Americans for Intelligence Reform

Brad Johnson, President, and retired CIA Senior Officer and Chief of Staff. Insight into current events from an intelligence angle.

Barry Webb, retired NSA Arabist, author and senior fellow at AIR on Iran today

https://youtu.be/HSCZIQsQrWc

For the entire transcript of this interview, please continue reading

0:00:00.060,0:00:07.350
Barry Webb former Arabist and translator

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for the NSA thank you very much for this

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week’s edition of news as as extracted

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from Arabic media and I think the big

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subject right now this several really

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but I think the one that’s most urgent

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might be Iran since it does look like

0:00:21.359,0:00:26.029
something’s coming up there’s a lot of

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reports of of ships which have

0:00:26.029,0:00:32.040
mysterious giant holes cut in the halls

0:00:29.519,0:00:33.420
rumor has it that Iran’s claiming

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responsibility for that I’m gonna let

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you take it away and tell us what we

0:00:35.130,0:00:40.829
need to know or what we’re not otherwise

0:00:37.860,0:00:44.219
being told about this current situation

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with Iran in the United States okay Joe

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orient the audience first of all over

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the weekend there were four oil tankers

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that were less than the attacked off the

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coast of Fujairah which is one of the

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main point point palm ports for the UAE

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United Arab Republic and its port

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through which a good chunk of the

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world’s oil you know it is gathered and

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then is transferred to these oil tankers

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and noticing on the math is just it’s

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just barely outside of the Strait of

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Hormuz now the Strait of Hormuz is very

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important because if you look at it and

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looking at the map and look at the

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various items there and how narrow it is

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theoretically Iran could shut off all

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transport to and from the other Gulf

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states you know Bahrain and and these

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are part of Saudi Arabia UAE etc Kuwait

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by sinking two chips two or three ships

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in the Strait of Hormuz yeah and nobody

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can get through so that’s been a big

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fear by everybody that you know if there

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is a war or and to do that and of course

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Iran has threatened to do that now when

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this happened off the coast of Ruggiero

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which is not really in the Strait of

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Hormuz but close to it it kind of got

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everybody all riled up

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based on the the pics that I’ve seen on

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ya the Arabic TV channels only one ship

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was noticeably damaged that wasn’t our

0:02:25.110,0:02:31.739
Weejun ship so basically you have four

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ships that were targeted but there were

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no casualties and none of the ships were

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sunk there wasn’t even a drop of oil

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that leaked out so is to me a look like

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a very amateurish job and immediately if

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it happened the UAE which is online to

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Saudi Arabia and very much in the camp

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of enemy you versus versus Iran the UAE

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immediately begins saying that the our

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demand that the international community

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had to put a stop to this in order to

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make the sea passage is safe and away

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and that immediately made me think of

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the Tonkin Gulf incident the Protestant

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of Vietnam War and remember the main

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which brought us into the

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spanish-american war and so my first

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impression was that this was not the

0:03:26.340,0:03:31.920
state actor that did this as this job is

0:03:29.069,0:03:34.799
so half-assed amateurish that it was

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either a lone wolf acting on behalf of

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Isis or it was the Houthi group which is

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you know based in Yemen and fighting

0:03:41.819,0:03:49.380
against the Saudis and the Emiratis

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and I kind of held that view until this

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morning I saw some reports for Iran had

0:03:52.400,0:04:01.880
the headlines screamed that Iran had

0:03:55.590,0:04:01.880
claimed this attacked but as a turn out

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that’s not really true what happened was

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that a news newspaper a news site

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Iranian news site which is very closely

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related to the Iranian Republican Guards

0:04:16.109,0:04:22.250
argc which we have just declared as a

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terrorist organization it was that

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organization at that the paper that new

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site that had made the call

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that Iran had done it and they

0:04:29.849,0:04:34.349
exaggerated the damage they said the

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porch area was all in flames which

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wasn’t and they also claimed the port of

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Yanbu which is in northwest Saudi Arabia

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as having been also hit and you haven’t

0:04:48.210,0:04:54.419
gone up in flames which was not true

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what did happen there is that the Saudis

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are building out a huge pipeline from

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their Eastern oil fields to this port on

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the west coast in Yanbu as insurance in

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the case of you know the Iranian Tara

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closing out the Straits of Hormuz and we

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still have a way to get oil out to the

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world and the Houthis had actually

0:05:15.779,0:05:22.889
managed to to hit that pipeline with a

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drone and I’m not sure of the damage yet

0:05:22.889,0:05:26.789
the Saudis closed down the pipeline and

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closed down additional we have

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construction until they investigate to

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see what the damage was so not sure how

0:05:31.110,0:05:36.539
much damage was done there but it

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certainly didn’t yeah you know and yeah

