82:06
involved in pakistan
82:09
in sri lanka
82:14
if you again look why would
82:18
china own a port in syria
82:22
it’s not that china is going to earn a
82:26
multi-billion
82:28
margin in sri lanka no it blocks
82:32
navy and maritime movements
82:36
any maritime movement of the any
82:39
indian navy and any traffic
82:43
related to india um
82:48
the the financial
82:52
situation of obor is under russia
82:57
and that’s what i would say that’s the
83:01
government impact
83:06
people are waking up that we have been
83:09
having a globally is
83:12
station which had one single spider and
83:15
a spider web and the spider was sitting
83:18
in china every single
83:22
production project of europe
83:25
and the usa and the house of the world
83:28
rented
83:29
china we did not understand
83:32
obor is an issue but if something
83:35
happens in china
83:36
we are not getting our fridge or the
83:40
motif is going flat
83:45
all all our production in china
83:49
and then you have obor
83:52
we we have been caught in a spider
83:57
web and maybe we should start uh
84:04
approach also in geo
84:08
politics looking at normal military
84:11
strategy do not put all your forces and
84:14
assets in one
84:16
place because then the enemy bombs the
84:20
one place and you lose no spread
84:23
your power or your production
84:27
or your access to markets
84:30
to a wide range
84:33
of markets
84:36
produced not only in china okay
84:40
that’s trump thingy somehow
84:44
we are getting the same in europe
84:47
it’s called mega make europe
84:51
great again even that will uh will
84:54
take longer than america because not
84:59
everybody
85:00
agrees yeah germany but
85:06
the only thing that is going to hit
85:09
china also obor is when we are not
85:13
anymore
85:14
focusing everything on china
85:17
we also can bring things to india we can
85:20
bring things to
85:22
mexico if there is no wall um
85:25
we can bring things to egypt we can
85:28
bring
85:29
things to greece yeah
85:32
it’s it’s oberg
85:36
it’s chinese colonialistic
85:40
approach 2.0 you
85:44
take access to the maritime
85:48
trade route you are able to block
85:51
maritime
85:52
trade routes
86:02
you can block and x
86:08
correct what’s gonna happen erdogan is
86:11
gonna talk to china
86:14
because believe that the chinese would
86:17
love to have
86:18
access in turkey it could even block
86:22
russia because i do not believe in a
86:25
russian
86:25
chinese rapprochement
86:29
or military cooperation or
86:32
economic cooperation
86:35
russia the thinkers the strategics
86:38
are living in europe on the european
86:42
side
86:42
siberia is big etc it’s asia
86:46
nothing is in there yep
86:50
mr johnson china is a tough
86:54
situation
86:57
yes i think uh your initial question
86:59
began with the
87:00
belts and roads and i think that’s a
87:02
deeply significant point
87:04
i’d like to go back to and again
87:06
speaking of
87:07
of uh of techniques and uh being
87:10
weaponized i think that’s one of the
87:11
ones that has been heavily weaponized
87:13
by the chinese and uh
87:17
though that program if it were a u.s
87:20
program being run in the u.s would
87:22
actually be illegal
87:23
because it would come under the
87:25
predatory lending laws
87:27
and would be the guys would go to jail
87:29
who put it together
87:30
and what china has done they’ve been
87:31
very aggressive for a long time
87:34
we’re focusing largely on the
87:36
mediterranean region but that’s
87:37
something that’s been used
87:39
very aggressively in a lot of africa and
87:41
if you take a look
87:43
uh at the way that these programs are
87:46
set up they’re actually designed in such
87:49
a way where they bring in things that
87:51
are very useful
87:52
particularly ports there’s no question
87:54
that maritime is
87:55
very high on the list for china just as
87:58
a general subject
88:00
but also the the actual roads in
88:02
different areas that uh
88:04
that where infrastructure is being built
88:06
on these loans and programs that
88:08
china puts together but as i say if you
88:10
go in and dig through the details
88:12
it’s clear that these programs are set
88:15
up such in such a way
88:16
that many areas of this can never be
88:19
paid back
88:20
and that’s the predatory lending aspect
88:22
of them so they’re designed
88:24
such that it gives china eventual
88:26
control over a lot of these economic
88:29
uh powerhouse issues in those countries
88:32
maritime courts being just of particular
88:34
interest but airports as well
88:36
and uh let’s face it i mean china’s
88:39
goals and being in the economic
88:42
superpower
88:43
