https://youtu.be/Nk6B_7TF9s8
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Brad Johnson it is September the 18th to
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2019 and something interesting happened
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in the Middle East which I think is
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going to be difficult to play by those
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same rules of the last few months up to
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now in the way it looks like just as an
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armchair observer is that Iran has been
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trying to create for its enemies what
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will be seen as a casus belli in order
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for their own people to feel they’ve
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been victimized when they get a return
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attack like when they took down a drone
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they were expecting an American attack
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would consolidate the power in Iran the
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Americans were smart enough to say they
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didn’t kill anybody so we’re basically
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not going to respond and Iran’s been
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escalating ever since and what looks
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like I mean they have controlled the
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information at home so their own people
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don’t know what they did but they will
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know what happens as a response I mean
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that’s how I’m reading it anyway
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so now what they did is using a series
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of drone attacks took out 50% of Saudi
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Arabia’s oil refining capabilities our
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or or production capabilities either way
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50% of the only industry Saudi Arabia
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has has been destroyed by Iran’s proxy
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the Houthi and I don’t think anyone’s
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fooled by thinking it’s a bunch of
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bearded weirdies and pajamas from Yemen
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with these sophisticated coordinated
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drone attacks so my question is I mean
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feel speak about this any way you want
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that my question is how can we play this
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like this isn’t worthy of a response
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well yeah very interesting question I
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think you’re hitting hang on the center
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of it I mean just and and my little bit
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on leading into this is yeah there’s
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been some circuits that have out of
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Yemen that have claimed that they’ve
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done it and others that may have been
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involved but all of the groups all are
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supported and run by Iran so even if
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it’s even if it was one of the surrogate
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groups like the Hutus out of Yemen and
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or something I mean they they don’t just
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do that on their own they didn’t get the
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equipment in training you know on the
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internet they they they were given this
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stuff by Iran and shown how to use it
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and told to go do it so no matter how
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you slice it that’s the
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the origin of it is Iran now and kind of
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what to do and this this there’s a of
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course always a number of factors but I
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kind of sticking with the cause for a
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moment rather than our reaction here in
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the United States you know the the the
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situation with Iran essentially hasn’t
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changed I mean they’ve been under
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sanctions for decades off and on at
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different levels but they’re reacting
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differently this time then they have it
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all of those previous you know like I
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say decades of of these sorts of things
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going on ever since they came to power
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under the this regime with the Khomeini
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and so on
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during the Jimmy Carter days we’ve used
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sanctions as a tool against them to try
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and control them but their reactions are
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much stronger now and I would say this
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is kind of one of those just an
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alignment of motivations by different
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people and you so you have these
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subgroups that are the surrogates of
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Iran that you know want to stand out and
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do stuff and so therefore get more money
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in support for their little fiefdom Iran
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now they have a couple of problems one
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of it is there’s just this
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ever-increasing sentiment on the part of
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the people to get rid of the regime
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they’ve never been all of that popular
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and it’s it’s declined since they came
