https://youtu.be/FsWSjD77XcU
[expander_maker id=”8″ more=”Click for entire transcript” less=”Read less”]
brad johnson here for americans from
00:03
intelligence reform I’m speaking with
00:04
Barry Webb author former NSA Arabist and
00:08
senior fellow at Americans for
00:11
intelligence reform and we just
00:13
published an op-ed at the website until
00:16
reformed org that Barry wrote that I
00:19
think is extremely interesting so wanted
00:21
to touch on that today briefly and let
00:23
Barry kind of lay this out for you the
00:26
title of the piece is air – GaN set
00:28
stage for Libya invasions so Barry go
00:31
ahead and why have you concluded that
00:33
that’s what Aragon the president of
00:36
Turkey is up to and that he intends to
00:37
invade Libya or take over Libya okay
00:41
first a quick background on what’s going
00:42
on Olivia you have basically two
00:44
governments you have the so-called
00:47
government of the agreement in Tripoli
00:50
which is headed by a fellow named Suraj
00:53
which the EU and the UN has accorded
00:57
quote/unquote international you know
00:59
recognition and credibility on the other
01:02
side you have a parliament that had was
01:04
elected way back and 2014 I think it was
01:07
in but they’re in exile now in Tobruk
01:10
because the Muslim Brotherhood didn’t
01:12
accept them and they’re aided by a
01:17
retired general in half jar who runs
01:20
what he calls the Libyan National Army
01:23
well the Libyan National Army has taken
01:25
over most of the country and they’ve
01:27
cleaned out most of the Isis and al
01:29
Qaeda CELTA that they could find but the
01:32
city of Tripoli under this government of
01:36
the government agreement Suraj is a
01:40
hotbed it’s a Woodstock for terrorists
01:42
of all sorts Isis al Qaeda Muslim
01:46
Brotherhood Ansar al-sharia
01:47
so these are the two sides now even if
01:51
you look at who’s supporting who the
01:55
half term is being supported by Egypt
01:57
Saudi Arabia and the UAE and to a lesser
02:00
extent France and Russia and the other
02:04
side the Tripoli side is where all of
02:07
the terrorists are is supported by the
02:10
world’s top three supporters state
02:13
sponsors of terrorism Turkey Iran and
02:16
Qatar
02:17
so that tells you should tell you who
02:19
the good guys are and the bad guys are
02:20
now course Turkey has plans for he heard
02:26
again the route the current ruler in
02:29
Turkey wants to re-establish the Ottoman
02:32
Empire as the next Caliphate and so part
02:36
of that has to be to take over all of
02:39
the Arab countries including Libya and
02:42
he plans to do this through his alliance
02:44
with the Muslim Brotherhood so that’s
02:47
his motivation for supporting Tripoli
02:49
now after there were this is a war on
02:54
Tripoli it’s been kind of a stalemate
02:56
for several months all during the summer
02:59
in the fall but with the entry of a
03:02
thousand Russian mercenaries working for
03:06
a company called Waggoner it has shifted
03:08
the balance of power and the Libyan
03:11
National Army under general Hefner has
03:13
been making gains and the Tripoli
03:17
government is kind of hanging on by
03:19
threads and to so to prevent their fall
03:24
herb again has decided that turkey needs
03:27
to intervene more forcibly they have you
03:30
bear you mentioned specifically that
03:33
Aragon is claiming there’s a large
03:35
Turkish minority that represents maybe a
03:38
quarter of the total population of Libya
03:41
and that he’s using that and the age-old
03:43
excuse like Hitler did with dramatic
03:45
people in different countries to invade
03:47
in order to save their there there’s
03:50
ethnic subgroups that are in those
03:52
countries so is that is how is that
03:54
playing out with the government in
03:56
Tripoli and Aragon and how is that
03:59
moving forward and where would you place
04:02
the impact that that has since Turkey is
04:05
a NATO member how is that going to play
04:08
because that that puts him in opposition
04:10
to you know NATO policies by invading
04:13
and taking over a local country what can
04:16
we only help for five minutes okay first
04:20