of the world are pretty clear we’ve seen
88:46
uh
88:47
out in the south china sea in the south
88:49
south pacific just how aggressive they
88:51
are
88:51
and in many in many ways and
88:53
intelligence
88:54
building islands that they’ve
88:55
militarized building landing strips on
88:57
them and things like that
88:58
and i would say from their perspective
89:02
they view this
89:02
uh as sort of a modern silk road if you
89:06
will
89:06
through the south china sea and maritime
89:09
uh
89:10
commerce and so they want absolute and
89:13
complete control of it something that’s
89:14
been well covered here by the doctor
89:17
and so i it does expand out into other
89:20
areas and we’ve seen them be
89:21
very aggressive in africa very
89:23
aggressive in latin america
89:25
very aggressive in the caribbean and of
89:27
course they use that to their advantage
89:28
politically as well to make
89:30
these countries be more suitable for
89:32
them to control influence and do
89:34
business with
89:35
and i would it’s a funny
89:38
level out of the caribbean but uh
89:40
there’s a barbados is a country that
89:42
was uh colonized by the british it still
89:44
has uh very long time
89:46
uh traditions and a close relationship
89:49
with england
89:50
and uh the queen of england is deeply
89:52
popular traditionally in
89:53
in that island country but they were
89:55
part of that belts and
89:56
a rhodes program now with china and
89:58
they’ve gained so much influence in such
89:59
a foothold
90:00
that they’re even uh politically it’s
90:03
going
90:03
they’re going through it right now in in
90:05
barbados that
90:06
saying that they no longer recognize the
90:09
queen
90:10
and so now they’re they’re they’re going
90:11
that’s you know part of the chinese
90:13
communist
90:14
uh political goals is to is to back them
90:16
away from that so that there’s no
90:18
monarch involved and of course that
90:20
leaves room then for the
90:22
chinese communist party to have far more
90:23
influence in the island country so
90:25
it’s one of those worldwide programs
90:27
that we’re seeing play out everywhere
90:28
again as i said weaponize one of those
90:30
things where the
90:32
predatory lending aspect of this is is
90:35
the weaponization of it
90:36
and it’s done in conjunction with all of
90:38
those aspects uh including
90:40
controlling the ports but also allowing
90:43
political influence
90:44
allowing chinese military influence
90:46
being able to
90:48
have free access to those ports but also
90:50
in something that’s almost never talked
90:52
about
90:53
is how aggressive they are in the
90:55
intelligence field i would
90:56
one little anecdote on that here in the
90:58
united states
91:00
you know the fbi about two years ago now
91:03
was ordered to start uh combating some
91:05
of these chinese intelligence inroads
91:06
that they’ve made
91:07
and we’ve had uh you know dozens of
91:10
arrests people already in jail
91:12
people uh connected to chinese
91:14
intelligence being sent home and there’s
91:16
just
91:16
dozens and dozens of these cases out
91:18
there now that the fbi has
91:20
scratched the dirt and started to look
91:21
for it we’re just seeing how aggressive
91:23
they’ve been
91:24
and we’ve seen that play out in many of
91:26
the uh
91:27
asian countries including australia
91:29
where there have been a lot of
91:30
high-level cases going on there where
91:32
chinese intelligence has just been
91:34
just stunningly busy and same with the
91:37
programs here in the united states it’s
91:39
incredible
91:40
just how comprehensive
91:43
chinese efforts are and even even trying
91:46
to create alternative economic
91:48
monetary programs to influence the world
91:51
economy
91:51
and i would point out to everyone
91:53
remember you know the largest
91:55
single producer of bitcoin is china
91:59
and why because it’s not an economic uh
92:02
it’s not the dollar that’s
92:03
can be controlled in many ways by the
92:05
united states where they can
92:06
do economic sanctions it’s outside of
92:09
that system so it can be independent
92:11
from it so they’re all in
92:12
and very busy across the board in an
92:14
absolutely
92:15
comprehensive fashion and the belts and
92:18
roads program is just one little aspect
92:20
of this
92:21
huge comprehensive worldwide program
92:23
that’s uh that’s effective
92:25
and dangerous okay
92:29
if i if i were to uh add something
92:34
on the discussion of china i believe
92:37
with the re-election uh for the possible
92:41
re-election
92:41
of trump uh you can expect
92:46
a major showdown between the united
92:48
states and
92:49
and china that is gonna change