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to power and the Iranian people are a
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people that have their own history and
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many things prior to their to their this
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regime is taking of power like 51 or 52
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percent of all doctors in Iran and back
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in those days under the Shah were women
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and they could drive and wore western
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clothes and had everything I mean it was
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a normal country with a booming economy
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all many of those people that lived that
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are still alive so it’s it’s still in
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the memory of those people they want it
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back you know because life was way
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better than is more safe and just a lot
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better in every way so that memory is
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there so they’ve got this domestic
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problem and you alluded to this and
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touched on it and and so they’ve always
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got to do things for their domestic
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audience
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but and I’m much of this is that so
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that’s I think part of why Iran is so
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involved with this but I think beyond
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that there also be encouraged to a new
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degree and then as people analyze this
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and talk about it one of the elements
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they always forget is China now China is
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in a very serious problem with the
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United States in the West as well
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negotiations are not going the way they
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want and they’ve got problems in Hong
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Kong
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they’ve got that same domestic problem
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where they’re essentially ruling against
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the will of their people like the
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Iranian regime is their ruling against
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the will of their people and it’s clear
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in China that that’s a problem and so
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they’ve instigated a lot of things to
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tamp down on the population including 50
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million cameras on every streets
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including little villages across China
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just to keep an eye on everybody and
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what they’re doing and facial
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recognition and all those things this is
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an organ of control over the population
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that China is implementing so with their
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economy beginning to shrink a lot of
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economic problems the the flow of money
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coming in has been cut off because of
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Trump negotiating with them fairly tough
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you know being fairly tough with them in
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negotiations they’ve got problems so
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they don’t want direct conflict with the
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United States they know they can’t win
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economically they know they can’t win
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militarily so they have to act out
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through surrogates and one of their
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surrogates or I may be partners would be
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a better word is Iran so I think China
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is looking for ways to create world
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problems as well and in order to
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pressure Trump and take his you know eye
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off the ball with China if you will and
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and create trouble perhaps get him to
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lose the next election those sorts of
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things so this is all playing out in
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favor of China as well so I I don’t I
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think everyone should keep in mind that
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they’re a major factor in this Iran
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their different behavior now compared to
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decades of previous behavior the only
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difference between now and then is China
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and they’re also in that problem so I
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think they’ve joined together look at
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this similarly it plays to both of their
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domestic bases if you will less China
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more Iran in that sense but still it
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shows you all United States is in
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trouble the
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doing this and for them to provoke a war
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with Iran you know they don’t give a
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damn that’s good for them and and I
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think you ran you know they don’t really
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care about that sort of thing either
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they view that as you know just one more
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thing if we strike and destroy some base
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of theirs or something like that that
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place well domestically for them because
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they can show this terrible enemy doing
