EURASIA CONFIDENTIAL ΕΥΡΑΣΙΑ ΕΜΠΙΣΤΕΥΤΙΚΟ

hello 00:36 i would like to welcome our viewers and 00:38 expert panel for today’s important 00:39 discussion 00:41 i would like to thank andreas zapounidis 00:43 for organizing this forum and panel of 00:45 experts 00:46 andreas is the executive director of the 00:48 mediterranean council in forum 00:50 president of the hepa hd calamaria 00:54 the secretary of association of the 00:57 a hellenic chapter a security risk 01:00 management 01:01 and community liaison consultant for the 01:03 energy and defense industry 01:05 and a retired senior nco of the hellenic 01:08 army 01:09 andreas i will hand it over to you for a 01:11 word about our sponsors 01:12 and today’s discussion 01:17 thank you very much thank you very much 01:20 miss miss daniel crimminsthank you very 01:22 much mr 01:23 mr brad johnson thank you very much sir 01:26 what is often 01:28 uh and uh we are waiting for mr c 01:31 because he’s on his way 01:33 um i would like to thank you everybody 01:36 that are here today 01:37 and also our viewers and 01:41 we we all know that the situation is 01:43 very fragile 01:44 in the mediterranean and eurasia 01:46 actually and according 01:48 with this escalation in the caucasus 01:52 uh we have a lot to to talk about uh 01:56 i want to stay along 01:59 and i will pass the the floor 02:02 to miss our moderator for the day 02:05 uh miss daniel crimins miss daniel 02:08 crimmins which is 02:09 she is a criminal justice strategic 02:11 intelligence 02:12 homeland security and mediterranean gas 02:16 on forum analyst on terrorism 02:18 so the the floor is yours miss 02:21 crimmins and 02:22 i would like to thank you again all so 02:24 that you are here and 02:26 i would like to thank all our viewers 02:28 and of course i would like to thank our 02:29 communication 02:30 sponsors uh pro news dot gr defense net 02:35 and of course 02:40 shop which is our 02:45 communications poster and that’s why 02:47 we’re on air 02:48 in facebook pages in our page in a hepa 02:52 ag 41 02:53 and mentoring custom form group and of 02:55 course live 02:56 live in youtube please subscribe 03:00 and follow our forums 03:03 so mr tsivicos is here too 03:07 welcome mr tsivicos hello everybody 03:11 sorry for being late but my assistant 03:15 here 03:15 my consultant would i get on on time 03:19 no problem thank you very much 03:23 the the floor is sure of miss screaming 03:25 thank you very much again all 03:27 thank you andres gentlemen today i would 03:30 like to address 03:31 quite a few topics that are greatly 03:32 affecting the region we have turkey as a 03:35 major threat 03:36 historic peace deals france calling for 03:38 a pax mediterranean 03:40 china’s one belt one road project among 03:43 a new axis of countries forming 03:45 that have some rumoring pre-world war ii 03:48 type relations 03:49 and then breaking news even the fragile 03:53 situation in armenia 03:55 there is a lot to cover today however i 03:57 would like to begin by giving each of 03:59 you a brief moment for opening 04:00 statements 04:01 concerning these historic events taking 04:03 place in the region 04:05 today we’re going to start with bradley 04:07 johnson representing the united states 04:09 mr johnson is the president of americans 04:12 for intelligence reform 04:14 a retired cia senior operations officer 04:17 in chief of station a columnist at epoch 04:20 times 04:21 and a regular expert speaker on national 04:24 cable news 04:25 mr johnson thank you for joining us 04:27 today the floor is yours for opening 04:28 statements 04:32 well thank you very much it’s a great 04:33 pleasure to join you again this is my 04:35 second one of these i feel very 04:36 fortunate to join 04:38 and i am just right outside of 04:41 washington dc 04:42 and hopefully have a finger on the pulse 04:44 of what’s going on and and 04:46 can contribute to the discussion i look 04:47 forward to it thank you for having me 04:49 again 04:50 thank you mr johnson next we have 04:53 savas tsivicos 04:54 representing cyprus and the united 04:56 states he is a supreme treasurer of a 04:58 hepa 04:59 the ceo of cypreca in cypreco industries 05:03 and the former president of the hellenic 05:05 federation of new jersey 05:07 welcome savas thank you for joining us 05:09 today the floor is yours 05:11 thank you danielle uh thank you andreas 05:14 and congratulations 05:15 uh for putting another great event 05:17 together 05:18 uh on behalf of aheba 05:24 the supreme uh la jolla would like to 05:26 thank uh all of you 05:28 especially our uh two speakers and 05:31 danielle for 05:32 coming together today uh to comment on 05:35 the latest uh developments 05:38 and it’s indeed a nice forum 05:41 to exchange ideas and also evaluate 05:45 what’s happening during these very 05:47 critical times 05:48 not only in east mediterranean but also 05:51 around the world 05:52 again a big thank you and then big thank 05:55 you 05:56 for uh supreme president george juriadis 06:00 thank you savage rounding out our panel 06:03 is dr 06:04 cjcg wittershoven representing the 06:06 netherlands 06:07 dr wittershoven is the global head of 06:09 strategy and risk for berry commodities 06:12 director of verisi editor of the journal 06:16 of petroleum resources and economics 06:19 director of mediterranean energy 06:21 political risk consultancy 06:23 and a renowned middle east expert dr 06:25 wittershoven thank you for joining us 06:27 today the floor is yours 06:29 okay thank you it’s now my second time 06:35 um between my first time and the 06:38 second time a 06:41 lot of issues again became 06:45 hopper even 06:49 as we have seen in the weekend 06:53 geo politics it does not 06:56 stop and the azerbaijan 06:59 armenia issue is now again 07:04 heating up so i’m very very 07:07 interested to see and to hear of what 07:11 everybody is thinking thank you 07:16 thank you dr whittaker i’d like to start 07:19 off 07:19 with the issues surrounding turkey mr 07:22 johnson we have erdogan with his wishes 07:24 to bring about a new ottoman empire both 07:27 forming alliances and angry neighbors in 07:29 the region 07:31 he’s causing unrest in multiple 07:32 countries but i would like to start with 07:35 the complex relations 07:37 between turkey and russia can you speak 07:39 to those complex relations 07:43 yes and and it uh it’s it’s one of those 07:46 things where uh 07:48 uh you know there’s so many 07:49 ramifications to it and 07:51 russia and turkey both look at the world 07:54 as 07:54 all of us do in our countries we view 07:56 the whole world from 07:58 our own optics so russia and turkey are 08:01 kind of 08:03 i like the term that people use 08:04 frenemies because they’re both friends 08:06 and enemies and all at the same time 08:08 they do have 08:09 areas of cooperation but they have areas 08:12 of conflict as well and certainly we’ve 08:14 seen 08:15 turkey’s threats to do things like close 08:18 the boss for us that and closing the 08:19 bosphorus is designed for 08:21 one thing only from passing to the black 08:24 sea to the mediterranean 08:26 it would isolate the russian black black 08:28 sea fleet which 08:30 uh of course that has impact in his show 08:32 of power 08:33 off the coast of libya and that’s a 08:35 major place where 08:36 uh turkey is playing out its foreign 08:39 policy 08:40 and of course that treaty made between 08:43 libya 08:44 and turkey that claims the sea between 08:47 the two countries 08:48 of which large portions of greek waters 08:52 fall into that so that’s that’s a key 08:54 element it’s one of their international 08:56 justifications for 08:58 uh being aggressive in the uh in the 09:00 seas they’re around the greek islands 09:02 and 09:02 claiming them for their own and i think 09:04 the bottom line always goes back to 09:06 energy but 09:08 there are also areas of cooperation 09:10 there are areas where they discuss 09:12 but there’s actually and this is very 09:14 important 09:15 uh armenia was already mentioned once 09:18 once that’s an area where 09:20 through surrogates they’re at war and 09:23 uh you’ve got russian back russia 09:25 backing armenia on the one hand 09:27 and you’ve got turkey backing the 09:29 azerbaijanis on the other hand 09:32 and just within the last 24 hours that 09:34 has heated up a great deal 09:36 and i think everyone’s aware of it but 09:38 multiple tanks and helicopters and 09:40 things like that the armenians have 09:41 claimed to shoot down 09:43 and uh they’ve got a 09:46 superior tactical position and so 09:48 they’re in a position to do those sorts 09:50 of things they’ve got the high ground 09:51 and are are uh 09:53 are dug in and have all of this russian 09:55 equipment in training 09:56 and i would be very surprised not to 09:59 hear that they don’t have russian 10:00 advisors there working with them 10:02 and the azerbaijanis then have to attack 10:04 so this is turkey and russia playing out 10:07 through these surrogates uh and that’s a 10:10 that’s a heated up 10:11 war they’re shooting at each other so 10:13 it’s a very complex thing 10:15 the turks and the russians have had what 10:17 three major wars in history lots of 10:19 conflicts 10:20 so i think they’re tipping towards 10:23 conflict 10:24 rather than cooperation and uh i’m 10:27 afraid of how that’s going to play out 10:28 in the long run but certainly the 10:29 conflicts are what’s 10:30 coming to the fore now 10:34 does anyone else want to speak to the 10:35 fragile situation in armenia right now 10:40 well uh the latest developments 10:44 in armenia are no different than the 10:48 developments in the eastern 10:49 mediterranean and you have 10:51 one common actor who is 10:54 instigating and destabilizing uh the 10:57 areas 10:58 uh turkey finds itself in a very very 11:02 unique situation basically isolated 11:06 uh by everybody and uh creating 11:09 uh problems uh even within 11:13 uh the so-called alliances that they 11:16 tried to build uh namely russia 11:19 uh and brad uh pointed out that 11:22 uh the new term of uh 11:26 uh greek and enemy i mean uh friends and 11:28 enemies 11:29 at the same time it’s uh it’s very 11:32 suitable 11:33 um russia 11:36 uh in a sense in my opinion is 11:39 using turkey for economic 11:44 and financial purposes and that’s what 11:46 it stops 11:47 other than the sales of weapons to 11:50 turkey we don’t see any other 11:52 cooperation 11:53 either in syria or in libya 11:56 or now in in armenia 12:00 and the threat of turkey to close the 12:02 straits 12:03 i think is gonna it’s gonna explode in 12:06 their face 12:09 turkey uh is uh provoking the situation 12:12 in the eastern mediterranean 12:14 uh they have come very close uh 12:17 uh to starting a war with uh greece 12:20 but that wouldn’t uh only be limited to 12:24 a war between uh 12:27 greece and uh and turkey but most 12:29 probably egypt 12:30 israel cyprus france would be 12:33 participating 12:35 so it remains to be seen as to how much 12:38 a turkey is willing to push the envelope 12:43 because by stretching the rope 12:46 it’s a matter of time before it breaks 12:48 and 12:50 and we might see some uh some uh drastic 12:54 uh developments and some drastic changes 12:59 uh within turkey don’t forget turkey 13:02 uh is aligned itself with saraj 13:06 in libya who is probably going to be 13:09 stepping down in the next couple of days 13:13 you have a kurdish 13:16 issue around turkey in 13:20 iran uh iraq and syria 13:23 and probably over 20 million uh kurds in 13:26 turkey without 13:27 basic human rights so um 13:30 i think we should be watching very 13:31 carefully because 13:33 i believe this thing is going to come to 13:37 some kind of climax very very soon 13:43 dr wittershoven what is the importance 13:45 of turkey threatening to close the 13:46 bosphorus 13:47 do you think that eragon would actually 13:49 do this and what do you believe putin’s 13:51 response would be 13:54 how long do you have there 13:57 no um it’s it’s it is 14:01 the ultimate stretch that 14:04 ankara could make to 14:10 vladimir however 14:13 i i 14:17 think while looking at rap turkey is 14:21 engaged 14:24 right now so in the east met in 14:27 libya 14:34 i think for um as a 14:37 former military 14:41 analyst i would say he is 14:44 not at this moment willing to 14:47 overstretch his 14:48 military options so um 14:51 to block this 14:55 trades it would be extremely 14:59 pesky um think 15:02 also about the impact that 15:07 um shirks even if they’re anti-aging 15:13 shirks have been laid at least 15:17 educated in a turkish nationalistic way 15:21 so either 