Americans for Intelligence Reform

Brad Johnson, President, and retired CIA Senior Officer and Chief of Staff. Insight into current events from an intelligence angle.

Brad Johnson Turkey Greece Israel and the new AXIS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCxTzXx0hc

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2020
00:04
and uh turkey appears to be continuing
00:07
its ramping up of animosity against
00:11
basically everybody um what is it that
00:14
you have for us today
00:16
well kind of a couple of interesting
00:18
developments and this is something that
00:20
we
00:20
actually talk about fairly often just
00:22
because uh you know how
00:24
aggressive and expansionist turkey has
00:26
become under the leadership of its
00:28
current president erdogan
00:30
so uh there was something that yet we’ve
00:33
talked a couple of times there’s been
00:35
quite a little bit in the news but
00:36
there’s a lot of problems going on
00:38
between greece and turkey and
00:40
essentially
00:41
the problem is coming from turkey
00:45
and or it’s been being initiated by
00:47
turkey
00:48
and turkey is claiming that in those
00:50
mediterranean greek waters
00:52
that the natural oil and gas
00:56
resources that are in those areas belong
00:58
to him
00:59
and uh there was a quote that he just
01:02
came out and was was talking about i
01:03
want to read it says
01:04
we will not compromise what is ours we
01:07
are determined to do whatever is
01:08
necessary
01:09
and he said that at a ceremony
01:13
uh just this in the past couple of days
01:16
uh which was celebrating the the
01:19
victory of the ottoman empire over the
01:22
byzantine empire the byzantine empire
01:24
which
01:25
the eastern orthodox uh which was
01:27
constantinople and
01:29
where the uh highest fiat church is all
01:32
of that stuff so
01:33
when it got conquered this is a this is
01:35
a celebration of that
01:37
victory which also you know in their
01:40
mind includes
01:41
basically the greek uh waters and
01:44
and and territories which uh the ottoman
01:47
empire at its
01:49
uh greatest extent controlled much of
01:52
europe and
01:54
certainly all of that area around them
01:55
including the arab countries
01:57
and so uh that’s how erdogan views it in
02:01
the
02:01
is in islam for for him
02:04
uh and he views himself as the next
02:06
caliph of a
02:08
neo-ottoman empire
02:11
he views all those resources as
02:13
rightfully his
02:14
and so this is how absolutely how wars
02:17
gets started
02:18
and he has and and his comments to
02:21
greece he’s saying
02:22
exactly that those are ours we’re not
02:25
compromising on it
02:26
and we’re going to do what it whatever
02:27
is necessary to have what’s ours now
02:30
of course the rest of the world
02:32
basically doesn’t agree
02:33
i mean that’s territory that they lost a
02:36
very long time ago
02:37
so it’s it’s not something that they can
02:39
really rightfully claim
02:41
under international law as it’s viewed
02:43
today
02:46
but this is something where he just
02:47
doesn’t care that’s not his perspective
02:49
he’s using
02:50
kind of the ancient old style you know
02:53
from
02:54
uh by the way that victory from over the
02:56
byzantine empire that he was celebrating
02:58
took place in
02:59
1071. so i mean that’s that is his
03:02
perspective that those
03:04
customs or rules or whatever from back
03:05
in 1071 or what should apply now in
03:08
2020 so uh i i don’t
03:11
really see now germany has just gone off
03:14
they’ve sent an
03:15
emissary to go to back and forth between
03:17
athens and ankara
03:19
and try to broker peace and reduce the
03:22
tension all this because it
03:23
people see where this is headed but
03:26
how do you you know greece is not just
03:30
going to
03:31
give up its territory and
03:35
ankara erdogan doesn’t see it that way
03:38
he views that as
03:39
his rightfully his and by with holding
03:42
it from him that’s an act of war in
03:45
essence from erdogan’s perspective
03:47
so uh now greece is largely i mean
03:51
it’s clear what’s happening here this is
03:53
an aggression by greece
03:55
whether you know you can justify it or
03:57
not by these
03:58
uh traditions from islam you know is
04:01
this kind of a separate issue but
04:03
the uh the fact is that turkey’s
04:06
essentially attacking
04:07
uh greek territory to take the resources
04:10
from those which
04:10
