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brad johnson it is december the 26th of
00:02
2020
00:03
and uh some years ago obama
00:06
the nobel peace prize winner and his
00:08
secretary of state
00:10
hillary clinton who came and saw and
00:12
killed people i think she said something
00:13
like that
00:14
managed to make a complete catastrophic
00:17
mess of libya which was a
00:18
western ally at the time and um
00:22
now of course i don’t know what it is i
00:24
guess it’s just kind of like
00:25
roaming tribal warfare between people
00:28
with different levels of
00:29
islamization i don’t know what’s the
00:31
update in libya please
00:33
yeah an interesting situation just very
00:36
quickly uh
00:37
the overview uh you’ve got the tripoli
00:40
government who’s there who basically
00:42
controls very little outside
00:44
of tripoli some small areas there’s been
00:46
some back and forth over the
00:48
uh second largest town that’s not far
00:50
away from tripoli cert in that area
00:52
and so the fighting continues
00:56
the the majority of the country is
00:59
uh uh run by a formal
01:02
former gaddafi general senior military
01:05
officer under gaddafi
01:07
uh who’s us educated and speaks english
01:11
and
01:12
uh you know is relatively friendly to
01:13
the united states although the
01:15
government in tripoli is the one that’s
01:16
backed by
01:17
the united nations for the most part in
01:19
europe and and the united states
01:21
recognizes them however
01:23
it’s one of those things where we’re
01:24
kind of you know half in half out i
01:26
would say and
01:27
not nothing no strong reactions on the
01:29
part of the united states as to what’s
01:30
going on there now
01:31
general haftar has backing of other
01:34
places particularly
01:35
egypt which is a neighbor there and uh
01:38
what has just happened is um
01:41
turkey using the same tricks that they
01:44
did in
01:45
uh armenia and azerbaijan is also
01:48
sending syrian mercenaries into
01:50
this area to fight on the behalf of the
01:52
tripoli government that’s there
01:54
and what they’ve also done is they just
01:57
passed
01:58
uh in in the turkish parliament
02:02
a an extension of an 18-month extension
02:06
to continue to permit turkish troops and
02:09
armament
02:10
to be in libya and be active fighting to
02:12
support the government there
02:14
now what has happened is general haftar
02:16
has has kind of been fighting these
02:18
syrian
02:19
mercenaries that are sent in and
02:20
fighting the libyan troops run by the
02:23
the government and and by the way this
02:26
is an extremist government they’re no
02:27
good for anything out there and a lot of
02:29
trouble they’re the ones that have made
02:31
these deals with turkey behind the
02:33
scenes where they’re gonna
02:34
they they share the swath of ocean
02:37
between them by treaty
02:39
and saying it’s their territory between
02:41
them of which of course the problem is
02:43
that greece
02:43
lies in that that territory of water
02:46
which you know oh that’s ignored
02:48
and so uh they’re they’re a problem
02:51
and need to be gotten rid of so in the
02:54
scheme of things the world would be far
02:55
better off if general haftar were to
02:57
take over
02:58
and finally house those guys now he was
03:00
winning turkey stepped in to help the
03:02
government in
03:03
in tripoli and then uh half tar was
03:06
starting to get pushed back and then you
03:07
had other countries like
03:08
egypt in particular as the lead but
03:11
there are a couple other arab countries
03:13
that fear turkey rightly so and so
03:16
they’re also supporting this is kind of
03:18
a
03:18
a proxy battle for what’s going on
03:20
between turkey
03:21
and many of the arab countries so uh
03:25
general haftar is now saying that
03:27
something that they had not been doing
03:29
is is straight up targeting of turkish
03:31
troops
03:32
he’s saying that’s going to change you
03:34
know you guys have to get off libyan
03:36
territory
03:36
this is not a place for outsiders to be
03:38
fighting this is for libyans this is a
03:40
libyan civil war to be
03:42
resolved by libyans which of course if
03:44
they were left to their own devices
03:45
general haftar would have won long ago
03:47
so that’s of course what he’s pushing
03:49
for which is also
03:50
you know mightily convenient for him if
03:52
that were to take place
03:53
turkey’s not going to back down this is
03:55
important to them for the
03:56