15:25 if we hope that there will be an 15:28 internal 15:30 revolt against what argonne at this 15:33 moment is 15:34 doing i think we are over estimating the 15:39 the willingness and the knowledge inside 15:42 of 15:42 turkey about what is going on 15:46 aragon is at this moment using the old 15:52 strategy when things 15:54 inside of your own country are not going 15:58 the way that you 15:59 are hoping it would go 16:02 then you try to get your people 16:05 your turkish nationals to think that 16:10 turkey is surrounded by enemies and that 16:14 they are 16:15 at this moment uh willing to 16:19 remove whatever erdogan 16:22 says well um 16:25 it’s it’s going to be a very tricky 16:29 situation yeah because turkish economy 16:34 is 16:34 extremely down turkish lira is 16:37 going down by the day investments into 16:42 turkey have almost dropped to 16:46 levels of the 1980s 16:49 um turkey has an 16:52 internal problem and it’s now trying to 16:55 propone there is an 16:56 external factor that is causing the 17:00 internal 17:02 problem so that’s why you right now 17:07 see that ankara is willing to threaten 17:11 is willing to act up till a certain 17:15 headline but it’s not yet 17:18 not yet stepping over the headline that 17:21 would mean 17:22 it’s going to be an all all-out 17:26 war the issue is 17:29 russia um keep 17:32 in mind that the turks who were the 17:35 largest were a huge 17:39 russian energy importer 17:43 have been dropping their energy impulse 17:45 from 17:46 russia this is not liked by 17:50 russia so russia is now 17:53 also some analysts say 17:57 is trying to let 18:00 turkey feel russia is not happy 18:03 do not think that russia is going to let 18:07 turkey do whatever they want to do but 18:11 i think vladimir still smiling behind 18:15 closed doors 18:16 if turkey is angry at europe or turkey 18:19 is angry with 18:21 washington because that likes that is 18:24 like it undermines the european 18:28 union yeah because you get now 18:31 from italy against germany 18:35 and the rest you get in nato you get 18:39 nato turkey against nato greece 18:43 um vladimir is happy 18:46 and what is happening in armenia you 18:49 even could say 18:50 maybe russia is trying out how good the 18:54 turkish drones are are they 18:57 rather than russian uh 19:00 and anti-air 19:03 systems or are the turks bluffing 19:06 and the russian systems are better it’s 19:10 fighting by proxy i 19:15 do agree i don’t think at this moment 19:19 you will see 19:19 a turkish army 19:23 gonna fight the russian army we know 19:25 that 19:26 is to both of them 19:29 not to their advantage instability 19:33 and the caucuses has also an advantage 19:36 for 19:38 oil and gas prices will go up 19:41 yeah okay 19:44 mr johnson would you like to add to that 19:46 question do you think eragon would 19:48 actually close the boss first and what 19:49 would putin’s response be 19:53 well i think erdogan is a along the way 19:56 learned lessons i mean i 19:57 he started out as essentially a soccer 20:00 star that’s where he 20:01 got claimed to fame and was elected to a 20:03 radical party in 20:04 turkey early on and learned a lot of 20:06 valuable lessons there because he was 20:08 forced out of politics so his upbringing 20:12 has taught him a great deal of 20:13 pragmatism so 20:14 the answer to the question is he’ll do 20:16 it if he can get away with it 20:19 but i don’t see circumstances under 20:21 which he could get away with it uh the 20:22 very first thing that would happen if 20:24 he tried to close the boss for us is 20:27 that russia 20:27 would sail through it and if fired upon 20:30 they would respond 20:31 and uh certainly i agree with everyone 20:33 that that 20:34 turkey is not prepared to take on russia 20:37 in a full-scale war between those two 20:39 countries 20:39 they have a they have a massive standing 20:42 army but 20:44 their air force and navy which would be 20:46 very important part of a war of that 20:48 nature uh just aren’t up to the task 20:50 period i mean they they couldn’t compete 20:52 so uh i i don’t see him 20:55 actually trying to do that he’s 20:58 erdogan is going to be very pragmatic 21:00 about all of this 21:02 i think he’s very dedicated to the idea 21:05 of expanding into a neo-ottoman empire i 21:09 believe that he 21:10 actually in his very center of his being 21:13 believes that that is his 21:15 god-given right and that he uh 21:18 is is only trying to act out the will of 21:21 allah from his perspective 21:23 and uh so he’s he’s going to do 21:24 everything he can do to make that happen 21:26 now 21:27 uh there’s that’s not an easy path to 21:30 take i think a lot of people 21:32 recognize that he has that ambition 21:35 especially the closer you are to turkey 21:37 the more you recognize 21:38 that that’s what he’s up to and uh his 21:41 power 21:42 inside turkey while he’s having a lot of 21:44 economic problems and he’s having some 21:46 political problems 21:47 his power is still absolute he took 21:50 advantage of the 21:51 so-called attempted revolution in 2017 21:55 that 21:57 that he blamed on some outside forces 22:00 uh to consolidate power and he 22:03 let’s not forget he fired like 200 000 22:06 people in turkey 22:07 many of whom are still political 22:09 prisoners sitting in jail 22:10 and he put in all of his own people and 22:12 that’s at every level 22:14 judges police military everybody so the 22:17 entire government 22:18 apparatus is under erdogan’s direct 22:21 control 22:22 and that’s insurmountable 22:26 for any sort of domestic opposition to 22:29 try and rise up against all of that it’s 22:31 just not 22:32 not practical any sort of situation of 22:35 that nature 22:36 that would be a threat to erdogan is 22:37 going to have to come from the outside 22:39 and i don’t see something like that 22:40 happening anytime soon so 22:43 erdogan is always going to do what’s 22:45 practical that’s how he was brought up 22:46 that’s how he’s going to respond to 22:48 these situations he knows he can do 22:50 much of what he wants in libya and is 22:52 doing it there are elements that 22:54 limit him uh in armenia there’s fewer 22:56 elements that limit him so he’s doing 22:57 what he wants there 22:58 uh syria he’s getting away with whatever 23:02 pretty much he wants and that’s in 23:03 certain 23:04 areas along the turkish border uh where 23:06 he essentially uh 23:08 uh conquered a swath of land that’s up 23:10 against the syrian border and has 23:12 put in his own people so all of these 23:14 things that you’ll note have a common 23:16 theme and that’s the 23:17 pragmatism that’s behind them his goal 23:20 remains the same 23:21 but he’s only going to go as far as he 23:22 thinks he can actually practically get 23:24 away with 23:27 savas senator ron johnson has been 23:29 involved in talks 23:30 concerning moving the u.s air force base 23:33 in philic 23:34 from turkey to greece you see this 23:36 happening and why is that significant 23:41 well um i i believe we’re coming 23:44 closer and closer to that uh to that 23:48 event in my humble opinion 23:51 some of us have been advocating 23:55 that the united states shouldn’t be held 23:57 hostage 23:58 having the military base there 24:02 and also the nuclear weapons and we have 24:05 seen the behavior of turkey on previous 24:07 events uh where the base 24:10 basically was off limits to the united 24:14 states 24:14 uh we have seen it at the latest uh two 24:17 years ago three years ago 24:19 when the so-called attempted coup took 24:22 place 24:24 uh the base was shut down by turkey with 24:26 uh 24:27 basically no access to the usa that owns 24:31 the base and they have started 24:35 uh now for a couple of years 24:39 moving some of the operations out of the 24:42 of the base and i think the ultimate 24:45 move 24:46 will be to relocate the entire uh 24:48 operation 24:49 because uh erdogan um even though 24:52 uh uh mr johnson uh described it as 24:56 pragmatist approach um 25:01 being that it’s a greek world i don’t 25:04 see 25:04 any pragmatism uh to his approach 25:08 uh so he 25:12 keeps isolating himself and 25:14 unfortunately he’s creating 25:16 a situation where turkey 25:19 is going to have to take some action uh 25:22 they are good in pushing the envelope as 25:24 i said earlier and we have seen it with 25:26 the refugees 25:27 at the border of greece 25:30 we have seen it lately in the aegean 25:35 where two military 25:38 brigades collided we have seen it in 25:42 egypt we have seen it in libya we have 25:45 seen it in syria 25:47 they keep pushing and they are keep 25:49 threatening 25:50 and having so many problems domestically 25:53 he’s gonna need 25:55 something outside uh turkey to divert 25:58 the attention 26:00 i don’t know uh if it’s gonna be to his 26:02 benefit 26:03 but coming back to uh uh to the 26:06 relocation 26:07 of the base uh we have the visit 26:11 of the foreign minister or the secretary 26:14 of state of the united states 26:16 uh i believe tomorrow i lost track of 26:20 the dates uh 26:24 i think it’s fair now uh if i’m not 26:26 mistaken 26:27 uh and tech is not uh too happy about it 26:30 uh we have seen statements 26:32 coming out of turkey and erdogan uh that 26:35 the united states uh is not being 26:37 neutral 26:39 and that’s uh that’s uh no good 26:43 but i think the united states has made 26:45 it very clear 26:46 and is giving a strong message uh 26:49 visiting 26:50 cyprus a couple of weeks ago uh 26:53 uh lifting embargo against cyprus and 26:56 now 26:57 not only having high-level talks in 26:59 greece but uh making a point 27:01 uh to visit suda bay in crete 27:04 where uh rumors have it 27:07 that it will be the new location or at 27:10 least 27:11 a location for uh some or most of the 27:14 operations coming out of 27:16 the base in turkey right now so i i 27:19 think the united states policy in the 27:21 eastern mediterranean has refocused 27:24 uh it started two three years ago 27:28 with the election of donald trump and 27:31 under the leadership 27:32 secretary of state wes mitchell uh 27:36 has come a long way and has established 27:39 the pillars of and the partners 27:42 of this new policy being israel 27:46 cyprus uh greece 27:49 and as the fourth member uh being egypt 27:53 so uh i i think 27:56 we’re gonna see some events unfolding 27:59 very very quickly 28:00 in the very near future that is my 28:04 that is my perception at least and 28:08 the more turkey acts 28:11 in such a responsible way uh the more 28:15 ammunition uh 28:16 it gives to washington uh to refocus 28:19 and re-evaluate uh the american foreign 28:22 policy 28:23 uh vis-a-vis turkey does anybody else 28:27 want to speak to the move 28:28 of incirlik um um 28:31 yes i would have a comment 28:34 okay go ahead brad uh 28:38 i think it’s the the the moving of the 28:40 of the 28:41 air force base in turkey uh is 28:43 extraordinarily interesting 28:44 i think that this is something that’s 28:46 been played out by the trump 28:48 administration 28:48 ron senator ron johnson who publicly 28:51 came out and said that it was under 28:53 consideration 28:54 to move the u.s air force base out of 28:57 turkey into greece 28:58 was very significant i think trump 29:01 trying to play 29:02 this as well as he could politically is 29:05 using 29:06 uh senator johnson’s office to make the 29:09 threat while he kind of stands back 29:11 trying to hold open 29:12 a way to negotiate with president 29:14 turkish president erdogan 29:16 uh i think that has very little chance 29:18 by the way i i don’t think president 29:20 erdogan is going to 29:22 negotiate in a in a manner that would 29:24 that’s going to really change 29:26 his course uh but the very interesting 29:28 thing about a day 29:30 after that what leaked out of the press 29:32 coming out of this 29:33 to the press coming out of the senate 29:35 was that not only was the united states 29:37 considering moving the base out of 29:39 turkey and into greece 29:41 but they were considering moving it to 29:43 cyprus 29:44 now if that indeed were true now i think 29:47 it was 29:47 leaked on purpose as a particularly 29:51 pointed 29:52 maybe not threat but but kind of a 29:54 threat to turkey 29:55 i mean putting that u.s military base 29:58 that air force it’s a combined base but 30:00 the air force base 30:01 uh on cyprus would be absolutely just 30:04 you know stabbing president erdogan in 30:06 the eye with a stick 30:08 so uh i think that’s a particular 30:10 poignant threat to all of this 30:12 and i think erdogan was he hasn’t 30:15 responded