again they think it’s theirs the rest of
04:13
the world says it’s not
04:14
in essence uh so kind of one of the
04:17
other things and this is something i’ve
04:18
been talking about many many many times
04:20
for a very long time and
04:21
anyone who sees these on a regular basis
04:23
let me talk about the four plus one
04:25
which is kind of the
04:26
national security threat formula how how
04:30
the world is viewed right now and which
04:31
is
04:32
uh you know russia um china iran
04:36
and north korea plus the one being
04:39
terrorism
04:39
and i have long argued that china needs
04:42
to be bumped up so a more realistic
04:44
national security threat formula would
04:46
not be the four plus one it would be the
04:48
one plus four plus one meaning china
04:50
being the greater threat should be
04:52
separated out at the top
04:53
and then uh replaced by turkey in the
04:56
main body of the four so one
04:58
one plus four plus one which would still
04:59
be so china at the top
05:01
turkey russia north korea and iran
05:04
and then terrorism and this is something
05:07
that’s interesting just now
05:09
israel has come out and the former
05:11
director of their mossad their
05:13
intelligence agency has come out and
05:15
said that
05:16
former ally turkey with whom
05:19
israel had a good relationship
05:22
uh is no longer that friend you know
05:24
they used to sell weapons to turkey
05:26
those drones and stuff that
05:28
have popped up in different places
05:30
including uh
05:31
uh and azerbaijan and the fighting there
05:34
from
05:34
turkey bringing them in and using them
05:36
and
05:38
uh this is this is uh one of those cases
05:42
where
05:42
israel has now said yes indeed turkey
05:45
does represent a threat
05:47
they are a long-term national security
05:48
threat what i’ve been saying for a very
05:50
long time
05:52
and now it’s kind of officially they’ve
05:53
i’m sure been looking at it to get to
05:55
this point
05:56
where they finally agree with me and uh
06:00
and the interesting part of it too is we
06:02
just comes on the heels
06:03
of the agreement uh that was made with
06:07
uh united arab emirates and that’s been
06:09
in the press a lot over the past week so
06:12
this kind of falls into line where you
06:13
see this alliance beginning to form
06:16
including israel and arab countries
06:20
uh who view turkey
06:24
greece of course and israel has said you
06:26
know we’ll stand by you greece in this
06:27
issue we’re on yours
06:29
and so you see this coalition kind of
06:31
forming around greece
06:33
to protect them against turkish
06:35
aggression so this
06:36
is this is an interesting change in in
06:39
what we had been seeing with now israel
06:42
who is of course another ally of the
06:43
united states
06:44
uh who’s now openly stating that turkey
06:47
is
06:48
an ongoing threat now president trump
06:50
just recently
06:51
praised erdogan for these hostages that
06:54
came out but i think what we see
06:55
there uh they were these were hostages
06:58
american hostages
06:59
being held by turkey and they were
07:01
arrested because essentially they were
07:03
christians
07:04
and pastors and people like that who
07:06
were forming christian churches in
07:08
in turkey and so that’s illegal for them
07:11
and so these guys are all arrested now
07:13
they’ve gotten these uh people out of
07:16
of jails in in turkey and brought them
07:18
back home
07:19
so he praised erdogan for being
07:21
cooperative on that which is fair but on
07:23
the other hand
07:24
it’s not lost on me or i’m sure it’s not
07:26
lost on president trump that
07:28
those guys were all arrested by turkey
07:30
in the first place
07:31
for what you know for being christian so
07:34
uh this is a real problem forming we can
07:36
see the radical islamic perspective
07:39
really beginning to blossom in turkey
07:42
and the real take-home point out of all
07:44
of this is
07:45
for everyone to remember is that that’s
07:48
what
07:49
turkey views is correct and right and
07:52
righteous
07:52
and justified and all of that are those
07:54
behaviors you know being a christian
07:56
trying to convert people to christians
07:58
is essentially
07:59
a death penalty for him and so he was
08:03
by erdogan from erdogan’s perspective
08:05
being extremely understanding to let
08:07
these people go but he at least got them
08:08
out of his country
08:10