of all the total population of Libya is
04:22
about five million or taganas
04:25
named that there’s a million Turks
04:27
living in Libya and of course he
04:30
therefore like you said and like Hitler
04:32
said you know half a century ago he has
04:35
the right to defend these Turks and that
04:38
this is justification for intervening
04:41
more forcibly and openly in in Libya now
04:47
the Libyan National Army what they’re
04:50
saying is well these Turks are left over
04:53
from the old Ottoman Empire one hundred
04:55
years ago and you know there’s like
04:57
third fourth generation now that have
04:59
been born and raised in Libya they speak
05:01
the Libyan dialect and they’re Libyan
05:03
citizens so they’re not jerks so they
05:06
kind of reject that view now Turkey
05:11
intervening forcibly or openly into
05:14
Tripoli or into Libya I like like
05:17
they’re doing now he he just got
05:18
approval from the Turkish Parliament to
05:21
go ahead and and send troops into Libya
05:26
so you’ve got France which is a NATO
05:29
country supporting one side you’ve got
05:32
Turkey which is a NATO member supporting
05:34
the other side in Libya so yes it puts
05:37
NATO in a very very difficult position
05:40
and of course the United States also as
05:43
a part of NATO and it’s the kind of
05:45
leader of NATO is also in a difficult
05:47
position
05:48
so you’re my own personal feeling is
05:52
that we should cut our ties with Turkey
05:55
and go ahead and openly support the
05:58
half-door group because the city of
06:01
Tripoli is a Woodstock for terrorists
06:04
and if we you know claim to be wanting
06:06
to win the war on terror
06:08
I think taking that out would be a step
06:11
we should take well that’s not I don’t
06:13
think really on that on the table here
06:15
for the for the Trump administration
06:16
what how do you see this actually
06:19
playing out with with arrogance and
06:23
tensions it looks like he’s basically
06:25
moving for the most part unchallenged so
06:28
assuming that he’s going to be able to
06:29
move these troops into Libya is he going
06:32
to be able to control the government in
06:34
Tripoli as to the extent he needs and
06:37
since there are some
06:39
sore points between them about the
06:41
Turkish population and all of these
06:43
things and what about the opposition
06:45
force that controls the rest of Libya
06:47
outside of the capital well how are
06:49
those three factions going to play out
06:51
going forward what’s your prediction for
06:53
the next year let’s say the only
06:58
prediction I can make is more and more
07:00
escalation the Libyan National Army has
07:02
promised to punish the Turks to do to
07:07
destroy any Turkish ship that brings in
07:11
yellow fighters soldiers cetera and to
07:15
take them on the question is how much of
07:19
an investment to start you want to put
07:21
in it’s going to take more than the few
07:23
hundred that they’ve so far assigned to
07:27
triple to Tripoli and then if they do if
07:30
they do escalate that what does Russia
07:32
do because they’ve got these you know
07:34
this on 1,000 Quantico Russian
07:36
mercenaries fighting for the Libyan
07:38
National Army now Russia also has
07:41
interest there so what does Russia do
07:43
and then also another question is what
07:47
does Egypt do Egypt has already said
07:49
that yeah that they cannot allow Libya
07:56
to be controlled by any outside power
07:59
and they cannot allow Libya to be you
08:03
know just a a hotbed for terrorists and
08:05
because that threatens their national
08:07
security as well so you know is Egypt
08:10
going to enter in full force – so to
08:15
answer your question what I see is more
08:17
escalation in Libya so within the Arab
08:21
world what are there another the two
08:23
factions that we’ve mentioned say Egypt
08:25
on the one side that does not want
08:27
Turkish intervention to control Libya
08:29
and Turkey has its supporters
08:32
there’s always Iran which is kind of a
08:34
frenemy with with Turkey they’ve got
08:37
some areas where they can work with each
08:39
other and some areas where they’re
08:40
definitely definitely in opposition so