publicly 30:16 uh you know he’s saying general this is 30:19 negative sort of stuff but he hasn’t 30:21 upped the ante yet which is typical of 30:24 his behavior 30:25 so i think that surprised him a great 30:27 deal and he was very taken aback by the 30:29 possibility 30:30 that that that that base could end up on 30:33 cyprus so 30:35 it’ll be interesting to see how he how 30:36 he fights back and pushes back against 30:39 that 30:39 particular aspect but like i said so far 30:42 i think president trump 30:44 wants to negotiate with erdogan wants to 30:46 back away 30:47 from this ramping up of the problems in 30:50 the area as i said 30:51 i don’t see that really having a lot of 30:54 chance the germans 30:55 have been in trying to negotiate with 30:57 these problems with the greek waters now 30:59 for a while 30:59 and they’re having no success because as 31:01 i mentioned earlier on i think 31:03 truthfully 31:04 in his heart president erdogan believes 31:07 it’s his right 31:08 and his destiny to take these lands 31:11 around turkey 31:12 back that were once under ottoman empire 31:14 control and so that’s the path he’s on i 31:16 don’t 31:17 other than by force i just don’t see how 31:20 you can 31:21 change his plan unless somehow he is 31:24 taken removed from office which could 31:25 only be 31:26 first i don’t think he would leave 31:28 willingly under any circumstances 31:30 and uh if i cannot uh uh to what mr 31:34 johnson said 31:35 uh erdogan uh has repeatedly uh 31:39 said and many of his proxies have done 31:41 so as well 31:42 that he wants to renegotiate the treaty 31:45 of lausanne 31:46 which established the current borders 31:50 and everything else 31:51 so it goes beyond that i mean it is very 31:55 clear 31:56 and very alarming at the same time that 31:59 his 32:00 neo-ottomanism 32:04 has everybody up in arms not only 32:07 greece and cyprus and israel but also 32:10 most of the arab world 32:12 mind you and the latest uh the latest 32:15 agreements 32:16 uh between bahrain uh 32:19 the united arab emirates uh the deal 32:22 between kosovo and serbia 32:24 don’t believe in a moment that these 32:28 uh agreements are not related uh to 32:31 uh what turkey is doing and what turkey 32:35 is uh is uh uh tried to establish 32:39 so i believe these are very calculated 32:42 uh 32:44 moves i give the administration a lot of 32:47 credit 32:47 uh for having been able to broker 32:51 such a significant agreement uh between 32:54 uh 32:56 these countries it is a very 32:58 unconventional way 33:00 to solve the middle east problem but i 33:02 think 33:03 you need to think outside the box in 33:06 order to 33:07 solve a long-standing problem such as 33:09 this one 33:10 and i think the trump administration is 33:12 doing it in such a way that 33:15 you can’t even believe it uh but very 33:17 soon we’re going to see 33:19 other countries joining and signing 33:21 agreements with 33:22 israel and of course the the the prime 33:25 minister of all is going to be the 33:26 agreement between uh 33:28 saudi arabia and israel by doing so 33:31 uh basically you you are neutralizing 33:35 the arab world and 33:38 at some point they’re gonna be forced uh 33:41 to 33:41 uh uh take a moment to smell the roses 33:45 and realize the new developments and i 33:47 think these are so significant that uh 33:50 and due to uh the politicized uh 33:54 climate we have in the united states not 33:56 much uh attention 33:57 has been focused on it for obvious 33:59 reasons uh 34:01 but uh nevertheless uh it remains one of 34:03 the most significant 34:05 developments in the last 25 years when 34:07 it comes 34:08 to the middle east dr witterscheven did 34:11 you want to add to this discussion 34:13 yes yes 34:18 i do 34:20 a agree that that um the 34:23 arab sr ali issue 34:27 is changing um i also 34:31 do agree that 34:34 washington has been um setting up a 34:41 positive ground on which the 34:44 israelis and the arabs were able to to 34:47 talk but i would not 34:49 over estimate the impact of let’s say 34:53 the 34:54 trump administration on the deals 34:57 between 34:58 bahrain the united arab emirates and 35:01 israel 35:02 um they have been and they were already 35:06 since years 35:08 shocking um 35:12 netanyahu mohammed bin zayed and even 35:16 mohammed bin salman the conference of 35:20 saudi 35:22 have had their official and 35:25 unofficial lines that they were 35:28 talking to there were ongoing rumors of 35:32 saudi planes 35:33 landing in israel israelis 35:36 flying to saudi and the uae 35:40 um this has been going on and 35:43 if i would like to give some credit i 35:47 think the 35:48 credits um even that i do not 35:52 always agree with benjamin netanyahu but 35:56 netanyahu and mohammed bin zayed the 35:59 conference of abu have been able 36:04 to deal with issues without 36:07 going straight away into the issue of 36:12 palestine and gaza 36:16 the turkish encouragement as 36:19 i see it on the middle east 36:22 has been a major issue the turkish 36:27 deal with qatar uh 36:30 a turkish military base next to the 36:33 largest military base of the usa 36:37 um has been an issue the turkish 36:42 um medium 36:45 or perceived friendship with iran 36:49 has been a reason that people in 36:52 the emirates and israel and bakken 36:56 and even in saudi have been looking 36:59 at these issues and saying okay 37:03 maybe we need to deal now before 37:06 since really 37:12 has been playing an issue also but 37:16 keep in mind for the arabs 37:19 for the arab countries s 37:23 has a lot of advantages and then i’m 37:26 talking about high tech and high tech 37:29 can be for 37:30 commercial issues but also for defense 37:34 and purity and um 37:38 yes 80s are and that’s where people 37:42 sometimes do not even look at are very 37:44 good 37:45 in food production agriculture 37:48 and water and these are real 37:51 issues so there was a 37:55 win-win-win-win-win situation that 38:00 has been supported by the position taken 38:04 by 38:05 washington i 38:08 still feel at heart to believe that 38:11 jared 38:12 kushner was able to broker a deal 38:15 between the 38:17 emirati and the israelis if both sides 38:20 did not even 38:21 thought about it um 38:24 saudi saudi will be one of the last that 38:28 will be 38:28 officially officially 38:32 signing a deal keep in mind 38:35 where people do not because 38:39 most most media have a very short 38:43 memory already in 2017 38:48 uh during the future investment 38:52 initiative in riyadh non-prince mohammed 38:55 bin salman was 38:56 stating then that he sees a 39:00 position of israel in the arab world 39:03 which was 39:04 a shock but was not as like that 39:08 things are going on and the position 39:10 that 39:11 ankara is having right now is only 39:14 supporting any potential 39:18 economic financial defense and 39:22 peace agreements between former 39:24 so-called 39:26 adversaries keep also 39:28 in mind there were a lot of israelis 39:31 already 39:32 in the arab world but they did not show 39:35 their 39:35 israeli passport but were 39:39 working including insecurity of certain 39:43 high-profile people in the arab world 39:48 the deal was brokered before it only was 39:52 able to 39:55 come out because they got the 39:59 additional support of donald 40:02 trump and also keep in mind 40:06 in 2016 40:09 world was not voting for donald trump 40:13 the majority of financing out of the 40:16 emirates 40:17 bahrain qatar and saudi 40:20 and egypt was for hillary for hillary 40:25 clinton because she was assessed as 40:27 being even 40:29 more hard than trump 40:32 against certain adversaries that they 40:35 were seeing 40:37 yeah things are more 40:41 diffused than sometimes in u.s 40:44 media is being shown 40:50 okay 41:00 we are talking it’s going to greece or 41:03 to cyprus 41:04 the ue i think has even openly 41:09 put it into the media that they would be 41:11 more than happy 41:13 to be the base of the u.s air force etc 41:17 if they would live 41:18 in challenge 41:23 congratulations so as i understand 41:26 well cereal 41:30 yes of course thank you very much yes i 41:32 understand well cyril said before that 41:34 the european the europe would be happy 41:36 if the 41:37 base will transfer in europe or soil 41:40 cereal 41:44 who’s that question too can you hear me 41:48 yeah yeah um i think that 41:54 looking at the position that the 41:56 european 41:57 countries are taking at this moment with 42:00 regards to 42:01 turkey um a growing amount of people 42:05 would not be 42:06 extremely unhappy if it would leave 42:10 in sterling because security-wise 42:13 you need to be able to be sure that you 42:17 can use it 42:18 if things are needed so 42:21 if it will go to greece 42:25 um or to cyprus okay 42:28 that’s that’s still very tricky of 42:31 course 42:32 but why not why not 42:35 we always talk about cyprus but 42:39 cyprus has all had a 42:43 huge foreign military base 42:47 next to uh lanaka 42:57 armor um are there so uh if 43:00 a smooth transition if they were to 43:02 decide to move 43:04 the operations in cyprus uh they are 43:07 using the sovereign 43:08 english spaces as we speak anyway so 43:11 that 43:11 that would be a very quick and a very 43:13 smooth uh 43:14 exactly and the the 43:18 french are also talking about 43:21 the best snapping up i think the best 43:23 choice is uh 43:27 the french also wants to wants to go 43:30 there 43:31 i think that the cyprus government 43:34 promised to provide a naval 43:37 not a base but let’s say place actually 43:39 not a base 43:40 yeah maybe every place for 43:43 a small place on the big port for the 43:48 ship warships of the french warships 43:51 i think that if this will happen the 43:53 best solution is to 43:55 go uh this this base to transfer to 43:58 larissa 44:00 because larissa is already has their 44:03 ability to 44:06 fight this kind of nuclear uh 44:10 uh nuclear equipments first of all 44:14 the second about the caucasus uh 44:17 comment about the capitals is that uh 44:19 the all people in armenia 44:22 now uh according with my latest 44:24 information 44:25 from armenia uh the whole people is in 44:28 high alert and also uh 44:32 some people armenians who live in greece 44:36 they already prepare to move there and 44:39 to go there for 44:40 for to fight for their country the 44:43 situation is very serious i know that in 44:45 the united states also there is a 44:47 there are a lot of armenian immigrants 44:50 and 44:52 of course we support the the rights 44:55 for the freedom and it’s an excuse 44:59 i can i cannot excuse the assad 45:02 from the side of azerbaijan however i 45:05 would like to 45:06 to add that russia 45:09 has always tried relations 45:13 with turkey and 45:16 we faced that we saw that uh 45:19 decades ago uh with uh 45:22 i i think that it was uh uh 45:25 again the base the the interleague base 45:29 i think or another base in turkey 45:31 was issue um 45:35 what was a huge issue during the 45:39 kennedy presidency and i think 45:42 i think that it was simultaneously with 45:44 a 45:50 crisis it was also um simultaneously 45:54 a crisis with a nuclear 45:57 us base in turkey so this is a 46:01 long story the turkey and 46:05 russia relations it’s a long story 46:10 and i believe that you russia used 46:13 turkey to 46:16 destabilize nato to destabilize uh 46:19 the mediterranean and of course the 46:22 european union 46:23 and middle east that’s all 46:27 mr johnson well turkey is threatening 46:30 places like greece and cyprus and with 46:32 the situation in armenia 46:34 there are already turkeys already 46:36 showing their future aspirations in 46:38 other countries 46:39 can you speak to what the turkish 46:41 military and pro-turkish partners 46:43 are doing in places like yemen libya and 46:46 syria 46:49 yes i mean i think it’s largely based 46:51 and this is something we’ve touched on a 46:53 little bit 46:54 but uh with the ambitions of 46:57 reestablishing a neo-ottoman empire it 47:00 has to be fueled and i mean very 47:02 literally in this particular case 47:04 they have to have the energy resources 47:06 to do it so if you 47:07 look at where they’re expanding there’s 47:10 always some kind of connection you can 47:12 say 47:12 uh all roads lead back to the energy 47:15 issues so i think what you’re seeing 47:17 as they’re trying to push out the 47:19 envelope as to where they have control 47:22 they’re pushing first in areas where uh 47:24 there are 47:25 there are energy resources because they 47:27 want to capitalize on that and take them 47:29 to themselves to