and so could save face essentially that
08:12
way but then
08:13
viewing these territories which as i
08:15
said most of europe and most of
08:17
all of the arab countries and most of
08:20
the world around
08:22
uh turkey today’s turkey
08:25
he views those resources those things
08:27
those people
08:28
everything there as his and rightfully
08:31
his
08:31
and he’s going to get them back and
08:34
anything you know that works against
08:35
that is standing between
08:37
you know him and god’s will and
08:40
that you know that’s the simple truth of
08:42
it so i don’t think these negotiations
08:44
that germany is
08:45
is uh uh trying to conduct
08:48
to keep they keep peace between uh
08:53
greece and turkey uh
08:56
are are going to be successful i just
08:57
don’t see how this is going to work
08:59
because
08:59
like i said greece cannot just give up
09:03
this these territories to turkey and
09:05
turkey
09:07
things that rightfully they’re theirs so
09:09
you just have these opposite
09:10
perspectives
09:11
and he’s everyone wants that stuff he
09:14
wants those resources so
09:16
it’s not going to go away it’s not going
09:18
to change as long as erdogan is there
09:20
alive and kicking and in charge it’s
09:22
headed towards war in that region
09:24
so i don’t see it around it at this
09:26
point not saying that this is imminent
09:28
in the sense that
09:29
a naval war will erupt in the
09:31
mediterranean between greece and turkey
09:34
tomorrow but i am saying it’s more it’s
09:37
now become a question
09:38
of when not really a question of
09:41
if uh there are some other circumstances
09:45
there i’m oversimplifying of course but
09:47
uh if enough pressure can be brought to
09:48
bear by the united states and europe and
09:51
israel and other countries and and some
09:53
of the other arab countries
09:54
who also by the way view turkey as a
09:56
threat
09:57
uh you know if enough pressure can be
09:59
brought to bear by them you know you
10:01
might be able to curb them and keep them
10:02
in there keep them in a box
10:04
but that’s going to get tougher and
10:05
tougher and tougher and
10:07
erdogan has consolidated his control
10:09
inside turkey we’ve talked about all of
10:10
that in the
10:11
past and he needs those resources to
10:13
expand
10:14
much like i almost hate to make the
10:17
comparison but much like
10:18
why we saw japan go to war in world war
10:21
ii
10:21
they were very expansionist and they
10:24
needed those resources
10:26
from the expansion to continue the
10:27
expansion so
10:29
i i think that it’s it’s a similar logic
10:32
taking place in erdogan’s mind and and
10:35
he’s bound and determined to be the next
10:37
grand caliph so uh i see
10:40
dark clouds on the horizon we’ll see how
10:42
it turns out i wonder what the turkish
10:44
is for leban’s realm
10:46
um what so would you say the new axis
10:49
is china iran turkey
10:55
well now that is an interesting question
10:57
i
10:58
uh yes that if you want to continue the
11:02
comparison to world war
11:03
ii where we had the axis of
11:06
italy german the nazi party and the
11:09
japanese
11:10
uh imperial regime
11:13
yes i i that is a very interesting
11:16
comparison and certainly
11:18
bears some uh uh i think it would it
11:21
would be well worth
11:22
kind of looking at that from that
11:24
perspective because
11:26
certainly you’ve got china and iran and
11:28
turkey kind of
11:29
squaring off against similar enemies so
11:32
it would be sort of a natural
11:33
i would say in that uh once again it
11:36
would be kind of like the relationship
11:37
was with
11:38
uh you know the soviet union back in
11:41
world war ii because russia is sort of
11:42
the odd man
11:43
out uh you know they’re not a natural
11:45
ally necessarily
11:47
uh but they also have a number of
11:51
disputes with china they’re they’re they
11:53
certainly view each other’s competitors
11:55
just as russia views turkey is now
11:59
a competitor like i said they’ve had
12:00
wars through at least three major wars
12:02
in their history
12:04
and uh you know that that would be
12:06
certainly an
12:07
area where this whole thing could shape
12:09
up very similar to
12:10
what we saw between the axis and the
12:12
alliance in world war
12:13
ii uh with the soviet union then
12:17
russia now probably participating with
12:19
the alliance side
12:48
you
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