92:54
a lot of things they are not fools they
92:57
know what’s going on
92:59
but as a result of the pandemic
93:03
we have seen here in the united states
93:06
that dependence on china
93:09
and what it could do to the american
93:12
the u.s economy with the announcements
93:16
of
93:17
of trump trying to basically bring back
93:22
everything from china and the u.s being
93:25
the number one client
93:26
of chinese you’re gonna have a shake-up
93:30
in the relationship and
93:32
and the basically is not gonna be
93:34
limited to the bilateral
93:36
relations between the u.s and china but
93:39
it’s going to
93:40
it’s going to extend to the surrogates
93:41
of the two countries
93:44
it is not being a notice that china is
93:46
trying to control the world
93:49
through the discussion the actions we
93:52
discussed
93:53
and they have as i said earlier they
93:55
have been doing a very very good job and
93:57
they tried to stay under
93:58
the radar but
94:01
i think there is a new look a fresh look
94:04
at their approach
94:05
because it’s endangering the
94:09
the order i would say i want to move on
94:12
to the peace agreements
94:13
as well what is the magnitude of actions
94:16
from places like kosovo and serbia
94:19
in the region and the movement of the
94:21
embassies to israel
94:22
are we seeing a trend developing and
94:24
what’s the significance of that trend
94:28
well uh one significant aspect of that
94:31
agreement
94:32
is that it prevents turkey
94:36
i don’t know in what extent but
94:38
definitely to move it to the balkans
94:41
kosovo has been one of their proxies for
94:44
many years and they have been supporting
94:46
them
94:47
and that’s why they are very very upset
94:50
that the deal went through to begin with
94:52
but to make it even worse uh the the
94:55
relocation
94:56
of the of their embassy to jerusalem
94:59
sends some very very strong messages
95:02
to turkey it has a direct
95:06
effects on the developments in the area
95:10
and definitely definitely puts
95:14
his countries uh on on a different
95:18
standing uh with the united states
95:22
i would agree with
95:25
the doctor that maybe some of these
95:29
some of these things were in the works
95:32
for years but it took a catalyst it took
95:35
someone to push it to become a reality
95:37
so we shouldn’t overlook that
95:39
and i we shouldn’t over exaggerate it
95:41
but at the same time we shouldn’t
95:43
we shouldn’t ignore it either
95:47
it took the leadership of the united
95:48
states to make it happen
95:50
it took the leadership of the united
95:51
states to bring coastal west serbia
95:53
together
95:54
it took the united states to push them
95:56
to relocate their embassy to
95:58
jerusalem that says a lot so
96:01
it seems that uh through these actions
96:04
america
96:04
even though being absent from the
96:06
eastern mediterranean in the area for a
96:08
long time and even when they were there
96:11
they left a disaster behind
96:12
let’s don’t forget uh what happened
96:16
uh in the region in
96:19
in libya there is no libya today
96:23
what happened in syria uh what happened
96:26
for a short time in egypt so
96:30
we can be very proud of some
96:33
american uh actions in the area in the
96:36
past
96:36
but it seems that there is a new focus
96:40
uh and these agreements and these
96:42
developments show
96:43
that the united states has decided not
96:46
to
96:46
not to be absent from the area even
96:49
though i will expect
96:51
a more significant participation in the
96:54
in the future
96:58
definitely in following the turkish
97:01
press on a daily basis i can tell you
97:04
that
97:04
the turkish government erdogan himself
97:08
and all of his allies
97:11
within turkey including the opposition
97:13
party have
97:15
condemned the agreements between bahrain
97:19
and the
97:21
united arab emirates and they have
97:23
condemned the agreement between
97:25
kosovo and serbia and they have
97:27
condemned their location of the embassy
97:30
uh to jerusalem so all these different
97:33
parts of the puzzle
97:34
are interrelated uh so
97:38
uh we will watch and see
97:41
how many more countries are gonna follow
97:43
uh i believe that uh
97:45
in the very near future you’re gonna
97:47
have for probably two or three more
97:49
and as i said earlier the biggest uh the
97:52
biggest price
97:52
is saudi arabia we’re just gonna
97:56
put the area on a new standing
98:01
so it would be quite interesting to
98:04
watch how everything
98:05
evolves and how uh since we
98:08
are based in the united
98:14
the players in the states and how the
98:17
american foreign policy
98:20