then 47:31 expand further their efforts so uh 47:34 certainly libya is that syria uh perhaps 47:37 to a lesser degree 47:39 but uh uh azerbaijan has oil and uh 47:42 so they’re they’re invested there and 47:45 are closely allied of course the 47:46 azerbaijanis are essentially a turkish 47:48 people 47:49 by bloodline and everything anyway so it 47:52 is a natural relationship 47:54 uh libby of course is not uh there’s 47:56 that that sort of natural relationship 47:58 isn’t as strong with them but 48:00 i think that’s the common theme and 48:02 where you where you can look at what 48:03 they’re doing 48:05 their interest in greece is uh related 48:08 to being able to draw 48:10 a drill for oil and gas in the seas 48:13 around the greek islands and 48:15 i think that’s just what you see over 48:17 and over and that’s the goal and the 48:18 reason they have that 48:19 goal of such a strong motive is 48:22 is because they know they can’t continue 48:24 to expand without that 48:26 turkey itself does not have those 48:28 natural resources so they need it i 48:30 think 48:30 many people have been drawing parallels 48:32 between uh some of the aspects of world 48:34 war one and world war ii to the current 48:36 situation 48:37 and uh that’s one of the things i find 48:39 very similar to japan 48:40 japan was greatly motivated to go to war 48:43 to obtain the resources that it needed 48:46 as an island nation to continue its 48:48 expansion 48:49 and uh i think that that uh turkey today 48:52 finds itself in a 48:54 uh very similar situation in that sense 48:56 that 48:57 they need those resources so where i 48:59 would say what you 49:00 what you’re seeing is that policy play 49:03 itself 49:03 out on on the world stage 49:09 all the major shifts in the region are 49:10 bringing awareness to the possibility 49:12 that nato is facing significant changes 49:15 or even possibly dissolving in the 49:17 future what changes do you see coming to 49:20 nato 49:21 and will we see alliances like the new 49:23 peace agreements 49:24 and president macron’s suggestion of a 49:26 pax mediterranean 49:28 replacing nato 49:31 well i’m one of those who believe that 49:34 the establishment 49:35 the establishment of nato uh following 49:37 world war 49:38 ii uh is much different than 49:41 today’s uh today’s world we have seen 49:45 that many of the countries that belong 49:48 to nato 49:48 don’t necessarily meet up the criteria 49:54 and the latest developments really show 49:58 that nato is not as cohesive 50:01 as one would think you have a member of 50:05 nato 50:05 properly threatening its neighbors 50:08 another nato 50:10 member which that by itself 50:13 uh it’s a reason to believe that the 50:16 catholics of two nato allies would break 50:19 up the alliance 50:20 uh in a second um 50:25 now i think it would be more significant 50:28 uh to have the pax mediterranean as 50:32 the french president uh called it 50:36 which is more specific to the area 50:40 and such 50:43 an alliance will establish and also 50:46 safeguard 50:47 the peace and stability in the area and 50:50 also 50:51 a new class forum made up of four 50:55 countries including 50:59 israel egypt cyprus greece 51:05 the palestinian authority italy and 51:07 france 51:08 sends a very very strong message 51:11 i believe nato for all purposes 51:15 is outdated it needs to be reformed 51:19 and it needs to make them just 51:23 to coincide with today’s 51:26 realities turkey is 51:30 constantly presenting a huge problem for 51:33 the allowance 51:34 for the alliance and i believe 51:37 the new developments and the new 51:39 agreements in the area 51:41 definitely will have a significant 51:46 effect on the alliance and if uh 51:50 if uh 51:54 if the new alliance is established under 51:57 the leadership of france 51:58 minou a very strong uh nato 52:02 ally uh will in essence 52:05 uh fraction uh 52:09 nato but uh in my in my work 52:13 because it’s still in principle within 52:16 that framework but france is taking 52:19 a very very aggressive role in the area 52:23 for their own interest mind you 52:26 nevertheless they have come out very 52:30 strongly 52:31 for greece and cyprus they have signed 52:34 significant military agreements 52:38 and they have openly stated that they 52:41 will come to the rescue of britain 52:43 cyprus 52:44 in the event that turkey attacks 52:47 so these are no small 52:50 announcements and these are no small 52:52 developments 52:54 i think we are experiencing a new 52:57 uh i would call it a new order 53:01 uh in that part of the world that uh 53:04 threatens 53:05 to destabilize the entire 53:08 uh area and uh 53:12 if it wasn’t for uh uh germany’s 53:16 suspicious role uh 53:19 in essence protecting their own 53:21 interests and supporting uh turkey day 53:23 in day out 53:25 uh the developments will have taken 53:27 place already 53:30 does anyone else want to speak to the 53:31 changes coming to nato 53:33 and the new alliance is being formed 53:39 um yes um i 53:44 i’m an um 53:49 as you will say i’m an athleticist 53:53 because that’s how i grew up and was 53:58 educated um so i’m 54:02 un happy to see that 54:05 one of the most stabilizing 54:09 organizations in the world even 54:12 more now that much more 54:15 than the un um 54:19 is under pressure because of one 54:22 single leader 54:25 and it’s it’s its views on the world 54:29 um turkey’s 54:32 position should not mean that we 54:36 are ending let’s say 54:39 nato as we know maybe we should 54:44 reorganize or reassess the position that 54:47 turkey has and the changing 54:51 global organical 54:54 scene because turkey’s polarization 54:58 and nato was strong because 55:01 it was the largest semi-european 55:06 based military force that was bordering 55:09 the soviet 55:12 union well this situation when you look 55:15 at the map 55:16 is not anymore the 55:19 reality turkey is yes 55:22 it’s still next to russia but it’s not 55:26 anymore 55:26 extremely the main 55:30 stumble block for us soviet 55:34 army going into anyway 55:38 where i’m happy 55:42 and that’s where i have been 55:46 writing on now for three years east 55:50 match should not be looked upon as 55:54 nato is match it’s its own region and a 55:58 box is met or a box 56:07 should be the second 56:10 phase of at all that it was mentioned 56:14 the 56:14 eastman med gas forum which was 56:17 officially 56:19 announced as an international 56:21 organization 56:23 last week um a 56:26 security organization dealing with 56:29 issues in the mediterranean 56:32 is a major issue this is not 56:35 not and i need to emphasize that this 56:39 should not always include american 56:42 support of american interference because 56:45 that 56:45 is not helping we have seen it whenever 56:50 the east mad gas reform was trying to 56:54 step further in what they were 56:56 discussing 56:58 we got in my european 57:02 review an interference from washington 57:05 because 57:06 suddenly the us was proposing supporting 57:10 or 57:10 forcing through 57:14 gas deals to greece to cyprus or to 57:17 whatever 57:18 which was not helping the regional 57:22 coordinational regional integration 57:26 and regional setup of a system 57:29 that can stabilize the region 57:32 what france now is doing i’m 57:37 98 behind because i still 57:41 need to see that macro will put 57:44 his deeds where his 57:48 words are will france honestly 57:51 and actively interfere if there is a 57:54 real clash between 57:56 turkey and greece or turkey and 57:59 egypt um we have seen 58:03 france and italy 58:06 do not forget italy 58:10 try to become a major geopolitical and 58:13 military player 58:14 in the region up to now the success 58:18 of both strategies has been extremely 58:21 high 58:23 and i’m not going to say that they are 58:25 not 58:26 willing but it’s not that easy you are 58:29 looking from a western european 58:33 point of view into an eastern european 58:37 and arab 58:40 situation in which 58:43 not always military issues military 58:46 strategy 58:47 military security and economic interest 58:50 are playing for the same goal 58:54 so where the fox 58:58 made the rhenia 59:01 according to me should be set up from is 59:06 not from france 59:07 it could be set up by greece israel 59:10 cyprus and egypt without 59:14 them integrating whatever they need to 59:17 integrate and that’s including economic 59:21 and financial systems 59:24 it becomes still a weak um 59:29 addendum to a nato or what 59:33 some people even say and i do not give 59:36 us that 59:36 a new kind of new colonialistic 59:40 view proponed by france and 59:44 italy east met which 59:48 includes libya needs to be dealt with 59:52 the main players that 59:53 are in that geography france and italy 59:58 are only able to assist 60:02 for the whole area 60:05 support from washington is helpful 60:08 but please do not interfere please do 60:11 not 60:12 think that whatever always is coming 60:15 from washington for 60:17 a certain region is most beneficial for 60:20 that 60:21 region also where 60:24 i would like to emphasize if the whole 60:28 issue is at this moment 60:31 related to oil and gas and i i can 60:34 give you hundreds of examples of 60:37 wars that officially were started 60:40 according 60:43 to the media because it was linked to 60:46 oil and gas at this moment no crisis in 60:50 the whole region 60:52 needs to be started because somebody 60:54 needs oil and 60:56 gas there’s more oil and gas on the 60:58 market 60:59 than there are clients if turkey wants 61:03 to have oil and gas it can go 61:05 on the market and it can get whatever it 61:09 uh 61:10 wants to have for the next 25 years 61:12 against 61:13 prices you would be dreaming of 61:17 last year the same for greece and egypt 61:20 etc 61:21 where maybe people are right 61:24 energy oil and gas is maybe the 61:28 destabilizing factor because at this 61:31 moment whatever 61:32 greece cyprus egypt israel are planning 61:37 are commercially not feasible 61:41 we are looking at projects that are at 61:44 this moment 61:45 and in 2021 up to 2025 61:49 not feasible at all no 61:52 commercial investor will invest in a 61:55 project 61:56 to connect cyprus to greece to europe 62:00 why q expensive 62:04 etc that opportunity 62:07 the region has 62:11 missed if we are trying to 62:14 use energy as a factor in the east met 62:17 is integrating the original 62:21 economies but that’s for after 25 62:24 so after 2025 62:28 what turkey now is doing 62:31 has no relationship to oil and gas 62:35 they can get more oil and gas than they 62:38 can ever 62:39 use it’s it’s just an 62:42 issue they are using it’s linked to 62:47 what has come out in 2014 2016 62:52 blue homeland i do agree 62:56 is some call it in new york 63:00 optimism i call it antagonism 63:03 it’s not ottomanism no turk is 63:06 interested in 63:07 osman nobody aragon is interested in 63:11 setting up a feasible 63:15 military political power 63:18 that needs maritime roots in the east 63:21 met 63:22 the oil and gas that’s no issue it’s 63:24 greek islands 63:25 it’s cyprus it’s egypt 63:29 it’s real geographical interests 63:32 are not related to serbia or croatia 63:36 or greece it’s the ottoman 63:39 turkish heartland the turks are not 63:42 coming from europe 63:43 the turks are coming from central 63:46 asia is met 63:49 it’s a geographical maritime issue 63:53 trade access for turkey for 63:56 everything if it’s not interested in 64:00 in a geographical lock-in 64:03 due to where it is it’s the east met it 64:06 needs to have open seas 64:09 and that contradicts with international 64:12 law 64:13 and whichever 64:18 if the region is able to set up a 64:22 structure 64:23 i even and do not misunderstand me 64:28 i would even say for eastmats 64:32 energy turkey is your main 64:36 client for eastman security 64:40 turkey is the main opponent 64:45 and to deal with both set 64:48 up and east met security for 64:53 or is okay we have it but okay 64:56 but done as an international 64:59 organization 65:01 not a nato not a western 65:05 european union because 65:08 that was a failure but organized it 65:11 first as east met 65:13 and used the assistance of france and 65:16 italy do not let them lead it 65:19 because then again you’re a follower 65:24 you’re not dealer 65:28 mr johnson would you like to add your 65:29 thoughts on all this including nato 65:33 yeah on the nato aspect there are some 65:35 interesting elements there at play 65:38 as everyone has pointed out certainly 65:40 turkey is is causing a lot of problems 65:42 between nato countries greece and turkey 