https://youtu.be/hJfNZcMIsXM
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brad johnson it is september 11 of 2020
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and uh the the
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the action never stops in turkey um what
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is the current situation there please
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well a couple of interesting reports
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coming out in the in the media
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right now it’s kind of russia and turkey
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heating up i would say
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and uh there’s a lot of other players in
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this this is a
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mess that we’ve been talking about for a
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while the center of all of this
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is always turkey and right now the
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the turkey is talking about closing the
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boss for us now
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uh understand that’s stunning
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threat uh and essentially that’s where
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it’s a little
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narrow space that where the black sea
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connects up to the rest of the
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mediterranean sea
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now the importance out of that is that
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this would
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target russia russia at the same time
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has at least 14 or 15 warships
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off the coast of syria and this is
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something we’ve talked about before
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so uh syria being on the mediterranean
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side of the bosphorus and the black sea
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fleet
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up for the russian fleet of course being
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on the north side of it so
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they have to go back and forth through
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that
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so for turkey to threaten to close that
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it is a
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huge threat against billions of dollars
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worth of commerce because many of the
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important ports from countries in that
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european countries and
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and east uh east well that certain asian
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countries can
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can go through that so it’s it’s
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significant
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economically but it’s also significant
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militarily
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so that threat by turkey that’s now
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floating out there
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to close that is a big deal it
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i don’t think would be taken laying down
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by anybody
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it is essentially i think could be
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interpreted
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as the start or an act of war
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and uh a russia at a minimum is not
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going to be boxed into the black sea
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so i think russian ships would
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immediately move to
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go through and if fired upon by turkey
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would would be prepared to fire back
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so like i say the 15 ships they’re
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keeping ships moving
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off the coast of syria there’s a and of
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course there’s the other front
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in libya which is on the southern shore
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of the
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mediterranean sea and uh
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so all of that activity with united arab
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emirates
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and egypt and other countries being
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involved in libya with russia being
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involved
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in off the coast of syria and backing
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the regime in syria
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we’re seeing turkey begin to get serious
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pushback on all of these things that
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they’ve been doing that’s so aggressive
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in libya in syria in armenia uh
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azerbaijan armenia border there and
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nagorno-karabakh
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these things are all starting to get
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pushed back as the world
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sees how out of control uh erdogan in
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turkey’s becoming
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and how he’s pushing aggressively in so
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many different areas
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and as i said uh in a previous interview
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the head of the
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israeli mossad their intelligence agency
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has just come out and said
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turkey used to be an ally now they’re a
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strategic threat to the region
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and this is becoming very important and
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each time
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we look at this it gets ratcheted up a
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little bit mainly by
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turkey i would say they’ve begun the
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process
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and as i’ve mentioned many times they
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view these resources around them in
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these areas
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as legitimately theirs and many of the
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arab countries are now pushing back as i
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mentioned
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uae and egypt in particular and they’re
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supporting certain things going on in
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lib in libya for example
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and so that makes turkey then come back
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because
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erdogan views it as his legitimate right
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he
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responds in kind the problem with this
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scenario is
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erdogan and everybody else view
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themselves as fully justified
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so as one of the as as each side kind of
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goes up one notch it it just continues
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to
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heat up and if this threat becomes real
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of the boss first i would say that’s the
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first shot of war
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what would turkey do to enforce it they
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only have one option to enforce it
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because
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you can sail through it they can’t like
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right you know put a net across it or
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something i don’t think so
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even if they did that could be blown out
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of the water pretty easily
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so uh their only option then is would be
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to enforce it with
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with kinetic energy you know take out
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anyone that doesn’t have permission to
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go through take them out and as i said
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i guarantee you i know how the russians
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are for this sort of stuff first thing
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they’ll do is sail ships through to push
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that button
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and see what happens but they will be
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prepared to respond in kind
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if fired upon and you would then have a
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shooting war
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between turkey and russia which you know
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i
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i you know would be not a direct threat
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to the united states of america
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but i don’t know what would turkey then
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try to call upon nato would nato respond
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i mean
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the number of problems and ripple effect
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that would come out of that are enormous
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in essence russia would be in the right
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turkey would be in the wrong
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so would nato support turkey in a case
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like that we’ve already got
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a couple of countries like france in
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particular
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supporting movements against turkey
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we’ve got discussion in nato
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by the european countries going you know
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not so sure if turkey belongs in nato
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anymore
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and they’re certainly nowhere near
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they’re they’re not going to get eu
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membership and they’re not under
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consideration anymore so it’s becoming a
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mess and as i said
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erdogan is not going to back down on
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this he’s going to insist upon getting
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what he wants
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and i don’t think anybody’s going to be
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willing to give it to him
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therefore he’s going to feel the need to
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take it
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and once he moves into that mode of
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taking it what is it what’s the solution
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besides
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uh you know the use of kinetic energy
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which is
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like you know more better known as war
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so again i would say this is ratcheted
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up another notch
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and this is the main hot spot in the
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world
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around turkey that i see right now
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already lots of shooting going on
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and how do you stop that shooting from
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expanding and spinning out of control
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remains to be seen but this is i hope uh
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one of
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the places the most important places
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right now that’s getting a lot of
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attention from national security
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elements here in the united states
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because of the risk
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that’s represented here it makes me
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wonder if part of the
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reason that president trump was able to
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broker these amazing peace deals
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is that people in the region recognize
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that israel
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is a necessary strategic ally with a
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nate like a re-emerging ottoman empire
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in the region
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right makes you wonder i would say even
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without
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this now emerging neo-ottoman empire
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uh issue even without it i mean i think
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the basic question always needs to be
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here in the united states of america
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is the united states safer with a
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democratic stable israel in that
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area and i just i don’t see a scenario
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where you can paint it
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that our national security is worse off
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so it’s just
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and now with this issue this is one of
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this is a perfect example of
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why we’re better off with a stable
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democratic israel
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in that region this is a perfect example
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of it and we’re beginning to see a lot
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of
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uh countries kind of coalesce and
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willing to get along with israel and i
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i speculated previously that one of the
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reasons was we’re seeing these peace
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treaties like uae
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one of the reasons there’s others but
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one of the reasons is because of the
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growing threat of turkey
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and i think the arab countries around
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turkey recognize
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that that’s a direct threat to them
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because arabs were always looked down
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upon by turks during the ottoman empire
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days and so they they know that that’s
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where it would be headed back to
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which is kind of an interesting thing
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since arabs originated islam
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not the turks but uh this is this is the
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world we find ourselves in so
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a headed interesting direction but it is
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certainly a flash point that
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has got to be watched and this could
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turn ugly at the drop of a hat
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so
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you
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