Americans for Intelligence Reform

Brad Johnson, President, and retired CIA Senior Officer and Chief of Staff. Insight into current events from an intelligence angle.

Trump middle east peace plan

https://youtu.be/SifKE9Uoqxc
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Brad Johnson it is January 30 2020 and
00:03
President Trump like all of the last all
00:06
the American presidents in my lifetime
00:07
at least has come forward with another
00:10
with a his own version of a potential
00:11
peace plan between the Palestinians
00:16
Muslims will ever have you and the and
00:18
Israel the one Jewish state in the world
00:21
and I haven’t looked at it I know
00:24
nothing about it I’ve heard nothing
00:25
about it the only thing I know is that
00:27
that the Muslims in the Palestinian
00:29
territories started writing well before
00:32
the thing was released saying they
00:34
wouldn’t accept it which I think tells
00:36
should tell any reasonable person
00:38
anything they should need to know really
00:41
doesn’t matter what the deal says
00:42
they’re going to reject it but I’m gonna
00:44
guess that you’ve looked at it what can
00:46
you tell us well it’s it’s very
00:48
interesting this time and naturally
00:50
whoever’s in charge for the Palestinians
00:53
in that area Hezbollah is going to be
00:57
against a peace treaty or a peace
00:59
solution for for Gaza West Bank and all
01:03
of that and the reason of course and we
01:05
saw this when the Palestinian Authority
01:07
was still there and Yasser Arafat was
01:08
still alive and at one point the
01:12
Americans and the Israelis went to them
01:15
and just looked at the list of
01:16
everything of their demands and said ok
01:19
we’ll give you everything on your list
01:20
and Yasser Arafat went ballistic he said
01:23
absolutely not no no no so I mean the
01:26
the demands we knew were false and they
01:29
were just always intended to be
01:31
impossible to meet and the reason is
01:33
because that was how he got power and
01:35
money it made him relevant as an
01:37
authority if there was an actual peace
01:38
treaty Yasser Arafat would have become
01:41
relatively irrelevant you know he could
01:43
have been the governor of a little town
01:45
in the middle of you know podunk and and
01:47
and that would have been it whereas he
01:50
was on the world stage as a leader as
01:51
the head of the Palestinian Authority
01:53
now that plet remains true for his below
01:56
who’s running the show there it’s it’s
01:58
it’s not something where it’s to their
02:01
advantage in any way shape or form
02:02
because that’s a major source of funding
02:03
for them for the air a lot of the
02:06
Hezbollah Hamas
02:08
I’m sorry Hamas yeah so that’s a major
02:13
mistake I apologize I’m sure I’ll get a
02:14
lot of criticism on that one so I’m just
02:18
talking about Hezbollah Hamas is gets a
02:21
lot of their funding and and and and and
02:24
they’re you know see that the world
02:27
stage based on this Palestinian
02:30
controversy so they’re always going to
02:32
be against it so it’s got to be kind of
02:34
shoved down their throat as a peace plan
02:36
now all of the there’s a difference now
02:40
under what President Trump is doing
02:42
versus what everyone else did now
02:45
personal Trump being a businessman has
02:47
looked at this thing and has set it up
02:48
as an economic vehicle and it’s set up
02:52
in such a way that this gives real
02:54
economic possibilities to that region to
02:57
really grow and so it’s something that
02:59
would be a huge advantage to the actual
03:02
people living in the air controlled
03:04
areas to go to this peace treaty so it
03:10
would give them a homeland but it would
03:11
also make them I put them in a position
03:12
to be an economic you know not world
03:16
stage powerhouse but still a strong
03:18
economy where they could make money and
03:19
do really well so that’s gonna appeal at
03:22
the base level to the people in the area
03:24
which is new where before it was always
03:26
a political thing where they didn’t
03:28
really delve into what it would look
03:30
like inside so this is a very
03:34
interesting tactic used by President
03:36
Trump and of course with his background
03:37
in business it is a natural thing for
03:40
him to think of select I actually am
03:42
very curious and interested in this now
03:45
also at the same time we see some
03:47
differences in the world stage as well
03:49
Egypt Saudi Arabia for example on the
03:52
one hand and say Iran and Turkey to some
03:55
degree on the other hand where you have
03:57
Iran and Turkey supporting a more
04:00
radical Islamic approach very anti West
04:04
us Israel all that where there that
04:08
battle for control in the region and
04:11
influence in the region has shaped up
04:14
such that Egypt which is is the main
04:17
population center I mean it’d be very
04:19
difficult for anything to happen in that
04:20
region to be a sort of a universal truth
04:24
without Egypt just because they’re so
04:26
big
04:27
and Saudi Arabia a much smaller
04:29
population but makes up for it in their
04:32
economic clout just a based on the money
04:34
so you have them now where it is as
04:37
common it’s it’s shaped up such that
04:40
it’s to their interest to have a
04:41
solution there so you’ve got elements
04:44
and influential important elements
04:47
within the Arab world that could would
04:50
find this a useful thing to have this
04:52
this treaty take effect so now of course
04:55
Iran and Turkey those people will be
04:57
against it a lot of other people could
04:59
Qatar will be against it but you do have
05:02
the more powerful of the two groups
05:05
probably supporting it
05:06
I would certainly put Egypt against
05:09
Turkey equitably in and Iran in Saudi
05:12
Arabia perhaps but all added up you
05:15
certainly have a sizeable important
05:16
faction that could support this now the
05:18
flying the element at this point is
05:20
Jordan King Jordan is one of our better
05:22
allies in the region and you know an
05:27
influential person just in and of
05:29
himself and the some of the territorial
05:33
divisions how what would go to be split
05:35
off from what was once Jordan be given
05:38
to Palestine to the Palestinian homeland
05:41
then are something that his people are
05:43
objecting to so he’s getting some
05:45
political pushback now he personally I
05:47
don’t know if he would go for it without
05:49
that and is responding to domestic
05:51
pressure not if it’s just that his idea
05:54
as well if he agrees with that negative
05:55
thoughts towards towards that aspect of
05:58
it not sure he cares they haven’t had
06:00
control of that area for a very long
06:02
time so don’t know but that’s the one
06:06
fly in the ointment now on the other
06:07
hand the king of Jordan is a pragmatic
06:11
guy I mean an intelligent educated he
06:15
you know he knows what needs to happen
06:17
that would be better for all that sort
06:19
of thing he can calculate all of those
06:21
things so he’s going to be somebody that
06:24
they could they can eventually probably
06:26
negotiate something with if that’s such
06:28
a big deal but that’s sort of the fly in
06:30
the ointment right now and like I said
06:31
the things are kind of aligned in a way
06:33
that are different the economic elements
06:36
to this the elements within the Arab
06:38
world that would be supportive
06:40
certainly the partnership that trump has
06:41
forged with Israel by moving the capital
06:44
of Jerusalem and these sorts of things
06:45
he’s got some very deep running goodwill
06:49
in Israel so I think there’s a high
06:51
degree of trust for him out of Israel so
06:54
I think the stars are aligned I would
06:56
say for the first time me personally and
06:59
I’ve been involved in the background of
07:01
a lot of these things going on
07:03
previously and and I would say for the
07:05
first time there’s there’s maybe a real
07:08
shot at this so I’m actually fairly
07:10
optimistic and I think that President
07:12
Trump has shown some creativity and
07:14
intelligence on the way he’s put this
07:16
together it’s it has a shop
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