65:44 directly of course 65:46 and one of the issues with nato and i 65:49 couldn’t agree more that it needs to 65:51 modernize a great deal the the 65:52 circumstances under which it came into 65:55 being 65:56 essentially the cold war have gone there 65:58 are similar problems 66:00 existing in certain areas but the 66:01 overall world situation is quite 66:03 different so there’s no question they 66:04 have to adjust 66:06 i think this turkey problem uh is 66:09 perhaps 66:10 something that’s going to give some 66:11 impetus to that but nato doesn’t even 66:14 have a way for example to 66:16 they don’t have the rules in place to 66:17 say vote turkey out or something like 66:20 that 66:20 both france and germany have talked 66:22 about this as an issue i don’t know if 66:24 they’re serious about it or merely using 66:26 it as it as a 66:28 negotiating tactic to put pressure on 66:30 turkey to sort of 66:31 comply and kind of pull back its horns a 66:34 bit uh 66:35 but one thing that has been left out of 66:37 the discussion so far 66:38 to the for the for the impact on all 66:40 this is the eu 66:41 and much of what france is saying to 66:44 justify their 66:45 support for greece for example is that 66:47 it’s a a member eu country turkey had 66:49 applied at one point but 66:51 uh because of their human rights records 66:52 and all these political prisoners 66:54 sitting in jail 66:55 uh they’re nowhere near it now the talks 66:57 have broken down so that’s 66:59 not even under consideration anymore uh 67:01 so the eu 67:02 is a very important factor on this and i 67:05 think that 67:06 is going to to perhaps play as a larger 67:09 factor than 67:10 even nato as to how the security in the 67:14 mediterranean region plays out 67:16 especially the eastern mediterranean 67:17 uh region uh and we’ve already seen a 67:20 lot more pressure on 67:22 uh eu than we have on nato we’ve had a 67:25 member 67:26 eu country vote to leave eu and that has 67:29 created some problems a lot of the 67:31 member 67:32 countries are in you know dire economic 67:34 straits 67:35 how this plays out i don’t know but i i 67:38 uh there you know there’s many things 67:39 that we could kind of predict 67:42 i think one of the problems with having 67:44 the eastern mediterranean 67:46 unto itself sort of uh arise with only 67:49 support from 67:50 eu countries and be on its own is you 67:53 need 67:54 the economic wherewithal to make that 67:56 work 67:57 and uh i just don’t think that exists 68:00 strictly within that region there’s 68:01 too many problems and conflicts and uh 68:04 you know past 68:05 wars that have impact so uh where that 68:07 leadership would come from where the 68:08 economic clout would come 68:10 from to put it together and make it work 68:12 i don’t know i’m not 68:13 predicting an outcome on that because i 68:15 just don’t know there are 68:17 so many forces at play and so many 68:19 people 68:20 urgently interested in their own uh you 68:23 know powers and money and so on 68:25 generally it’s power and money that 68:26 makes the world go around in these 68:28 circumstances and we see russia for 68:30 example i mean make no mistake gas prom 68:33 from russia is a weapon it’s always been 68:35 a weapon the way the soviet union was 68:37 organized from the very 68:38 beginning uh was so that all of the 68:40 satellite 68:41 soviet union countries were dependent on 68:44 uh on those resources coming out of 68:45 mother russia so 68:47 a gas problem has always been used that 68:49 way it’s been used 68:50 to aggressively take control of economic 68:55 uh resources and just for example since 68:57 we’ve been talking about armenia 68:59 much of armenia was bought up by gas 69:01 problem and it was because they weren’t 69:03 able to 69:03 pay the bills when it when the soviet 69:05 union broke apart they 69:06 had a lot of problems paying bills and 69:08 so gas prompt took a lot of things and 69:10 um so that country economically is very 69:13 dependent on russia so 69:15 that would be one of my you know 69:18 warnings to the area 69:20 on the energy thing personally i don’t 69:22 really have a dog in the fight don’t 69:23 care where the pipelines get laid 69:25 but i would say go for forward with this 69:27 with eyes open and be very cautious 69:29 because 69:30 a lot of players in that region russia 69:32 in particular 69:34 are weaponizing energy 69:37 and will gladly use that get people into 69:40 debt 69:41 and then use that to aggressively take 69:42 over economic resources 69:44 in lieu of payment where then they they 69:46 control your economy they have too much 69:48 interest and can 69:49 create too many problems so i think the 69:51 eu 69:52 is it in breakup is the uh you know 69:55 nato is it in breakup certainly there is 69:58 a crisis 69:59 uh forming with turkey on the other hand 70:02 economically it’s better off than it’s 70:04 been for many decades with the 70:06 pressure that president trump has put on 70:07 remember the member states to 70:09 pay in the amount that they’re obligated 70:11 to pay so there’s more money in nato 70:13 than ever before and some of the weapons 70:15 systems have come up 70:16 things are becoming more sophisticated 70:18 and the sharing of that 70:19 technology and weaponry is something 70:21 that’s that’s very very useful 70:23 so uh there’s a lot of of reasons why 70:27 member states of nato would want to 70:29 stay in nato can it keep that active and 70:32 evolve 70:33 with the changing world situation i 70:36 don’t know it’s it’s it’s a tough one to 70:37 predict and 70:38 i would say the eu is less better 70:40 positioned because of their 70:42 economic sharing system with the single 70:45 monetary system and all of that where 70:47 certain member states are just 70:49 economically and you know free fall 70:51 and others are in better shape that then 70:53 have to pay for those other countries so 70:54 that’s 70:55 that’s a real pressure and i think 70:56 that’s one of the motives why we saw 70:58 england decide to vote to withdraw from 71:01 eu so 71:02 i don’t think we can uh underestimate 71:05 the influence that these problems in eu 71:07 will also have 71:08 which just makes that whole problem more 71:10 complicated not less complicated i think 71:12 the future in that is going to be very 71:14 difficult to predict for a while 71:17 i would like to make sure that we get 71:19 onto matters concerning china 71:22 savas what is the significance of 71:24 china’s one belt 71:26 one road project in the region and is it 71:28 seen as a benefit to stability 71:30 or a recipe for disaster 71:36 well that’s a one million dollar 71:38 question uh 71:40 china trying to prevail 71:44 in the world they try to establish 71:46 themselves as the number one 71:48 economic power and i have to say that if 71:52 it was not 71:53 for the communist party uh running 71:56 china uh that would have become a 71:58 reality long time ago 72:00 nevertheless uh they are uh they are 72:03 working towards that 72:04 and they are doing it in such a way 72:07 where 72:08 they basically buy the most important 72:11 routes 72:12 around the world and they 72:15 buy the factories that produce the raw 72:17 materials 72:19 which drives their economy they have 72:22 been able to 72:23 extend in the eastern mediterranean 72:27 and their prime price of course is the 72:33 port of perez one of the most strategic 72:36 uh ports uh definitely in the 72:38 mediterranean but 72:39 probably in the world and it’s not only 72:43 that 72:45 that i have to tell you that raises a 72:47 lot of questions 72:48 with the usa and in discussions we had 72:51 with 72:52 cabinet members and elected officials 72:55 that remains a very alarming 72:59 subject and it’s been followed very 73:03 closely by 73:04 the united states so 73:07 for the chinese it seems to be working 73:10 for the time being 73:12 what the eventual outcome will be it 73:14 remains to be seen 73:15 but it is it is definitely a very 73:18 problematic 73:20 approach by the chinese rajin 73:23 uh trying to use the uh trojan horse 73:26 technique uh to basically 73:30 rupees and i have to say that they’re 73:33 doing 73:33 a terrific job in pursuing their own 73:36 interests 73:38 andreas would you like to add the matter 73:40 of china 73:48 i would like i would like to add 73:50 something about china 73:51 because in the latest information is 73:53 that the one belt one world project 73:56 has a financial collapse 74:00 the chinese flu comes back to 74:05 china returned back to china through the 74:08 financial way 74:09 through this one bill one road so 74:13 uh all the whole project is in the age 74:15 of collapse 74:16 the depth the depth is on the hands of 74:19 the government there 74:21 so the chinese trying to influence the 74:24 world and to dominate the world 74:26 through this project uh but 74:29 because of this collapse uh they 74:32 returned back the debt to the 74:33 governments 74:34 uh it’s a very critical situation i i 74:37 i will not uh i i will insist to say 74:40 that 74:43 the whole situation in the middle east 74:45 also affects 74:46 china and also the whole situation in 74:49 eurasia 74:50 affects china because it’s another 74:54 obstacle 74:55 any let’s say that 74:58 any fire in the region of the vitamin of 75:02 eurasia 75:03 is obstacle for the chinese 75:07 optimistic for the chinese projects 75:09 right let’s say the same in 75:11 kafka we face that in libya 75:14 we saw that in afghanistan 20 years ago 75:19 and in middle east in iraq and we also 75:23 uh we see that also in poland 75:26 now uh it’s it’s it’s difficult 75:30 for the chinese to pass these 75:34 obstacles so every obstacle 75:37 is uh in in the let’s say in the rimland 75:41 right in the ring around the eurasia 75:44 it’s a obstacle with the target 75:48 the target of this for this sort of 75:50 these obstacles is the chinese 75:52 is the china right this uh 75:56 this is my opinion and we will we will 75:59 see that 76:00 in the next years and i think 76:04 africa also it’s a 76:08 it will play a significant role 76:10 significant role 76:12 uh to that um 76:15 but i i will allow me to 76:18 to think about the uh just to 76:21 address some assessments at the end of 76:24 the 76:25 conversation uh for now what 76:28 that all what what i want to say about 76:30 the chinese 76:32 right 76:36 collapsed dr witterscheven do you want 76:40 to add about um 76:41 the matter of china in the region yes 76:46 um 76:50 if i’m is passing over 76:53 i i would love that your opinions 76:57 would read some more assessments that 77:00 are 77:00 coming out of the 77:04 usa uh the main 77:08 reason is that in 77:12 europe and in the arab world um 77:16 the understanding of the position of 77:19 obor one belt one vote or the new spell 77:22 code 77:24 um is looked upon as if it’s 77:27 not geopolitics but geo 77:30 economics so it means it’s it’s 77:34 an instrument that supports 77:39 globalization and the good of all 77:41 which if you look at 77:44 the outcome we have of over right now 77:48 is that the advantages 77:51 are more on the chinese side than on the 77:55 rest 77:55 of the world i’m not only 78:00 talking about as 78:03 um was it 78:07 stated energy was and is 78:11 used by russia as a weapon 78:14 obor can also be used as a weapon 78:18 because then 78:21 if you look at the geography of the 78:26 world and you project on 78:29 that map global trade flows 78:34 you see a huge threat flow going from 78:38 europe via the middle east to 78:42 asia up and out to 78:46 uh i know if you then look 78:51 at the investments that 78:55 china’s obor or selkrude has 78:58 done especially it’s in ports 79:02 and all of these sports wherever they 79:05 are 79:05 doing it are linked to 79:08 the trade flows between europe and china 79:12 so in a geoeconomical 79:16 assessment you would say that’s 79:20 normal because that’s 79:23 how we also were doing it 79:26 in the 16th 17th and 18th century 79:31 but also there it was not purely 79:35 economical because ownership or 79:39 access to international 79:42 ports means your navy 79:46 or your military or your security and 79:50 intelligence 79:51 forces have also access 79:54 and this is what in europe is still 79:58 not understood fully 80:01 the chinese ownership of pierre reyes 80:04 the access to 80:06 cyprus the right of landing of the 80:10 chinese 80:10 navy and the port of haifa the ownership 80:15 of 80:15 parts of the port of genoa 80:18 the proposed access to trieste 80:23 ownerships of parts of the port of 80:27 rotterdam are directly 