reasons i mentioned with that treaty
03:58
between the two countries for this ocean
04:00
area
04:01
it’s part of the justification that they
04:02
have for drilling in turkish water i
04:04
mean
04:05
uh greek waters those sorts of things so
04:08
uh uh turkey’s not going to back down on
04:11
this now that is provoking
04:13
egypt who very likely
04:16
uh is very serious they’ve made threats
04:18
about going in directly with troops
04:20
if turkey’s going into troops they’ll go
04:22
in with troops and
04:23
egypt i think means it and uh they don’t
04:26
like turkey they don’t like what they
04:28
see turkey doing
04:29
they don’t like all this neo-ottoman
04:31
empire stuff that’s going on there
04:33
and so it looks very likely that that’s
04:36
the kind of this is going to flare up
04:38
again
04:39
and that that’s the way this is headed
04:40
certainly the general haftar is getting
04:43
a lot of backing out of this
04:45
and if he starts to attack turkish
04:47
troops it’s going to be a
04:48
a fairly large escalation which as a
04:51
result i think you’d see
04:52
egypt come in turkey and the
04:56
the libyan army in tripoli that’s there
04:59
is small not very good
05:01
they would be gone as i said long ago
05:02
without turkey
05:04
so uh and i don’t think
05:08
uh turkey without a massive commitment i
05:12
mean and really a massive commitment
05:15
the support that they’re providing in
05:16
libya could not stand up
05:18
to any sort of determined assault by
05:20
general haftar
05:21
and uh backed and strengthened i’ll put
05:24
it that way with
05:25
turkish with uh uh egyptian forces
05:29
so uh that’s one of those things if that
05:31
happens i would say
05:33
tripoli is gone without massive massive
05:35
intervention
05:36
and it’s it’s further for turkey it’s
05:38
not that easy for them to get in
05:40
in in a big way they’re not adjacent
05:42
countries
05:43
like egypt is there so that would be
05:45
something very easy for them to do
05:48
so turkey would be in a real
05:49
disadvantage they would have to
05:51
escalate this to kind of a full-scale
05:53
regional war
05:54
i and kind of the reason i want to do
05:57
the update on that is
05:58
is essentially that i would say there is
06:00
a small
06:01
chance not a big chance but a small
06:04
chance
06:05
that this could flare up into regional
06:07
conflict of that nature where you’d have
06:09
several arab countries facing off
06:11
against turkey who would have to
06:13
probably attack them directly in order
06:15
to win if you will in
06:17
in libya so there is a small chance of
06:20
that we’re not near that point yet
06:21
but these are the things that have to
06:23
happen in order to that
06:25
to see that regional conflict take off
06:27
and so those pieces are starting to fall
06:30
into place
06:30
my personal opinion is out of all of
06:33
this that
06:34
turkey would not be willing to go into
06:36
that large of a regional conflict it
06:37
would be
06:38
horribly destructive to them they don’t
06:40
have any backing by anybody else to do
06:42
it
06:42
i don’t think nato would come to their
06:44
rescue for what they’re doing in libya
06:46
and it kind of escalating out of control
06:48
that’s not a nato type conflict and it
06:51
and the aggressor out of this
06:52
is in fact turkey so uh
06:55
my my best estimate now would be that
06:58
what you’d have happen is
06:59
uh if if egypt comes in with a
07:02
determined effort
07:03
you’re going to have tripoli fall and uh
07:06
and that would be an enormous setback
07:08
for turkish president erdogan
07:10
but i don’t think he’s got the i just
07:13
don’t think he would be willing to go to
07:14
the next stage
07:16
and try to fight these guys now and you
07:18
know invade and
07:19
try to try to stop egypt from
07:21
intervening and those sorts of things
07:22
and to bring in
07:24
massive amount of troops that would then
07:25
be required into libya to fight directly
07:28
against
07:29
egyptian troops and things like that i i
07:31
just don’t see him being willing to go
07:32
that far
07:33
conceivable but but i would say
07:35
improbable but nevertheless one of those
07:37
problem areas that has to be watched
07:38
and certainly i i would say the fighting
07:40
there is on its way to escalate so
07:43
it’s one of those libya is one of those
07:44
troubled areas to keep our eyes on
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foreign
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