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cause the whole city of the M booty

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would go up into flames so you have this

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this new site making these exaggerated

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claims that turned out to be not true

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and just recently a few hours ago the

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Iranian Republic I mean certainly the

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Iranian government came up publicly and

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said that we didn’t do it okay so I

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think this is to deflate some of the war

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a more wondering that’s been going on

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warfare that’s been going on throughout

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the Middle East and over here of course

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in the States but of course Trump has

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this aircraft carrier on the way is that

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I supposed to started there he’s already

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say any sense and b-2 bombers over there

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now I don’t know why sent the b-2

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bombers because they can they can lift

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off from wom and bomb Iran’s is easy

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that yes you know by placing them on

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tatra they become a potential target

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from rainy missiles but

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way to look at some of the other factors

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some of the geopolitical factors that

0:06:45.730,0:06:53.860
might be you know behind this escalation

0:06:49.150,0:06:56.050
thing we look at our brand I’ve recently

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come across a report saying that mosque

0:06:56.050,0:07:05.860
attendance in Iran is only is only 3%

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now in other words the Iranians are so

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sick and tired of this fundamentalist

0:07:09.520,0:07:14.610
Islamist regime that they’re voting with

0:07:12.040,0:07:18.520
their feet staying away from the mosque

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but even more than that is it they’re no

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longer newborn children that you look at

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the dish their names that are being

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giving them given out to newborn

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children they’re no longer giving their

0:07:26.230,0:07:32.680
kids Islamic names they’re going back

0:07:29.740,0:07:38.880
into ancient Persian pre-islamic person

0:07:32.680,0:07:42.460
history is that fantastic news yes so

0:07:38.880,0:07:45.100
now in terms of around ability or desire

0:07:42.460,0:07:48.210
to wage war there’s two schools of

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thought one is that they would like

0:07:48.210,0:07:56.190
confrontation with the US as a last-gasp

0:07:52.690,0:07:58.780
attempt to unite the public behind them

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but the other side of the coin is that

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Iran is so fractured and there’s so

0:08:01.000,0:08:07.990
little public support for the regime

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that you know something like that could

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actually could bring them down so it’s

0:08:12.040,0:08:19.570
risky for them put it that way so in

0:08:17.710,0:08:21.730
essence if I if I’m understanding you’re

0:08:19.570,0:08:23.470
saying that the damage done to these

0:08:21.730,0:08:29.560
ships was deliberate but it was by a

0:08:23.470,0:08:32.080
Muslim Brotherhood front group er well I

0:08:29.560,0:08:34.810
think probably the Houthis who are you

0:08:32.080,0:08:36.190
know basically radient proxy though yes

0:08:34.810,0:08:37.990
there are Iranian practicing they were

0:08:36.190,0:08:39.820
probably a branding equipment but the

0:08:37.990,0:08:42.040
Chavez so amateurish because it didn’t

0:08:39.820,0:08:44.230
do any serious damage other than they

0:08:42.040,0:08:47.530
did you know poke poke a hole that one

0:08:44.230,0:08:50.410
shit anybody who’d like to know what the

0:08:47.530,0:08:52.120
Houthi are about Google the Houthi motto

0:08:50.410,0:08:55.060
and have a

0:08:52.120,0:08:57.640
on Wikipedia it is a pretty blood

0:08:55.060,0:09:01.180
chillingly awful little slogan to live

0:08:57.640,0:09:03.940
by and I’ll leave it up to people to do

0:09:01.180,0:09:05.950
it but it’s the Houthi motto or slogan

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and whenever they’re doing any kind of