80:31 directly linked to power projections and 80:35 i’m not 80:35 talking about economical power 80:38 projections 80:39 of the chinese 80:43 at the same time where you 80:46 look at new 80:49 port investment of the chinese they are 80:52 not 80:53 economically a part of for the chinese 80:56 and sudan or g booty 81:00 or somewhere else in the horn of africa 81:03 or 81:04 in sierra leone or wherever 81:07 there is no real commercial driver 81:10 behind that 81:11 there is no hinterland it’s just 81:14 again look at the geography it fits 81:18 exactly right into maritime 81:23 trade flows remarkably and also 81:27 somehow arabic countries are waking up 81:31 in this uber does not include the 81:34 world except egypt and egypt because 81:38 of the suez canal all 81:42 or most of the investment of china in 81:45 egypt 81:46 are surrounding the suvaskana 81:49 at the same time jib booty also but 81:53 no port developments in the uae 81:58 in bahrain in qatar and iraq 82:02 in saudi what they are 82:06 involved in pakistan 82:09 in sri lanka 82:14 if you again look why would 82:18 china own a port in syria 82:22 it’s not that china is going to earn a 82:26 multi-billion 82:28 margin in sri lanka no it blocks 82:32 navy and maritime movements 82:36 any maritime movement of the any 82:39 indian navy and any traffic 82:43 related to india um 82:48 the the financial 82:52 situation of obor is under russia 82:57 and that’s what i would say that’s the 83:01 government impact 83:06 people are waking up that we have been 83:09 having a globally is 83:12 station which had one single spider and 83:15 a spider web and the spider was sitting 83:18 in china every single 83:22 production project of europe 83:25 and the usa and the house of the world 83:28 rented 83:29 china we did not understand 83:32 obor is an issue but if something 83:35 happens in china 83:36 we are not getting our fridge or the 83:40 motif is going flat 83:45 all all our production in china 83:49 and then you have obor 83:52 we we have been caught in a spider 83:57 web and maybe we should start uh 84:04 approach also in geo 84:08 politics looking at normal military 84:11 strategy do not put all your forces and 84:14 assets in one 84:16 place because then the enemy bombs the 84:20 one place and you lose no spread 84:23 your power or your production 84:27 or your access to markets 84:30 to a wide range 84:33 of markets 84:36 produced not only in china okay 84:40 that’s trump thingy somehow 84:44 we are getting the same in europe 84:47 it’s called mega make europe 84:51 great again even that will uh will 84:54 take longer than america because not 84:59 everybody 85:00 agrees yeah germany but 85:06 the only thing that is going to hit 85:09 china also obor is when we are not 85:13 anymore 85:14 focusing everything on china 85:17 we also can bring things to india we can 85:20 bring things to 85:22 mexico if there is no wall um 85:25 we can bring things to egypt we can 85:28 bring 85:29 things to greece yeah 85:32 it’s it’s oberg 85:36 it’s chinese colonialistic 85:40 approach 2.0 you 85:44 take access to the maritime 85:48 trade route you are able to block 85:51 maritime 85:52 trade routes 86:02 you can block and x 86:08 correct what’s gonna happen erdogan is 86:11 gonna talk to china 86:14 because believe that the chinese would 86:17 love to have 86:18 access in turkey it could even block 86:22 russia because i do not believe in a 86:25 russian 86:25 chinese rapprochement 86:29 or military cooperation or 86:32 economic cooperation 86:35 russia the thinkers the strategics 86:38 are living in europe on the european 86:42 side 86:42 siberia is big etc it’s asia 86:46 nothing is in there yep 86:50 mr johnson china is a tough 86:54 situation 86:57 yes i think uh your initial question 86:59 began with the 87:00 belts and roads and i think that’s a 87:02 deeply significant point 87:04 i’d like to go back to and again 87:06 speaking of 87:07 of uh of techniques and uh being 87:10 weaponized i think that’s one of the 87:11 ones that has been heavily weaponized 87:13 by the chinese and uh 87:17 though that program if it were a u.s 87:20 program being run in the u.s would 87:22 actually be illegal 87:23 because it would come under the 87:25 predatory lending laws 87:27 and would be the guys would go to jail 87:29 who put it together 87:30 and what china has done they’ve been 87:31 very aggressive for a long time 87:34 we’re focusing largely on the 87:36 mediterranean region but that’s 87:37 something that’s been used 87:39 very aggressively in a lot of africa and 87:41 if you take a look 87:43 uh at the way that these programs are 87:46 set up they’re actually designed in such 87:49 a way where they bring in things that 87:51 are very useful 87:52 particularly ports there’s no question 87:54 that maritime is 87:55 very high on the list for china just as 87:58 a general subject 88:00 but also the the actual roads in 88:02 different areas that uh 88:04 that where infrastructure is being built 88:06 on these loans and programs that 88:08 china puts together but as i say if you 88:10 go in and dig through the details 88:12 it’s clear that these programs are set 88:15 up such in such a way 88:16 that many areas of this can never be 88:19 paid back 88:20 and that’s the predatory lending aspect 88:22 of them so they’re designed 88:24 such that it gives china eventual 88:26 control over a lot of these economic 88:29 uh powerhouse issues in those countries 88:32 maritime courts being just of particular 88:34 interest but airports as well 88:36 and uh let’s face it i mean china’s 88:39 goals and being in the economic 88:42 superpower 88:43 of the world are pretty clear we’ve seen 88:46 uh 88:47 out in the south china sea in the south 88:49 south pacific just how aggressive they 88:51 are 88:51 and in many in many ways and 88:53 intelligence 88:54 building islands that they’ve 88:55 militarized building landing strips on 88:57 them and things like that 88:58 and i would say from their perspective 89:02 they view this 89:02 uh as sort of a modern silk road if you 89:06 will 89:06 through the south china sea and maritime 89:09 uh 89:10 commerce and so they want absolute and 89:13 complete control of it something that’s 89:14 been well covered here by the doctor 89:17 and so i it does expand out into other 89:20 areas and we’ve seen them be 89:21 very aggressive in africa very 89:23 aggressive in latin america 89:25 very aggressive in the caribbean and of 89:27 course they use that to their advantage 89:28 politically as well to make 89:30 these countries be more suitable for 89:32 them to control influence and do 89:34 business with 89:35 and i would it’s a funny 89:38 level out of the caribbean but uh 89:40 there’s a barbados is a country that 89:42 was uh colonized by the british it still 89:44 has uh very long time 89:46 uh traditions and a close relationship 89:49 with england 89:50 and uh the queen of england is deeply 89:52 popular traditionally in 89:53 in that island country but they were 89:55 part of that belts and 89:56 a rhodes program now with china and 89:58 they’ve gained so much influence in such 89:59 a foothold 90:00 that they’re even uh politically it’s 90:03 going 90:03 they’re going through it right now in in 90:05 barbados that 90:06 saying that they no longer recognize the 90:09 queen 90:10 and so now they’re they’re they’re going 90:11 that’s you know part of the chinese 90:13 communist 90:14 uh political goals is to is to back them 90:16 away from that so that there’s no 90:18 monarch involved and of course that 90:20 leaves room then for the 90:22 chinese communist party to have far more 90:23 influence in the island country so 90:25 it’s one of those worldwide programs 90:27 that we’re seeing play out everywhere 90:28 again as i said weaponize one of those 90:30 things where the 90:32 predatory lending aspect of this is is 90:35 the weaponization of it 90:36 and it’s done in conjunction with all of 90:38 those aspects uh including 90:40 controlling the ports but also allowing 90:43 political influence 90:44 allowing chinese military influence 90:46 being able to 90:48 have free access to those ports but also 90:50 in something that’s almost never talked 90:52 about 90:53 is how aggressive they are in the 90:55 intelligence field i would 90:56 one little anecdote on that here in the 90:58 united states 91:00 you know the fbi about two years ago now 91:03 was ordered to start uh combating some 91:05 of these chinese intelligence inroads 91:06 that they’ve made 91:07 and we’ve had uh you know dozens of 91:10 arrests people already in jail 91:12 people uh connected to chinese 91:14 intelligence being sent home and there’s 91:16 just 91:16 dozens and dozens of these cases out 91:18 there now that the fbi has 91:20 scratched the dirt and started to look 91:21 for it we’re just seeing how aggressive 91:23 they’ve been 91:24 and we’ve seen that play out in many of 91:26 the uh 91:27 asian countries including australia 91:29 where there have been a lot of 91:30 high-level cases going on there where 91:32 chinese intelligence has just been 91:34 just stunningly busy and same with the 91:37 programs here in the united states it’s 91:39 incredible 91:40 just how comprehensive 91:43 chinese efforts are and even even trying 91:46 to create alternative economic 91:48 monetary programs to influence the world 91:51 economy 91:51 and i would point out to everyone 91:53 remember you know the largest 91:55 single producer of bitcoin is china 91:59 and why because it’s not an economic uh 92:02 it’s not the dollar that’s 92:03 can be controlled in many ways by the 92:05 united states where they can 92:06 do economic sanctions it’s outside of 92:09 that system so it can be independent 92:11 from it so they’re all in 92:12 and very busy across the board in an 92:14 absolutely 92:15 comprehensive fashion and the belts and 92:18 roads program is just one little aspect 92:20 of this 92:21 huge comprehensive worldwide program 92:23 that’s uh that’s effective 92:25 and dangerous okay 92:29 if i if i were to uh add something 92:34 on the discussion of china i believe 92:37 with the re-election uh for the possible 92:41 re-election 92:41 of trump uh you can expect 92:46 a major showdown between the united 92:48 states and 92:49 and china that is gonna change 92:54 a lot of things they are not fools they 92:57 know what’s going on 92:59 but as a result of the pandemic 93:03 we have seen here in the united states 93:06 that dependence on china 93:09 and what it could do to the american 93:12 the u.s economy with the announcements 93:16 of 93:17 of trump trying to basically bring back 93:22 everything from china and the u.s being 93:25 the number one client 93:26 of chinese you’re gonna have a shake-up 93:30 in the relationship and 93:32 and the basically is not gonna be 93:34 limited to the bilateral 93:36 relations between the u.s and china but 93:39 it’s going to 93:40 it’s going to extend to the surrogates 93:41 of the two countries 93:44 it is not being a notice that china is 93:46 trying to control the world 93:49 through the discussion the actions we 93:52 discussed 93:53 and they have as i said earlier they 93:55 have been doing a very very good job and 93:57 they tried to stay under 93:58 the radar but 94:01 i think there is a new look a fresh look 94:04 at their approach 94:05 because it’s endangering the 94:09 the order i would say i want to move on 94:12 to the peace agreements 94:13 as well what is the magnitude of actions 94:16 from places like kosovo and serbia 94:19 in the region and the movement of the 94:21 embassies to israel 94:22 are we seeing a trend developing and 94:24 what’s the significance of that trend 94:28 well uh one significant aspect of that 94:31 agreement 94:32 is that it prevents turkey 94:36 i don’t know in what extent but 94:38 definitely to move it to the balkans 94:41 kosovo has been one of their proxies for 94:44 many years and they have been supporting 94:46 them 94:47 and that’s why they are very very upset 94:50 that the deal went through to begin with 94:52 but to make it even worse uh the the 94:55 relocation 94:56 of the of their embassy to jerusalem 94:59 sends some very very strong messages 95:02 to turkey it has a direct 95:06 effects on the developments in the area 95:10 and definitely definitely puts 95:14 his countries uh on on a different 95:18 standing uh with the united states 95:22 i would agree with 95:25 the doctor that maybe some of these 95:29 some of these things were in the works 95:32 for years but it took a catalyst it took 95:35 someone to push