is being played out in the area i can’t
98:23
say that we have been successful in many
98:26
parts of the world we have miscalculated
98:29
and we have misjudged uh many situations
98:33
and we have gotten ourselves involved in
98:36
some bad situations
98:37
i hope we have become wiser
98:40
from the past and we can use the past as
98:43
a springboard
98:44
uh to the future um
98:47
so uh having said that i i think
98:51
uh definitely they are significant and
98:53
definitely
98:54
will reshape not change reshape
98:58
uh the future of the area
99:01
andreas would you like to add to that
99:08
yes i would like to add that uh i have
99:10
been in kosovo
99:11
and in balkan several times and i was
99:14
there for
99:16
months and many many months so i would
99:19
like to add that
99:21
behind of the kosovo it was
99:25
turkey and a lot of arab arab states
99:28
and we all know that behind of the
99:30
serbia was the russians
99:32
and some somewhere in the middle it was
99:35
in nature
99:36
all right now um
99:39
from the that’s why it’s so important
99:41
regia
99:42
right and this forum also from the
99:46
southeast china to the middle east into
99:49
the central
99:50
balkans of course if we were focused on
99:53
the kosovo in serbia
99:54
everything is changing in the caucasus
99:57
too
99:58
everything is changing and we
100:01
we observe that the the
100:04
last mounds and especially uh
100:08
after the during the administration the
100:11
trump administration
100:13
we we face these changes i mean in the
100:16
positive way
100:17
and i totally agree with savas in the
100:19
positive way
100:21
and so a lot of arab countries step back
100:25
in the case of kosovo the turkey stay
100:28
alone there
100:30
without the the without the backup of
100:32
the most
100:33
arab countries except the qatar of
100:35
course
100:36
and and serbia
100:39
he see he so so the the the
100:43
opportunity to fix a problem all right
100:46
and to think the
100:50
the future without the russia influence
100:53
something that the russians they don’t
100:54
they don’t want
100:56
and this is why my assessment about the
101:00
future in balkans
101:02
it’s a very let’s allow me to say dark
101:06
because there is a huge arsenal
101:10
always ready to to burn
101:13
to the ashes and it’s like a laboratory
101:17
who
101:18
big powers and play their
101:21
interest and play for the interests so
101:26
of course it’s a very positive and uh
101:29
keeps turkey out of this game and
101:32
changing the area and keep
101:33
also russia out of the balkans all right
101:36
however
101:38
in case that in case that the us
101:42
administration will change we will face
101:46
another allowed me to say that
101:50
it’s very possible another war in balkan
101:54
all right so this is
101:57
it’s not political statement but this is
101:59
an analysis
102:01
right we face that with under the
102:03
democrat democrats
102:04
democratic administration and
102:08
it’s very possible to to see that again
102:12
however so far uh
102:15
the peaceful balkans all right and and i
102:18
hope that this
102:19
will continue thank you something i want
102:22
to get
102:23
um your perspective on from all three of
102:26
you
102:26
is several analysts are talking about
102:29
being a pre-world war one
102:31
and world war ii setup um an axis setup
102:35
in the region
102:37
could you guys speak to that and i mean
102:39
we have different players obviously this
102:41
time but who
102:42
are those players
102:46
brad if you could start us
102:50
sure uh happy too i
102:53
i do see parallels personally between
102:56
there are elements of pre-world war one
102:58
and elements of pre-world war
103:00
ii uh and some of these we’ve already
103:02
commented on but
103:04
uh you do have say elements on one side
103:08
we haven’t talked about some of the
103:10
economic ties between
103:11
say china and turkey but they’ve already
103:14
signed 10 major economic agreements
103:16
between
103:17
china and turkey and billions of dollars
103:20
china has bailed out
103:22
turkey a couple of times so those those
103:24
economic ties already exist and the
103:27
relationship between china and turkey
103:28
are
103:29
are actually quite strong in a lot of
103:32
ways
103:33
and i think in many ways also they share
103:35
certain common goals
103:36
and common enemies so uh i think there
103:39
is a natural relationship there that you
103:41
could call
103:43
you know this is a very loose comparison
103:45
so you know forgive me
103:47
on on making it perhaps but you know you
103:49
could perhaps compare it to say the the
103:52
japan and and german world war ii