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these terrible things so it all of that
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plays into this situation and like I
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said these things are just lined up so
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that we have a much much much more
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difficult and belligerent situation with
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Iran right now and this is one of the
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ways they can act it out of course Iran
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and Saudi Arabia already hate each other
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so it it works out in just a number of
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ways it’s all kind of fits together
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beautifully now the other half of it and
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the basis of your original question was
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what’s going to happen as a result now
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we’ve just seen john bolton who was
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saying regime change in Iran and that
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was one of the reasons that he kind of
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lost the confidence of the president is
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because he kept that was one of the
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things that John Bolton pushed was a
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regime regime change now zero-sum game
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the way that John Bolton looked at it is
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what’s the best thing for national
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security United States of America well
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having a new democratic hopefully form
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of government in Iran that represents
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the people and you know wants peace and
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trade and all of that is way better for
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the entire world and certainly way
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better for the United States of America
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so that’s how he viewed it zero-sum this
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is what we need to do and his
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methodology was direct I mean Bolton
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famously a kind of a direct guy so
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whatever he was suggesting was of a
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direct nature now that’s not Trump so it
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brings us to today what is our reaction
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gonna be against Iran very interesting
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if you listen closely what to talk to
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what President Trump says and even
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though he’s constantly accused of lying
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president Trump’s a fairly
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straightforward direct man himself and I
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I don’t I think he very very rarely
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actually lies and what he’s saying on
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this is fairly straightforward revealing
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of what he really thinks and wants to do
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and you notice what he has said well yes
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I mean we’re locked and loaded we can do
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things against Iran if we find out that
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it’s actually you know directly them and
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we can confirm all this then yes we can
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take steps against Iran
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now just if you follow that out and kind
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of take this context that I’ve already
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given with China out there I think
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now all this information of course is
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what anything I know I’m sure president
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knows 10 times over so an N can has
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people that can figure this stuff out
0:09:08.270,0:09:13.280
for him with him and so on and I think
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he recognizes that this is not just Iran
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operating only on its own so striking
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back at just Iran doesn’t necessarily
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make sense and again another thing the
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president’s accused of being as being
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like war monger sort of guy but he’s not
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he’s kind of the opposite of that he
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wants to negotiate it’s his style and
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it’s his strength and he knows that so
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he’s constantly trying to play to his
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strengths which I go back again to China
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and he’s been masterful at that he’s
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just done a you know kick kick rear end
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job on on dealing with China’s nobody
0:09:43.970,0:09:46.700
else has been able to do that he’s the
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first that’s ever been able to really
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get this going
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and the Chinese not understanding how to
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deal with him or lashing out and Iran
0:09:52.070,0:09:54.770
agrees with them at this and so it’s
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something where it’s kind of a
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partnership made in heaven from their
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perspective that they’re both trying to
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achieve their goals through through
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acting out with these belligerent means
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you know the the drone strikes in Saudi
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Arabia and the things are doing to
0:10:04.790,0:10:10.820
tankers and all of that all of this is
0:10:06.950,0:10:14.990
one big thing and President Trump is is
0:10:10.820,0:10:16.520
looking for a non warlike response to
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this trying to figure out how to do it