it to become a reality 95:37 so we shouldn’t overlook that 95:39 and i we shouldn’t over exaggerate it 95:41 but at the same time we shouldn’t 95:43 we shouldn’t ignore it either 95:47 it took the leadership of the united 95:48 states to make it happen 95:50 it took the leadership of the united 95:51 states to bring coastal west serbia 95:53 together 95:54 it took the united states to push them 95:56 to relocate their embassy to 95:58 jerusalem that says a lot so 96:01 it seems that uh through these actions 96:04 america 96:04 even though being absent from the 96:06 eastern mediterranean in the area for a 96:08 long time and even when they were there 96:11 they left a disaster behind 96:12 let’s don’t forget uh what happened 96:16 uh in the region in 96:19 in libya there is no libya today 96:23 what happened in syria uh what happened 96:26 for a short time in egypt so 96:30 we can be very proud of some 96:33 american uh actions in the area in the 96:36 past 96:36 but it seems that there is a new focus 96:40 uh and these agreements and these 96:42 developments show 96:43 that the united states has decided not 96:46 to 96:46 not to be absent from the area even 96:49 though i will expect 96:51 a more significant participation in the 96:54 in the future 96:58 definitely in following the turkish 97:01 press on a daily basis i can tell you 97:04 that 97:04 the turkish government erdogan himself 97:08 and all of his allies 97:11 within turkey including the opposition 97:13 party have 97:15 condemned the agreements between bahrain 97:19 and the 97:21 united arab emirates and they have 97:23 condemned the agreement between 97:25 kosovo and serbia and they have 97:27 condemned their location of the embassy 97:30 uh to jerusalem so all these different 97:33 parts of the puzzle 97:34 are interrelated uh so 97:38 uh we will watch and see 97:41 how many more countries are gonna follow 97:43 uh i believe that uh 97:45 in the very near future you’re gonna 97:47 have for probably two or three more 97:49 and as i said earlier the biggest uh the 97:52 biggest price 97:52 is saudi arabia we’re just gonna 97:56 put the area on a new standing 98:01 so it would be quite interesting to 98:04 watch how everything 98:05 evolves and how uh since we 98:08 are based in the united 98:14 the players in the states and how the 98:17 american foreign policy 98:20 is being played out in the area i can’t 98:23 say that we have been successful in many 98:26 parts of the world we have miscalculated 98:29 and we have misjudged uh many situations 98:33 and we have gotten ourselves involved in 98:36 some bad situations 98:37 i hope we have become wiser 98:40 from the past and we can use the past as 98:43 a springboard 98:44 uh to the future um 98:47 so uh having said that i i think 98:51 uh definitely they are significant and 98:53 definitely 98:54 will reshape not change reshape 98:58 uh the future of the area 99:01 andreas would you like to add to that 99:08 yes i would like to add that uh i have 99:10 been in kosovo 99:11 and in balkan several times and i was 99:14 there for 99:16 months and many many months so i would 99:19 like to add that 99:21 behind of the kosovo it was 99:25 turkey and a lot of arab arab states 99:28 and we all know that behind of the 99:30 serbia was the russians 99:32 and some somewhere in the middle it was 99:35 in nature 99:36 all right now um 99:39 from the that’s why it’s so important 99:41 regia 99:42 right and this forum also from the 99:46 southeast china to the middle east into 99:49 the central 99:50 balkans of course if we were focused on 99:53 the kosovo in serbia 99:54 everything is changing in the caucasus 99:57 too 99:58 everything is changing and we 100:01 we observe that the the 100:04 last mounds and especially uh 100:08 after the during the administration the 100:11 trump administration 100:13 we we face these changes i mean in the 100:16 positive way 100:17 and i totally agree with savas in the 100:19 positive way 100:21 and so a lot of arab countries step back 100:25 in the case of kosovo the turkey stay 100:28 alone there 100:30 without the the without the backup of 100:32 the most 100:33 arab countries except the qatar of 100:35 course 100:36 and and serbia 100:39 he see he so so the the the 100:43 opportunity to fix a problem all right 100:46 and to think the 100:50 the future without the russia influence 100:53 something that the russians they don’t 100:54 they don’t want 100:56 and this is why my assessment about the 101:00 future in balkans 101:02 it’s a very let’s allow me to say dark 101:06 because there is a huge arsenal 101:10 always ready to to burn 101:13 to the ashes and it’s like a laboratory 101:17 who 101:18 big powers and play their 101:21 interest and play for the interests so 101:26 of course it’s a very positive and uh 101:29 keeps turkey out of this game and 101:32 changing the area and keep 101:33 also russia out of the balkans all right 101:36 however 101:38 in case that in case that the us 101:42 administration will change we will face 101:46 another allowed me to say that 101:50 it’s very possible another war in balkan 101:54 all right so this is 101:57 it’s not political statement but this is 101:59 an analysis 102:01 right we face that with under the 102:03 democrat democrats 102:04 democratic administration and 102:08 it’s very possible to to see that again 102:12 however so far uh 102:15 the peaceful balkans all right and and i 102:18 hope that this 102:19 will continue thank you something i want 102:22 to get 102:23 um your perspective on from all three of 102:26 you 102:26 is several analysts are talking about 102:29 being a pre-world war one 102:31 and world war ii setup um an axis setup 102:35 in the region 102:37 could you guys speak to that and i mean 102:39 we have different players obviously this 102:41 time but who 102:42 are those players 102:46 brad if you could start us 102:50 sure uh happy too i 102:53 i do see parallels personally between 102:56 there are elements of pre-world war one 102:58 and elements of pre-world war 103:00 ii uh and some of these we’ve already 103:02 commented on but 103:04 uh you do have say elements on one side 103:08 we haven’t talked about some of the 103:10 economic ties between 103:11 say china and turkey but they’ve already 103:14 signed 10 major economic agreements 103:16 between 103:17 china and turkey and billions of dollars 103:20 china has bailed out 103:22 turkey a couple of times so those those 103:24 economic ties already exist and the 103:27 relationship between china and turkey 103:28 are 103:29 are actually quite strong in a lot of 103:32 ways 103:33 and i think in many ways also they share 103:35 certain common goals 103:36 and common enemies so uh i think there 103:39 is a natural relationship there that you 103:41 could call 103:43 you know this is a very loose comparison 103:45 so you know forgive me 103:47 on on making it perhaps but you know you 103:49 could perhaps compare it to say the the 103:52 japan and and german world war ii 103:55 relationship where you had an axis form 103:57 around 103:58 kind of the two main members and others 104:00 italy and 104:01 other countries then joined in and i 104:03 think uh certainly there’s an argument 104:05 to be made that you could see something 104:07 like that forming say with 104:08 iran uh turkey 104:12 china forming the core particularly the 104:14 turkey and china forming a core of 104:16 of countries that have shared enemies 104:19 and goals 104:20 and and forming a relationship there 104:22 where they would be willing to go to war 104:23 with others to 104:24 accomplish these goals on the other side 104:26 of it something that’s been mentioned 104:28 already quite a little bit but this 104:30 gas club in arabic reporting that’s what 104:32 they’ve been calling it the gas club 104:33 that 104:34 people have mentioned for the 104:35 exploitation italy greece cyprus israel 104:37 palestinian authority egypt those 104:39 those countries are already kind of 104:40 joining together natural 104:42 other partners in this would be ones 104:44 that are say already being confronted 104:47 by china for example india india would 104:50 be a natural 104:51 ally for something like this especially 104:53 if it’s not 104:55 u.s centric i mean there is certain 104:58 areas even among allies in greece for 105:00 example and india 105:02 there’s a lot of anti-us sentiment among 105:05 the people at large 105:06 so you can see something like that 105:08 forming where the united states is kind 105:10 of on the side of all of this 105:12 and a lot of these problems as we’ve 105:13 kind of all touched on from different 105:15 aspects 105:16 the united states has not viewed this 105:19 eastern mediterranean and these issues 105:21 around this as a primary problem 105:23 and even like fighting back against 105:25 china that didn’t really even exist 105:27 uh up until president trump and then 105:29 only two years ago did the fbi even 105:31 start 105:32 looking at the chinese inroads and 105:34 intelligence issues so 105:35 the united states has a little bit 105:36 johnny come lately they’ve been uh 105:39 uh trump is willing to confront china 105:41 but then he’s very hands-off i think the 105:43 uh 105:44 my fellow panel members have all 105:46 mentioned the fact that the united 105:47 states has just basically 105:48 left syria for the most part and didn’t 105:51 really leave a policy in place they’ve 105:53 just backed off so 105:54 it’s like it’s a complicated situation 105:56 but it it looks like 105:58 you you you do have some 106:01 factions kind of siding together 106:04 to offset other factions who are in 106:06 general conflict in that sense 106:08 yes i find the comparisons to be kind of 106:12 kind of similar could this lead to world 106:13 war 106:15 yes i mean i don’t think we’re there yet 106:17 i don’t think it’s likely in the 106:19 short to medium term but uh who’s to say 106:22 what could happen over the next five 106:23 years if these conflicts grow 106:25 even a relatively small one like what’s 106:27 going on in our media 106:29 and uh and azerbaijan over the 106:31 nagorno-karabakh region 106:33 uh could that grow yes it could i mean 106:35 you have two major players in there 106:37 fighting now through their surrogates 106:38 and that’s russia and turkey so 106:41 uh and russian turkey let’s not forget 106:42 i’ve had three major conflicts through 106:44 history and some minor conflicts as well 106:46 so 106:47 these are guys that are not afraid to go 106:48 into shooting wars with each other 106:50 does it spin out of control doesn’t look 106:52 that way right now 106:54 but the elements are there where it 106:57 could 106:57 build to that sort of thing and so we’ll 107:00 see how all this plays out i wouldn’t 107:02 worry for 107:02 anything for this year or next perhaps 107:04 but the five to ten year 107:06 uh range i think we’re going to have a 107:08 lot better idea of just how dangerous 107:09 this is going to become 107:12 okay slavaz could you comment on that 107:18 yes uh i will agree with mr johnson 107:22 that even though uh not imminent 107:25 uh it’s a matter of time um 107:29 we see some of the dynamics uh 107:32 uh for world war one and and two uh 107:36 but there is a twist uh to today’s uh 107:38 development 107:40 uh if it were to be a spark 107:44 uh most probably caused by the 107:46 aggression of 107:48 turkey it would be very difficult 107:51 for someone to come to the aid of 107:55 turkey and who will 107:58 come to the aid of turkey possibly 108:02 there are three countries uh russia 108:05 china 108:05 and iran okay germany is questionable 108:10 why will russia come to the aid of 108:12 turkey 108:13 with the challenges we’re discussing 108:15 right now i think 108:17 russia would be looking to gain 108:20 uh against turkey in a potential 108:23 regional conflict 108:24 iran their rivals with turkey even 108:27 though they 108:28 they have some agreements but the same 108:31 thing will happen there 108:33 china in my opinion would be foolish to 108:36 get into 108:37 a global war uh in support of 108:40 a turkey with no tangible uh 108:45 advantages so uh and having 108:48 the two superpowers basically uh either 108:51 staying neutral 108:52 or deciding to take a side i don’t 108:56 believe that the united states would be 108:57 on the side of turkey this time around 109:00 uh unless things change in a dramatic 109:04 way 109:05 i think it would be uh limited to a 109:07 regional war 109:08 and as i said earlier is not if 109:12 it’s when it’s a matter of