103:55
relationship where you had an axis form
103:57
around
103:58
kind of the two main members and others
104:00
italy and
104:01
other countries then joined in and i
104:03
think uh certainly there’s an argument
104:05
to be made that you could see something
104:07
like that forming say with
104:08
iran uh turkey
104:12
china forming the core particularly the
104:14
turkey and china forming a core of
104:16
of countries that have shared enemies
104:19
and goals
104:20
and and forming a relationship there
104:22
where they would be willing to go to war
104:23
with others to
104:24
accomplish these goals on the other side
104:26
of it something that’s been mentioned
104:28
already quite a little bit but this
104:30
gas club in arabic reporting that’s what
104:32
they’ve been calling it the gas club
104:33
that
104:34
people have mentioned for the
104:35
exploitation italy greece cyprus israel
104:37
palestinian authority egypt those
104:39
those countries are already kind of
104:40
joining together natural
104:42
other partners in this would be ones
104:44
that are say already being confronted
104:47
by china for example india india would
104:50
be a natural
104:51
ally for something like this especially
104:53
if it’s not
104:55
u.s centric i mean there is certain
104:58
areas even among allies in greece for
105:00
example and india
105:02
there’s a lot of anti-us sentiment among
105:05
the people at large
105:06
so you can see something like that
105:08
forming where the united states is kind
105:10
of on the side of all of this
105:12
and a lot of these problems as we’ve
105:13
kind of all touched on from different
105:15
aspects
105:16
the united states has not viewed this
105:19
eastern mediterranean and these issues
105:21
around this as a primary problem
105:23
and even like fighting back against
105:25
china that didn’t really even exist
105:27
uh up until president trump and then
105:29
only two years ago did the fbi even
105:31
start
105:32
looking at the chinese inroads and
105:34
intelligence issues so
105:35
the united states has a little bit
105:36
johnny come lately they’ve been uh
105:39
uh trump is willing to confront china
105:41
but then he’s very hands-off i think the
105:43
uh
105:44
my fellow panel members have all
105:46
mentioned the fact that the united
105:47
states has just basically
105:48
left syria for the most part and didn’t
105:51
really leave a policy in place they’ve
105:53
just backed off so
105:54
it’s like it’s a complicated situation
105:56
but it it looks like
105:58
you you you do have some
106:01
factions kind of siding together
106:04
to offset other factions who are in
106:06
general conflict in that sense
106:08
yes i find the comparisons to be kind of
106:12
kind of similar could this lead to world
106:13
war
106:15
yes i mean i don’t think we’re there yet
106:17
i don’t think it’s likely in the
106:19
short to medium term but uh who’s to say
106:22
what could happen over the next five
106:23
years if these conflicts grow
106:25
even a relatively small one like what’s
106:27
going on in our media
106:29
and uh and azerbaijan over the
106:31
nagorno-karabakh region
106:33
uh could that grow yes it could i mean
106:35
you have two major players in there
106:37
fighting now through their surrogates
106:38
and that’s russia and turkey so
106:41
uh and russian turkey let’s not forget
106:42
i’ve had three major conflicts through
106:44
history and some minor conflicts as well
106:46
so
106:47
these are guys that are not afraid to go
106:48
into shooting wars with each other
106:50
does it spin out of control doesn’t look
106:52
that way right now
106:54
but the elements are there where it
106:57
could
106:57
build to that sort of thing and so we’ll
107:00
see how all this plays out i wouldn’t
107:02
worry for
107:02
anything for this year or next perhaps
107:04
but the five to ten year
107:06
uh range i think we’re going to have a
107:08
lot better idea of just how dangerous
107:09
this is going to become
107:12
okay slavaz could you comment on that
107:18
yes uh i will agree with mr johnson
107:22
that even though uh not imminent
107:25
uh it’s a matter of time um
107:29
we see some of the dynamics uh
107:32
uh for world war one and and two uh
107:36
but there is a twist uh to today’s uh
107:38
development
107:40
uh if it were to be a spark
107:44
uh most probably caused by the
107:46
aggression of
107:48
turkey it would be very difficult
107:51
for someone to come to the aid of
107:55
turkey and who will
107:58
come to the aid of turkey possibly
108:02
there are three countries uh russia
108:05
china
108:05
and iran okay germany is questionable
108:10