08:42
how in the Arabic world the
08:45
arabic-speaking world is there any
08:49
generalization you can make other than
08:51
those
08:51
two factions sort of pro turkey taking
08:54
over an anti turkey taking over as they
08:56
what are the undercurrents first of all
08:59
within Libya itself we mentioned of
09:01
course the Tripoli faction and the
09:04
Libyan National Army which is base in
09:07
Benghazi so this is basically Tripoli is
09:09
on the western part of Libya and
09:11
Pangasius and the east part of Libya so
09:13
it’s kind of an east-west battle within
09:16
Libya but the other faction of Libya are
09:19
the tribes and clans and the southern
09:22
parts of the country and they originally
09:24
come out in support of the Libyan
09:26
National Army and became in response to
09:29
the Turkish intervention now toured
09:35
again recently dropped in oh Tunisia we
09:37
mentioned that in this article also and
09:39
walked in unannounced and assuming that
09:44
the Tunisians would automatically
09:46
balance great to IMF support his
09:48
position in in Libya but they didn’t
09:51
they demonstrated in the streets and the
09:54
you know social media kind of went wild
09:56
so he kind of failed there now this
10:01
article that came out in l20 yesterday
10:03
saying that several countries have
10:07
supported turkeys move into Libya and
10:10
they mentioned of course Qatar which is
10:14
a close ally of Turkey and Sudan which
10:18
has bit of surprise and then they said
10:21
oh macha Roberto otterby which the
10:25
Arabic Maghreb in Arabic lingo refers to
10:29
several countries first to Libya Tunisia
10:32
Algeria and Morocco and Mauritania the
10:36
article didn’t specify which of those
10:38
countries supported early dance move you
10:42
know that Tripoli that the Tripoli
10:45
government would have who the others are
10:48
I don’t really know possibly Algeria but
10:56
it seems that most of the Arab world my
10:59
impression is that most of the Arab
11:00
world is against Turkish intervention in
11:03
Libya okay yeah
11:05
they’re probably afraid of the booty
11:07
love the ottoman empire being reimpose
11:09
so you know I guess that that makes some
11:11
overall sense one group we have not
11:14
mentioned that you did mention in your
11:15
article is the Kurds so I would say if
11:19
you could give your thoughts on where
11:21
the Kurds stand on all this and any
11:23
final thoughts and we’ll finish up with
11:24
that well the Kurds are going to be
11:26
against are gonna be for anybody that’s
11:29
against Turkey clearly the other much of
11:36
Cyprus earlier in in in in your question
11:39
series of questions if people have to
11:42
remember that 1974 Turkey and paid his
11:44
Cyprus and they took control of about a
11:47
third of it they raped and ethnic
11:50
cleansed every Greek that they could get
11:52
a hold of and Aragon has threatened in
11:57
some of his speeches to do another
11:59
Cyprus in in in Syria and he started it
12:04
looks like he’s doing the same thing now
12:05
in Libya to curve out more territory for
12:09
what he believes is a new Ottoman Empire
12:15
since that’s not really being recognized
12:18
or at least focused on in the United
12:20
States is there anything that’s going to
12:22
stop him from at least expanding those
12:25
ambitions and and starting to absorb
12:27
some nearby countries into the new
12:30
Ottoman Empire the only thing that could
12:33
stop him would be the emerging the
12:37
United States Russia could if Turkey was
12:42
not a member of NATO because they have
12:45
an ancient animosity 800 years the
12:49
constants been fighting each other but
12:52
because of his membership in NATO that’s
12:54
kind of access a shield protecting him
12:56
from aggression by anyone else so he is
13:01
playing or began to skillfully playing
13:04
the United States and Russia off on each
13:07
other
13:07
it was NATO membership and there now
13:11
with her serene Ian thing going crazy
13:13
its I can’t see anything stopping him
13:15
right now okay alright let’s leave it
13:18
with that then
13:18
web thank you so much thank you
13:24
[Music]
13:36
you
[/expander_maker]