time uh 109:14 turkey 109:15 keeps pushing the envelope and either 109:18 through an accident 109:19 or unintended move 109:22 this is going to come to a head very 109:24 very quickly 109:27 there are some strong agreements in 109:29 place uh either through 109:30 uh the military agreement with uh france 109:34 or through the gas forum uh agreement 109:36 which 109:37 was recently instead institutionalized 109:40 uh which includes uh seven countries 109:45 so um i will watch it very carefully 109:49 i don’t think it’s gonna take five years 109:51 uh seriously uh 109:53 unless erdogan uh changes his whole 109:55 attitude 109:56 if erdogan manages to stay in power 109:59 in power which i uh highly doubt it 110:03 but i’m not uh optimistic that the next 110:06 one 110:08 is not going to be another orthogonal 110:10 it’s going to be the same philosophy and 110:12 we have seen it 110:15 so uh it’s a matter of time uh 110:18 uh that a conflict of 110:21 military 110:25 military conflict is going to happen 110:27 unless 110:28 of course russia and the united states 110:31 really decide to step in and 110:34 put turkey in its place by bidding 110:38 around the bush 110:39 by pacifying turkey i don’t believe they 110:42 have 110:42 helped turkey in any way they through 110:45 the 110:45 inactions especially of the united 110:48 states of the past years 110:50 have encouraged turkey uh to keep being 110:53 uh aggressive and pushing the envelope 110:57 and at some point uh you know something 111:00 is gonna happen 111:01 uh mr johnson said earlier that dertogan 111:04 uh would be pushing as much as 111:08 he can but ertagon is like a bully a 111:12 high school 111:12 bully until he’s confronted 111:16 he has tried to weaponize the refugees 111:21 at the border of greece uh bringing 111:23 thousands 111:24 in an organized marriage from costa 111:26 renewable he has done 111:28 he has tried to do it in their gym but 111:30 finally greece decided that this 111:32 is time to stand up and they did and i’m 111:34 glad they did for a change 111:36 uh and you saw the result uh 111:40 uh in the case of the refugees uh they 111:43 put them in buses and they took them 111:44 back where they brought them from 111:46 in the case of aegean even though they 111:48 uh they were threatening 111:50 finally they had to withdraw because 111:52 there was no one 111:54 uh that it was supporting them other 111:56 than the suspicious 111:57 uh germans so um we need to evaluate 112:01 these actions on a daily basis almost uh 112:04 hour by hour 112:05 not even uh on a daily basis 112:08 uh and we have we must watch very 112:11 carefully 112:12 uh to see the results of the of the 112:15 current uh 112:16 visit of the secretary of state mr 112:18 pompeo to greece 112:19 and what comes out of that and what 112:22 agreements might be 112:23 signed uh during his visit and 112:27 uh his most significant visit is going 112:30 to be 112:31 uh to go to the bay i don’t remember in 112:35 recent history 112:36 another secretary of state visiting suda 112:39 bay 112:40 so the united states has decided 112:43 to send some strong messages especially 112:46 to turkey and that’s why turkey is very 112:48 upset 112:49 so we remained on alert i believe 112:53 we shall remain on alert and evaluate 112:56 the outcome of all these discussions and 112:58 development 113:00 gentlemen we are hitting a time 113:02 constraint here 113:03 so if dr witter showed if you could uh 113:06 give us your closing statements 113:08 and um within that speak to the 113:12 you know matter we’re speaking to now if 113:14 you could keep it to about a minute or 113:16 two that’d be great 113:17 okay i’ll try um 113:22 first of all um yeah 113:26 the world and the geopolitical 113:31 situation is different than before world 113:34 war one and 113:34 world war ii um so i hope 113:38 that the multipolar 113:42 world we are ready now has 113:46 one f i think 113:49 that we will not have a 113:53 world wars to see and if there are 113:57 chances for the world war 113:59 three i would look at asia 114:03 first because china and india or china 114:09 south china sea 114:12 are more a precursor 114:16 for world war three than the east met 114:19 however um looking at what is 114:24 going on in um 114:28 turkey itself and 114:31 the region um do not underestimate the 114:35 danger that 114:36 the dog that is feeling 114:40 threatened can bite without 114:44 a warning and erdogan 114:47 is feeling threatened because 114:50 of the actions he is doing 114:54 but also part of the 114:57 the internal power 115:00 issues in turkey itself so 115:04 keep awake and do not 115:08 close your eyes too easily because 115:11 um there are a certain movements that 115:14 are 115:16 worrying however there are also 115:20 positive movements the israeli 115:24 arab issue um the overall counts are 115:28 promising and i would take another one 115:32 the fact of arrogance proactive 115:36 and aggressive moves have brought 115:40 to former political 115:43 enemies increasing israel together 115:46 because 115:47 what people maybe do not 115:50 anymore remember the word 115:53 decades that israel and these were not 115:57 heal friends 115:58 but these things have changed and i hope 116:01 that that’s going to be 116:02 to the best okay thank you dr whatever 116:07 savas could you give us your closing 116:08 statements 116:11 well a big thank you to you uh 116:14 for uh moderating today’s event again uh 116:17 congratulations andreas and 116:19 the paleologist chapter for an 116:21 outstanding job on behalf 116:23 of the entire i have a family i would 116:25 like to thank our viewers but also our 116:27 panelists for 116:30 today’s event it was very interesting 116:34 i believe we are we are experiencing 116:36 some unprecedented times 116:39 both around the world and here in the 116:41 united states 116:43 and there are some 116:46 very major and positive developments uh 116:49 in the eastern mediterranean that will 116:52 reshape the future of that area and will 116:55 help towards 116:56 peace and stability but 117:02 a lot of things can happen 117:05 you have someone that is constantly 117:07 provoking and through the provocation 117:10 you might have an unfortunate 117:13 accident that blow up the whole area 117:17 literally with consequences that nobody 117:21 can 117:22 imagine some say 117:26 that it might be a very short 117:30 military conflict that is not going to 117:33 be 117:33 expanded or extended 117:36 to other uh areas or other countries 117:41 but as mr johnson said before when you 117:43 have a conflict 117:45 a small conflict uh can trigger major 117:48 events 117:49 we have seen how the first war started 117:53 with the assassination of a of a priest 117:57 of a prince and the consequences 118:01 were tragic so it is 118:04 important that we review this event we 118:07 express our opinion 118:09 but at the same time it’s very important 118:11 that we follow the developments 118:12 in order to make a more intelligent 118:16 decision with that i thank you again and 118:19 it was an honor 118:20 to share today’s e-forum with such 118:23 distinguished panelists thank you savas 118:28 mr johnson if you could give us your 118:29 closing statements 118:31 and within that let us know some common 118:34 themes that we’re seeing 118:35 concerning access to energy resources 118:40 sure uh i uh i we’ve we’ve actually 118:44 touched on 118:45 but you know turkey’s kind of the 118:46 central theme here because they’re 118:48 uh in the scheme of things essentially 118:49 the grass are driving the situation if 118:52 you will 118:53 and we’ve discussed a a world war three 118:55 scenario 118:56 and uh touched on somewhat the far more 118:59 likely regional war of some sort or 119:01 another 119:02 and i i would uh go back to uh erdogan 119:05 as a man i mean i 119:06 i whether you love him or hate him i 119:08 don’t care 119:09 but i i think you all have to everyone 119:11 needs to recognize that he’s not an 119:13 idiot he’s not a stupid man he didn’t 119:16 come to power by being a fool he came to 119:18 power by being smart and aggressive 119:20 and rather ruthless and uh so with that 119:23 in mind 119:23 you know if if you can accept the fact 119:26 in my at least 119:27 that i would argue is fact that he wants 119:29 to re-establish 119:31 whatever you call it but a neo-ottoman 119:33 empire is just an easy term to 119:35 put on it but re-establish that sphere 119:37 of power around himself 119:39 i think we all recognize that cannot be 119:42 accomplished through treaties and 119:43 peaceful means 119:44 that can only be accomplished through 119:46 fighting so i would say that i 119:48 i do view a regional conflict of some 119:50 sort or another 119:52 uh to to be very likely not 100 119:55 perhaps but to be very likely and i 119:57 think we’re seeing the early stages of 119:59 that 119:59 and the libya and syria and the 120:01 azerbaijan 120:03 nagorno-karabakh region and those things 120:05 we’re seeing the early stages of what 120:07 appears to be building 120:08 as a conflict which is why i think that 120:11 erdogan is looking forward to that time 120:14 and why he wants to 120:15 capture and hold and maintain energy 120:17 resources for example 120:19 understanding that in periods of 120:20 conflict he would likely be cut off from 120:22 many of those resources so 120:24 he wants to control as much as he can 120:26 building to where he can have a larger 120:28 and larger conflict i think he’d be 120:29 stopped 120:30 before it got to the world war three 120:33 level 120:33 but uh you know those things remain to 120:35 be seen which is why i put that more 120:37 like five to ten year 120:38 to see if it builds that far without him 120:40 being stopped i would agree with the 120:42 other panelists that the uh 120:45 you know the united states i think would 120:47 step in it depends on who’s president 120:49 but i think the united states maybe 120:51 russia to some degree would step in 120:53 before it got to that 120:54 point but certainly keeping an eye on 120:57 that aggression is where we’re at right 120:58 now and and uh 120:59 there’s every indication that that it 121:01 that regional conflict is certainly in 121:03 the 121:03 the short medium term a very realistic 121:05 thing uh 121:07 i would close with saying i noticed my 121:09 other panelists 121:10 uh brought cigars to the discussion and 121:12 i wasn’t aware of that aspect of it so 121:14 next time i’ll know to bring a good 121:16 cigar for the further discussion and 121:18 thank you very much 121:19 andres and danielle for uh for the 121:22 discussion and the venue the forum to to 121:24 to discuss these important issues 121:26 thank you to all my fellow panel members 121:28 as well 121:30 that’s the beauty of being out in the 121:31 country in pennsylvania 121:33 uh mr johnson uh enjoying a cigar 121:37 it’s a beautiful day so i hope you 121:39 didn’t mind 121:41 uh miss walking i tried to refrain as 121:43 much as i could but 121:45 it was very tempting so i apologize 122:00 keep in mind that cereal she really is 122:02 smoking too oh okay 122:07 i am i am i would like to thank you 122:11 i would like to thank you all thank you 122:14 daniel 122:15 for the great 122:22 it was a really a very useful 122:26 a forum today a great conversation with 122:28 the 122:29 great points and 122:32 i have no no i have no words because uh 122:35 over all my uh the previous speakers for 122:39 cover all my uh my opinions 122:43 and all what i would like to say about 122:46 the this fragile situation of course we 122:48 are 122:49 we are in the edge of something very 122:52 huge 122:52 and we are here to follow the situation 122:56 to evaluate the situation to monitoring 122:59 the situation 123:01 and i’d like to say again all the 123:05 viewers 123:06 and uh keep in mind that the next sunday 123:10 we will talk about the pax mediterranean 123:14 which uh and macron use this uh 123:17 uh these words and uh 123:22 i don’t know how the situation would be 123:24 until the next week 123:27 and this is something interesting thank 123:30 you very much everybody 123:31 thank you thank you great thank you 123:34 thank you on behalf of the mediterranean 123:36 council and forum i would like to thank 123:38 our viewers around the world 123:40 for joining us today andreas thank you 123:42 for organizing the forum 123:44 and gentlemen we truly appreciate your 123:46 expertise and time 123:47 in today’s discussion it’s been great 123:49 thank you all 123:51 thank you thank you 124:29 so