why will russia come to the aid of
108:12
turkey
108:13
with the challenges we’re discussing
108:15
right now i think
108:17
russia would be looking to gain
108:20
uh against turkey in a potential
108:23
regional conflict
108:24
iran their rivals with turkey even
108:27
though they
108:28
they have some agreements but the same
108:31
thing will happen there
108:33
china in my opinion would be foolish to
108:36
get into
108:37
a global war uh in support of
108:40
a turkey with no tangible uh
108:45
advantages so uh and having
108:48
the two superpowers basically uh either
108:51
staying neutral
108:52
or deciding to take a side i don’t
108:56
believe that the united states would be
108:57
on the side of turkey this time around
109:00
uh unless things change in a dramatic
109:04
way
109:05
i think it would be uh limited to a
109:07
regional war
109:08
and as i said earlier is not if
109:12
it’s when it’s a matter of time uh
109:14
turkey
109:15
keeps pushing the envelope and either
109:18
through an accident
109:19
or unintended move
109:22
this is going to come to a head very
109:24
very quickly
109:27
there are some strong agreements in
109:29
place uh either through
109:30
uh the military agreement with uh france
109:34
or through the gas forum uh agreement
109:36
which
109:37
was recently instead institutionalized
109:40
uh which includes uh seven countries
109:45
so um i will watch it very carefully
109:49
i don’t think it’s gonna take five years
109:51
uh seriously uh
109:53
unless erdogan uh changes his whole
109:55
attitude
109:56
if erdogan manages to stay in power
109:59
in power which i uh highly doubt it
110:03
but i’m not uh optimistic that the next
110:06
one
110:08
is not going to be another orthogonal
110:10
it’s going to be the same philosophy and
110:12
we have seen it
110:15
so uh it’s a matter of time uh
110:18
uh that a conflict of
110:21
military
110:25
military conflict is going to happen
110:27
unless
110:28
of course russia and the united states
110:31
really decide to step in and
110:34
put turkey in its place by bidding
110:38
around the bush
110:39
by pacifying turkey i don’t believe they
110:42
have
110:42
helped turkey in any way they through
110:45
the
110:45
inactions especially of the united
110:48
states of the past years
110:50
have encouraged turkey uh to keep being
110:53
uh aggressive and pushing the envelope
110:57
and at some point uh you know something
111:00
is gonna happen
111:01
uh mr johnson said earlier that dertogan
111:04
uh would be pushing as much as
111:08
he can but ertagon is like a bully a
111:12
high school
111:12
bully until he’s confronted
111:16
he has tried to weaponize the refugees
111:21
at the border of greece uh bringing
111:23
thousands
111:24
in an organized marriage from costa
111:26
renewable he has done
111:28
he has tried to do it in their gym but
111:30
finally greece decided that this
111:32
is time to stand up and they did and i’m
111:34
glad they did for a change
111:36
uh and you saw the result uh
111:40
uh in the case of the refugees uh they
111:43
put them in buses and they took them
111:44
back where they brought them from
111:46
in the case of aegean even though they
111:48
uh they were threatening
111:50
finally they had to withdraw because
111:52
there was no one
111:54
uh that it was supporting them other
111:56
than the suspicious
111:57
uh germans so um we need to evaluate
112:01
these actions on a daily basis almost uh
112:04
hour by hour
112:05
not even uh on a daily basis
112:08
uh and we have we must watch very
112:11
carefully
112:12
uh to see the results of the of the
112:15
current uh
112:16
visit of the secretary of state mr
112:18
pompeo to greece
112:19
and what comes out of that and what
112:22
agreements might be
112:23
signed uh during his visit and
112:27
uh his most significant visit is going
112:30
to be
112:31
uh to go to the bay i don’t remember in
112:35
recent history
112:36
another secretary of state visiting suda
112:39
bay
112:40
so the united states has decided
112:43
to send some strong messages especially
112:46
to turkey and that’s why turkey is very
112:48
upset
112:49
so we remained on alert i believe
112:53
we shall remain on alert and evaluate
112:56
the outcome of all these discussions and
112:58
development
113:00
gentlemen we are hitting a time
113:02
constraint here
113:03
so if dr witter showed if you could uh
113:06
give us your closing statements
113:08
and um within that speak to the
113:12
you know matter we’re speaking to now if
113:14
you could keep it to about a minute or
113:16
two that’d be great
113:17
okay i’ll try um
113:22
first of all um yeah
113:26