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and if you look at what he’s done when a
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US drone was shot down he had a very
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measured response and he understands
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this is not just an isolated little
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thing just Iran one guy giving the
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orders acting out sort of thing this is
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a conglomerate of different people with
0:10:30.980,0:10:36.320
motives that happen to coincide working
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together so I think his response is
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going to be measured in that sense and I
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think that’s what we’re gonna see he’s
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probably going to additionally put
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pressure on China I think he’s going to
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do additional pressure economic type
0:10:45.620,0:10:50.240
sanctions on Iran and if he does any
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sort of strike it’s going to be fairly
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controlled and limited because he
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understands I mean you’re you’re you’re
0:10:55.190,0:11:01.280
you’re striking at you know just a
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little a little part of the problem and
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not the not the cause so III think he
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just views it as you know we’re not
0:11:06.950,0:11:09.950
gonna go to war with China over this
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we’re not gonna go full-blown war with
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Iran over this
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so therefore what do you do how do you
0:11:13.100,0:11:16.130
negotiate your way out of it so that’s
0:11:14.480,0:11:17.690
the analysis that’s going on right now
0:11:16.130,0:11:19.130
at the White House that’s what they’re
0:11:17.690,0:11:22.130
discussing they’re still bringing in all
0:11:19.130,0:11:23.570
the facts to take a look at you know who
0:11:22.130,0:11:25.070
the who they can prove did what but
0:11:23.570,0:11:27.710
still he understands the alignment
0:11:25.070,0:11:30.320
that’s taking place behind all of this
0:11:27.710,0:11:32.570
and what what do you think the South I
0:11:30.320,0:11:35.360
mean the salaries okay I accept all that
0:11:32.570,0:11:38.300
math okay but the Saudis in the meantime
0:11:35.360,0:11:40.490
have lost 50% of the one industry they
0:11:38.300,0:11:42.640
have and these are people that don’t
0:11:40.490,0:11:46.250
take not getting a new roles every year
0:11:42.640,0:11:47.990
very easily so what do you see these
0:11:46.250,0:11:50.750
guys doing in response I mean are they
0:11:47.990,0:11:52.280
gonna call in a debt from Pakistan or
0:11:50.750,0:11:54.800
you know what kind of equipment they
0:11:52.280,0:11:57.890
have is it possible that the Americans
0:11:54.800,0:12:00.470
could equip the Saudis to act on their
0:11:57.890,0:12:04.550
own defense and do a strike back on Iran
0:12:00.470,0:12:06.260
you could see it yeah you could see it I
0:12:04.550,0:12:08.750
mean there’s a problem shaping up in
0:12:06.260,0:12:10.040
Egypt that a lot of this is there’s
0:12:08.750,0:12:11.600
different reasons for it but there’s
0:12:10.040,0:12:14.150
different pressures coming on different
0:12:11.600,0:12:15.920
Arab countries like the Saudis like in
0:12:14.150,0:12:19.340
Egypt where you can see some sort of
0:12:15.920,0:12:23.900
willingness to strike at Iran through
0:12:19.340,0:12:25.430
them and actually that would be a good
0:12:23.900,0:12:27.890
way if you will in the scheme of things
0:12:25.430,0:12:29.900
to go about this rather than the United
0:12:27.890,0:12:31.850
States taking direct action and
0:12:29.900,0:12:33.620
encouraged them there’s always Israel –
0:12:31.850,0:12:36.080
Israel has been very worried about the
0:12:33.620,0:12:37.670
Iranian nuclear program for a long time
0:12:36.080,0:12:41.150
and trying to take out some of these
0:12:37.670,0:12:44.090
places you know would would be something
0:12:41.150,0:12:46.310
that Israel has wanted to do and has
0:12:44.090,0:12:48.650
talked about doing for a long time so
0:12:46.310,0:12:50.660
maybe some sort of joint strike getting
0:12:48.650,0:12:53.390
a coalition together to do something to
0:12:50.660,0:12:55.760
strike back at Iran I mean something
0:12:53.390,0:12:57.710
along those lines strikes me as
0:12:55.760,0:12:59.930
something that would appeal to President
0:12:57.710,0:13:01.610
Trump so I wouldn’t be surprised to see
0:12:59.930,0:13:03.920
a kind of a measured response of that
0:13:01.610,0:13:05.480
nature where you have a coalition of
0:13:03.920,0:13:07.550
countries I think you know Kuwait and
0:13:05.480,0:13:09.710
Saudi Arabia would would be interested
0:13:07.550,0:13:11.720
and probably you know at least a handful
0:13:09.710,0:13:13.010
of others perhaps Israel as well but
0:13:11.720,0:13:14.900
wouldn’t it be something to see Saudi
0:13:13.010,0:13:17.840
Arabia and Israel cooperate on something
0:13:14.900,0:13:20.050
like that I you know it would be just an
0:13:17.840,0:13:23.560
interesting way to respond and and
0:13:20.050,0:13:25.630
something that’s kind of that flavor of
0:13:23.560,0:13:28.000
negotiation if you will because I’ve got
0:13:25.630,0:13:29.620
a coalition response so I would not be
0:13:28.000,0:13:30.339
surprised to see something along those
0:13:29.620,0:13:32.830
lines
0:13:30.339,0:13:34.390
be done and I can almost certainly
0:13:32.830,0:13:36.700
guarantee you that something along those
0:13:34.390,0:13:38.050
lines is is being kicked around and
0:13:36.700,0:13:40.570
that’s part of why the response is
0:13:38.050,0:13:42.670
taking time it’s because all of this is
0:13:40.570,0:13:44.380
being looked at so yeah Saudi Arabia’s
0:13:42.670,0:13:45.820
gonna want to try and do something and
0:13:44.380,0:13:47.740
they’re gonna now they’re gonna get back
0:13:45.820,0:13:49.810
online fairly quickly I think they’ll be
0:13:47.740,0:13:52.570
able to repair and replace equipment and
0:13:49.810,0:13:54.610
so on so it’s not a permanent blow but
0:13:52.570,0:13:56.500
it is a big blow and it’s something they
0:13:54.610,0:14:00.300
were fully clearly unprepared to deal
0:13:56.500,0:14:03.010
with Saudi Arabia’s military is limited
0:14:00.300,0:14:04.660
so they’re also going to be limited in
0:14:03.010,0:14:06.579
what they can do which is again why I’m
0:14:04.660,0:14:10.060
kind of suggesting a coalition style
0:14:06.579,0:14:12.010
response just because like I say their
0:14:10.060,0:14:13.690
military is limited in its capability in
0:14:12.010,0:14:15.850
training and equipment and so on they
0:14:13.690,0:14:18.040
have some pretty good fighter aircraft
0:14:15.850,0:14:20.620
they’re not course nowhere near as well
0:14:18.040,0:14:24.100
trying to say US pilots or the most of
0:14:20.620,0:14:25.480
the western pilots so it would it would
0:14:24.100,0:14:26.829
have to be something I think where they
0:14:25.480,0:14:28.630
would do it in conjunction with other
0:14:26.829,0:14:30.250
people so that I would not be surprised
0:14:28.630,0:14:32.170
if something right along those lines
0:14:30.250,0:14:34.630
kind of what you were hinting at there
0:14:32.170,0:14:36.640
would be the would be the long term or
0:14:34.630,0:14:40.230
you know the actual final response out
0:14:36.640,0:14:40.230
of this out of this attack
0:14:46.100,0:14:48.160
you
