https://youtu.be/QDXFUf3QWGU
Ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia looks headed to armed conflict, says Brad Johnson, CIA Chief of Station (Ret.) The U.S. has stepped in with another $125 millions to support Ukraine in this contested Donbass region. Russia has been using snipers to demoralize the opposition forces, but Ukraine has gone from reacting to direct action with increased equipment and troops. At stake is access to the Black Sea and trade routes to the Atlantic. With maps.
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brad johnson here for americans for
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intelligence reform
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intel reform.org it is march 2nd
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2021 doing an update on what’s been
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going on
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in the crimea the crimea was a section
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of ukraine that was
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annexed by russia under the i’ll call it
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pretext but
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under the justification of there being
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russians in that area that weren’t
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treated well
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the this is is starting to move forward
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to a point where it really looks like
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it’s going to erupt into fighting once
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again
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you’ve got the russians in that area
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have been using
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russian troops maybe individuals brought
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in
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snipers that sort of thing and
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surrogates like from wagner group
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which is uh basically a mercenary
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private sector mercenary
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company that basically belongs to russia
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that it’s an
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extension of russian policy and military
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mine
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and there are people that go back and
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forth between the russian military and
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wagner uh according to the reports that
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are out there so there’s not a lot of
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daylight between those two things and
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certainly involved with
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russian intelligence and all that even
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though it is run as a
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private sector company now russia has
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been maintaining
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a kind of a low low-level conflict in
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that area and they
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sting ukraine and kind of keep things
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going and then they’ll
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they’ll uh do you know kind of limited
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attacks and things like that
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and it looks like what russia has been
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planning
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is uh to to slowly bleed ukraine
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to keep them kind of in a position where
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they’re not really able to do anything
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because they’re picked out here picked
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out there
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and it just it spreads out their
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resources so
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uh it’s it’s interesting to see and just
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as like case in point
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uh i’ve gotten some statistics out of
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that area and in a three week period the
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last week in january and first two weeks
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in february which is
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a month ago um there were
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uh 13 ukrainian soldiers reported killed
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and another 19
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wounded mostly by snipers interesting
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not
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an actual battle but just sniper fire
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going on and that’s one of those things
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that’s done
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to you know kind of pick at the enemy
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and and keep them
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you know uh uncertain and down and you
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know the inflictable
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you know uh wounds on their psyche as
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well as
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you know as the individuals killed or
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wounded in all of this
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um but there’s other things going on
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there so you’ve got this sort of low
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intensity conflict going on
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instigated by russia on the one hand on
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the
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other hand now what ukraine has done is
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as they’ve been very
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limited in their response to these
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things because when they’ve responded it
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sparks a little conflict
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the russians are always better
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positioned because they provoke these
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so they’re ready for them where the
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ukrainians are responding to them and
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not as prepared
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so they’ve changed their tactics and in
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this region the front line region is
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called donbass
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and i may be pronouncing it incorrect
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pronouncing it incorrectly but
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uh in that region which is part of
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crimea it’s all part of this area
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annexed by russia
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they’re now moving in tanks and
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equipment and men
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and materials and all of those things so
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they’ve got now a sizeable force moving
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into the area
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it is where conflict comes from you’ve
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now got forces facing off
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against each other and if they create a
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big enough force
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then they’ll be able to roll through
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some of these russian troops and
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and surrogates and uh you know the local
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forces that are organized
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the united states has responded and just
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came out with another
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aid package another 125 million now
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that’s not
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that much in the scheme of things where
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the total aid going to ukraine over the
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last few
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years has been in the billions this is a
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small addition but it’s one of those
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things that’s going in is
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advisory training equipment and things
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like that which is a little bit of a
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shot in the arm
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as they’re doing this build up those two
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things are not coincidence those things
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are
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causal with the buildup going on this is
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aid to do this
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one of the things that’s very
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interesting out of that two things that
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are very interesting out of that aid
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package
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of what’s been reported
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the they’re trying to improve
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this is one of the things why we do
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joint exercises all the time
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they’re trying to improve how ukraine
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can cooperate with nato so now the eu
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the european union countries and the
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united states have been supporting
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ukraine in this mess and now that
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interoperability
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with nato is becoming a factor and so
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this goes into the training of it
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so that in many ways is a warning sign
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to russia that will not be lost on them
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they’ll view this this is beginning to
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scale up
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as to the potential danger that could be
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there one of the other things that came
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out of this age
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aid package that’s interesting is the
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that budgets in two more mark six patrol
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boats now those
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patrol boats are uh you know they’re
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a coast guard sized vessel if you will
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they are a navy vessel they can be very
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well armed and equipped i’m assuming
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these will be too
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and uh you know radar they’re very
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effective
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on you know in these coastal water areas
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and for black sea or or things like that
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these are effective
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uh vessels so and it’s one of the things
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we’ve been talking about a lot you’re
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seeing a lot of navy
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buildup so this is all in recognition of
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all of that
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and part of it and there is a a
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developing
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arms race if if you will in the sense of
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navy capability kind of ongoing with a
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lot of other countries getting involved
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trying to build up navies
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and specifically in the black sea region
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mediterranean black sea and elsewhere
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certainly the pacific
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as well different theater but uh this is
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this is something that’s starting to
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really spin up
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you i would say the odds
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of there being open conflict
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with ukraine and russia in
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the crimea has just taken a serious step
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up
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so it looks like the ukrainians are
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preparing to go in
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i would say the chances of this as i say
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developing into open conflict
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has become quite high so i would expect
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to see a shooting war
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kick off there here in the fairly
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near future i wouldn’t be surprised if
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they’re waiting for the kind of good
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weather to hit
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if you will and then probably go in it
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should they should have everything
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positioned it appears there be
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that they’re preparing in that way some
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of the questions that remain
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you know the russians are not idiots
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they see all of this coming
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will they do any sort of uh
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attack to to dull the what they think it
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would be
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uh where the or the ukrainians would
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come through they certainly are
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willing to do those sorts of things in
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airstrike or things like that to damage
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the equipment that’s being
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staged to go into this area of donbass
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where the where
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that’s the front line right now in that
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conflict so this has gone to a new level
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where armed conflict
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open not like full-scale war
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but open open fighting
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i would say is is the odds of that have
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become very high
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and it looks like that’s the way that
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it’s headed in the short term
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you
[/expander_maker]
Brad Johnson, CIA Chief of Station (Ret.), is President of Americans for Intelligence Reform and brings his 25 years of experience as a CIA Operative and Chief of Station serving multiple times overseas in direct support of the War against Terrorism. Mr. Johnson is a certified senior expert in Counterintelligence issues with extensive direct experience in the field. He brings you his unique perspective from deep, international experience and conservative, Christian values. Now retired, he formed Americans for Intelligence Reform to fight exactly the corruption and politics destroying our intelligence capabilities and threatening our national security.
He is an enrolled member of The Cherokee Nation, a Federally Recognized Tribe.