the world and the geopolitical
113:31
situation is different than before world
113:34
war one and
113:34
world war ii um so i hope
113:38
that the multipolar
113:42
world we are ready now has
113:46
one f i think
113:49
that we will not have a
113:53
world wars to see and if there are
113:57
chances for the world war
113:59
three i would look at asia
114:03
first because china and india or china
114:09
south china sea
114:12
are more a precursor
114:16
for world war three than the east met
114:19
however um looking at what is
114:24
going on in um
114:28
turkey itself and
114:31
the region um do not underestimate the
114:35
danger that
114:36
the dog that is feeling
114:40
threatened can bite without
114:44
a warning and erdogan
114:47
is feeling threatened because
114:50
of the actions he is doing
114:54
but also part of the
114:57
the internal power
115:00
issues in turkey itself so
115:04
keep awake and do not
115:08
close your eyes too easily because
115:11
um there are a certain movements that
115:14
are
115:16
worrying however there are also
115:20
positive movements the israeli
115:24
arab issue um the overall counts are
115:28
promising and i would take another one
115:32
the fact of arrogance proactive
115:36
and aggressive moves have brought
115:40
to former political
115:43
enemies increasing israel together
115:46
because
115:47
what people maybe do not
115:50
anymore remember the word
115:53
decades that israel and these were not
115:57
heal friends
115:58
but these things have changed and i hope
116:01
that that’s going to be
116:02
to the best okay thank you dr whatever
116:07
savas could you give us your closing
116:08
statements
116:11
well a big thank you to you uh
116:14
for uh moderating today’s event again uh
116:17
congratulations andreas and
116:19
the paleologist chapter for an
116:21
outstanding job on behalf
116:23
of the entire i have a family i would
116:25
like to thank our viewers but also our
116:27
panelists for
116:30
today’s event it was very interesting
116:34
i believe we are we are experiencing
116:36
some unprecedented times
116:39
both around the world and here in the
116:41
united states
116:43
and there are some
116:46
very major and positive developments uh
116:49
in the eastern mediterranean that will
116:52
reshape the future of that area and will
116:55
help towards
116:56
peace and stability but
117:02
a lot of things can happen
117:05
you have someone that is constantly
117:07
provoking and through the provocation
117:10
you might have an unfortunate
117:13
accident that blow up the whole area
117:17
literally with consequences that nobody
117:21
can
117:22
imagine some say
117:26
that it might be a very short
117:30
military conflict that is not going to
117:33
be
117:33
expanded or extended
117:36
to other uh areas or other countries
117:41
but as mr johnson said before when you
117:43
have a conflict
117:45
a small conflict uh can trigger major
117:48
events
117:49
we have seen how the first war started
117:53
with the assassination of a of a priest
117:57
of a prince and the consequences
118:01
were tragic so it is
118:04
important that we review this event we
118:07
express our opinion
118:09
but at the same time it’s very important
118:11
that we follow the developments
118:12
in order to make a more intelligent
118:16
decision with that i thank you again and
118:19
it was an honor
118:20
to share today’s e-forum with such
118:23
distinguished panelists thank you savas
118:28
mr johnson if you could give us your
118:29
closing statements
118:31
and within that let us know some common
118:34
themes that we’re seeing
118:35
concerning access to energy resources
118:40
sure uh i uh i we’ve we’ve actually
118:44
touched on
118:45
but you know turkey’s kind of the
118:46
central theme here because they’re
118:48
uh in the scheme of things essentially
118:49
the grass are driving the situation if
118:52
you will
118:53
and we’ve discussed a a world war three
118:55
scenario
118:56
and uh touched on somewhat the far more
118:59
likely regional war of some sort or
119:01
another
119:02
and i i would uh go back to uh erdogan
119:05
as a man i mean i
119:06
i whether you love him or hate him i
119:08
don’t care
119:09
but i i think you all have to everyone
119:11
needs to recognize that he’s not an
119:13
idiot he’s not a stupid man he didn’t
119:16
come to power by being a fool he came to
119:18
power by being smart and aggressive
119:20
and rather ruthless and uh so with that
119:23
in mind
119:23
you know if if you can accept the fact
119:26
in my at least
119:27
that i would argue is fact that he wants
119:29
to re-establish
119:31
whatever you call it but a neo-ottoman