0:09:05.950,0:09:09.850
demo you can see half of them are

0:09:08.080,0:09:13.270
carrying signs with this slogan so it’s

0:09:09.850,0:09:15.130
not like they don’t mean it they

0:09:13.270,0:09:17.770
regurgitate the rainiest Logan death to

0:09:15.130,0:09:19.750
America death to Israel also yes what

0:09:17.770,0:09:21.520
that tell us where they’re at and they

0:09:19.750,0:09:24.250
these are the guys that are hurling

0:09:21.520,0:09:27.970
missiles at the Saudis every day yes and

0:09:24.250,0:09:30.790
that have taken over again yeah so in a

0:09:27.970,0:09:32.230
way it really was arranged that did this

0:09:30.790,0:09:34.510
because I can’t imagine that they would

0:09:32.230,0:09:42.730
do this kind of damage to these these

0:09:34.510,0:09:46.779
ships without yeah yeah very won’t be

0:09:42.730,0:09:49.540
true like a state into a pretty good job

0:09:46.779,0:09:51.520
of it so so here we are now so what did

0:09:49.540,0:09:53.529
we do now do we take vengeance against

0:09:51.520,0:09:59.560
the movies or take offenses against the

0:09:53.529,0:10:01.690
Iranians I mean I think they still owe

0:09:59.560,0:10:07.779
them for one was the Revolution 79 I

0:10:01.690,0:10:11.520
said yeah big job yes absolutely and a

0:10:07.779,0:10:14.320
bunch of other things and another

0:10:11.520,0:10:16.060
meeting with the parking heads and those

0:10:14.320,0:10:18.730
Jazeera were saying immediately after

0:10:16.060,0:10:20.890
this you know after the news came out

0:10:18.730,0:10:23.130
about the the you know these the attacks

0:10:20.890,0:10:27.430
off of from Jarrah

0:10:23.130,0:10:29.440
as they were thinking that it was one of

0:10:27.430,0:10:31.900
the three countries that are trying to

0:10:29.440,0:10:34.360
draw the United States into a war with

0:10:31.900,0:10:37.320
Iran and these three countries would be

0:10:34.360,0:10:45.850
the UAE itself

0:10:37.320,0:10:48.490
Wasabi’s and Israel and well no cutter

0:10:45.850,0:10:52.450
or never let me get it I’ll get it to

0:10:48.490,0:10:54.310
cut it but let me get back on this now

0:10:52.450,0:10:55.900
this makes the mood you know certain

0:10:54.310,0:10:57.940
mental sense so these these three

0:10:55.900,0:10:59.920
countries you are a Saudi Arabia and

0:10:57.940,0:11:02.190
Israel have the capability of course to

0:10:59.920,0:11:05.860
sink all those ships that they wanted to

0:11:02.190,0:11:08.440
but what if they just you know

0:11:05.860,0:11:11.339
had this incident to damage some of them

0:11:08.440,0:11:13.779
to get news in order to touch off this

0:11:11.339,0:11:15.700
confrontation because they would like

0:11:13.779,0:11:19.209
nothing better they’d had the United

0:11:15.700,0:11:21.880
States you know go into Iran and take

0:11:19.209,0:11:24.850
down the regime now this is what Talking

0:11:21.880,0:11:27.010
Heads on al Jazeera are saying and I

0:11:24.850,0:11:30.339
just wondered because the UAE was so

0:11:27.010,0:11:32.980
fast in demanding that the international

0:11:30.339,0:11:35.110
community you know do something about

0:11:32.980,0:11:36.850
this right away that was almost like

0:11:35.110,0:11:41.019
they were begging the United States to

0:11:36.850,0:11:43.570
come in and kick some ass so that’s one

0:11:41.019,0:11:45.820
possibility but you know going back to

0:11:43.570,0:11:48.070
your other question your other comment

0:11:45.820,0:11:53.079
is I agree that even if Iran didn’t do

0:11:48.070,0:11:55.959
it you know the world cannot sit by and

0:11:53.079,0:11:57.190
let them get nukes and they’re kind of

0:11:55.959,0:12:00.870
getting nukes unless we take them down

0:11:57.190,0:12:03.579
so maybe it might be worthwhile to do it

0:12:00.870,0:12:06.970
but it’s going to take more than one

0:12:03.579,0:12:09.579
aircraft carrier and more than 120,000

0:12:06.970,0:12:14.140
troops that that the demonstration is

0:12:09.579,0:12:16.959
planning along the United States was

0:12:14.140,0:12:20.560
able to obliterate Iran’s ability to

0:12:16.959,0:12:21.940
make war set them back 20 or 30 years

0:12:20.560,0:12:25.120
that would be a really worthwhile

0:12:21.940,0:12:26.980
project yeah I could see them doing that

0:12:25.120,0:12:30.130
maybe taking out their entire Navy and

0:12:26.980,0:12:31.779
then their airfields and whatever

0:12:30.130,0:12:33.730
airplanes they can see on the ground and

0:12:31.779,0:12:35.730
their centrifuge their ability their

0:12:33.730,0:12:38.079
centrifuge

0:12:35.730,0:12:40.240
Gary Webb thank you very much for that

0:12:38.079,0:12:44.230
I’m not sure if we should be relieved or

0:12:40.240,0:12:45.880
concerned I feel like in some ways the

0:12:44.230,0:12:46.839
needle stayed at the same place but we

0:12:45.880,0:12:48.970
have more information

0:12:46.839,0:12:50.800
yeah at that situation with Iran keeps

0:12:48.970,0:12:52.720
changing every hour or so just don’t

0:12:50.800,0:12:54.880
keep watch on the news see what happens

0:12:52.720,0:12:58.199
keep watch the news if you want to know

0:12:54.880,0:12:58.199
what isn’t going on

0:13:29.780,0:13:32.870
[Music]

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