119:33
empire is just an easy term to
119:35
put on it but re-establish that sphere
119:37
of power around himself
119:39
i think we all recognize that cannot be
119:42
accomplished through treaties and
119:43
peaceful means
119:44
that can only be accomplished through
119:46
fighting so i would say that i
119:48
i do view a regional conflict of some
119:50
sort or another
119:52
uh to to be very likely not 100
119:55
perhaps but to be very likely and i
119:57
think we’re seeing the early stages of
119:59
that
119:59
and the libya and syria and the
120:01
azerbaijan
120:03
nagorno-karabakh region and those things
120:05
we’re seeing the early stages of what
120:07
appears to be building
120:08
as a conflict which is why i think that
120:11
erdogan is looking forward to that time
120:14
and why he wants to
120:15
capture and hold and maintain energy
120:17
resources for example
120:19
understanding that in periods of
120:20
conflict he would likely be cut off from
120:22
many of those resources so
120:24
he wants to control as much as he can
120:26
building to where he can have a larger
120:28
and larger conflict i think he’d be
120:29
stopped
120:30
before it got to the world war three
120:33
level
120:33
but uh you know those things remain to
120:35
be seen which is why i put that more
120:37
like five to ten year
120:38
to see if it builds that far without him
120:40
being stopped i would agree with the
120:42
other panelists that the uh
120:45
you know the united states i think would
120:47
step in it depends on who’s president
120:49
but i think the united states maybe
120:51
russia to some degree would step in
120:53
before it got to that
120:54
point but certainly keeping an eye on
120:57
that aggression is where we’re at right
120:58
now and and uh
120:59
there’s every indication that that it
121:01
that regional conflict is certainly in
121:03
the
121:03
the short medium term a very realistic
121:05
thing uh
121:07
i would close with saying i noticed my
121:09
other panelists
121:10
uh brought cigars to the discussion and
121:12
i wasn’t aware of that aspect of it so
121:14
next time i’ll know to bring a good
121:16
cigar for the further discussion and
121:18
thank you very much
121:19
andres and danielle for uh for the
121:22
discussion and the venue the forum to to
121:24
to discuss these important issues
121:26
thank you to all my fellow panel members
121:28
as well
121:30
that’s the beauty of being out in the
121:31
country in pennsylvania
121:33
uh mr johnson uh enjoying a cigar
121:37
it’s a beautiful day so i hope you
121:39
didn’t mind
121:41
uh miss walking i tried to refrain as
121:43
much as i could but
121:45
it was very tempting so i apologize
122:00
keep in mind that cereal she really is
122:02
smoking too oh okay
122:07
i am i am i would like to thank you
122:11
i would like to thank you all thank you
122:14
daniel
122:15
for the great
122:22
it was a really a very useful
122:26
a forum today a great conversation with
122:28
the
122:29
great points and
122:32
i have no no i have no words because uh
122:35
over all my uh the previous speakers for
122:39
cover all my uh my opinions
122:43
and all what i would like to say about
122:46
the this fragile situation of course we
122:48
are
122:49
we are in the edge of something very
122:52
huge
122:52
and we are here to follow the situation
122:56
to evaluate the situation to monitoring
122:59
the situation
123:01
and i’d like to say again all the
123:05
viewers
123:06
and uh keep in mind that the next sunday
123:10
we will talk about the pax mediterranean
123:14
which uh and macron use this uh
123:17
uh these words and uh
123:22
i don’t know how the situation would be
123:24
until the next week
123:27
and this is something interesting thank
123:30
you very much everybody
123:31
thank you thank you great thank you
123:34
thank you on behalf of the mediterranean
123:36
council and forum i would like to thank
123:38
our viewers around the world
123:40
for joining us today andreas thank you
123:42
for organizing the forum
123:44
and gentlemen we truly appreciate your
123:46
expertise and time
123:47
in today’s discussion it’s been great
123:49
thank you all
123:51
thank you thank you
124:29
so
1 thought on “EURASIA CONFIDENTIAL ΕΥΡΑΣΙΑ ΕΜΠΙΣΤΕΥΤΙΚΟ”
Many people don’t know that Lord Byron led the charge to free Greece from Turk occupation in the 1800s. It’s sad to think occupation and destruction of the Greece we know could happen again.
Many people don’t know that Lord Byron led the charge to free Greece from Turk occupation in the 1800s. It’s sad to think occupation and destruction of the Greece we know could happen again.