Americans for Intelligence Reform

Brad Johnson, President, and retired CIA Senior Officer and Chief of Staff. Insight into current events from an intelligence angle.

Update on massive civil war breaking out in Afghanistan

How will Biden handle this volatile situation? Is the Taliban rising again? Some thoughts on Chinese spies detained.

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brad johnson it is january the 10th of
00:02
2021
00:03
i know that you wanted to talk about
00:04
afghanistan i don’t know more than that
00:06
but i do
00:07
i do really want to ask this i know that
00:10
president trump was working his whole
00:11
term to try to disengage from
00:13
afghanistan
00:14
and i know that the military brass lied
00:16
to him
00:17
in order to put force his hand and trick
00:19
him into either keeping troops there
00:21
thinking he’d move the manhattan or
00:22
whatever i can’t remember the details
00:24
but
00:24
i remember military brass bragging that
00:26
they had deceived trump in order to keep
00:28
that war going
00:29
so what’s the update in afghanistan and
00:31
can you add any clarity to that
00:34
well yeah there’s interesting some
00:35
interesting aspects to what’s going on
00:37
right now
00:38
i there are still american troops in
00:40
afghanistan of course it’s much smaller
00:42
than it was but there are there
00:44
there is a contingent of u.s troops
00:46
there
00:47
and they have you know air support and
00:49
those sorts of things so
00:51
they are uh while small still have teeth
00:54
i’ll put it that way in afghanistan
00:56
however this is one of the things where
00:59
uh
01:00
i i wouldn’t call a president trump
01:03
isolationist but it’s one of those
01:04
things where he just did not like
01:06
overseas adventures uh at all and so
01:08
would
01:09
was very prone to pull back troops and
01:12
you know and did that in syria has done
01:14
that in afghanistan and just doesn’t
01:16
want our u.s troops overseas in harm’s
01:18
way
01:18
which you know i applaud the sentiment
01:20
but
01:22
uh some of these things have been
01:24
counted productive to one degree or
01:26
another
01:27
but what has happened beyond that is it
01:29
kind of set up
01:30
uh once if if trump had been well i mean
01:33
i think trump was reelected
01:34
but if he were being inaugurated on the
01:36
20th uh
01:38
instead of joe biden i think we would
01:40
see it there would be a chance of
01:41
keeping it stable because people
01:43
realized trump was
01:44
also prone to do stuff about problems
01:47
when they came up especially if he’d
01:48
been good about pulling out troops or
01:50
whatever
01:50
if it went wild he might respond and
01:53
he’s viewed
01:54
as unpredictable in that sense although
01:56
personally i find him fairly predictable
01:57
or reasonable
01:58
i should put it that way but what has
02:00
happened here is now
02:02
since november third election uh what
02:05
we’ve seen is
02:06
is the overseas environment start to
02:09
adjust
02:10
and what they’re doing is adjusting to
02:12
an incoming
02:13
biden administration and afghanistan in
02:16
particular
02:17
there’s been there were peace talks
02:19
going on that have been going on for a
02:20
while trying to solve some of the
02:22
problems there
02:23
essentially it’s you’ve got a civil war
02:24
which uh
02:26
you know welcome to afghanistan that’s
02:27
kind of the state of affairs that’s been
02:29
there since
02:30
afghanistan has been identified as a
02:32
place and
02:34
uh and of course it’s tribal in nature
02:37
so you have all these different
02:38
war chiefs in these different tribal
02:40
areas that run the area
02:41
and they hate their neighbors they’ve
02:43
been fighting for a thousand years and
02:45
those sorts of problems going on i’m
02:46
exaggerating the time frame but
02:49
it’s it’s that sort of situation where
02:50
they hate and distrust their neighbors
02:52
and fight from time to time and
02:53
all that but what’s happened here that’s
02:55
interesting is now
02:56
fighting has broken off nation broken
02:59
out nationwide
03:00
and we’re seeing a lot of strikes and
03:02
bombs going off and
03:04
and full-scale uh insurrections put it
03:07
that way that are starting to form and
03:09
take
03:10
place which is a new development even
03:12
though these peace talks
03:13
were going on and things were quieter
03:16
they’re in qatar
03:17
they were quieter leading up to this but
03:20
once it became clear that biden was come
03:22
in
03:22
was coming in it’s all broken loose and
03:25
there’s one other factor i want to
03:27
well to carry that thought forward that
03:30
of course is something i’ve talked about
03:31
quite a little bit
03:32
quite a little bit a bit biden being you
03:35
know pro-chinese and so utterly
03:37
weak uh is is somebody that they all
03:40
believe they can take advantage of and
03:42
just do what they want with
03:43
impunity because under obama you just
03:45
didn’t see obama
03:47
strike back at such things in fact he
03:49
would sort of encourage it the arabs
03:51
spring and
03:52
a lot of extremism came to exist
03:55
under the obama years so this is kind of
03:57
an open door
03:59
for those guys to become preeminent
04:00
again and you’re seeing taliban
04:03
step back into that and trying to grow
04:06
and a very interesting aspect of it is
04:09
that
04:10
nobody’s reporting is that 10 chinese
04:12
intelligence officers
04:14
just got wrapped up they were held in
04:16
afghanistan for 23 days i mean that’s
04:19
that’s more than three weeks and they
04:21
were held there finally let go
04:23
china pitched to fit i’m sure behind the
04:25
scenes and got them released
04:26
but what were they doing 10 of them were
04:28
all working taliban
04:30
so china’s in this thing they’re working
04:33
to come into
04:34
afghanistan as a force and they’re
04:37
they’re
04:37
seeing their surrogates in that area is
04:40
taliban
04:40
well who’s taliban the united states
04:42
we’re not buds
04:44
so this is china obtaining
04:47
and backing another surrogate who’s
04:49
going to be interested in doing attacks
04:51
on the united states
04:52
so it’s an important development one
04:54
that’s being ignored by
04:56
absolutely everybody but it’s deeply
04:58
significant and that’s
04:59
this is one of the problems with the
05:00
biden administration is everybody’s free
05:03
to go out and do this sort of thing
05:05
i’m telling you right now i guarantee
05:07
this is not going to be the only move
05:09
of that nature being made on the world
05:11
stage we’re seeing this
05:13
played out in other areas and this is
05:14
going to pop up and we’re going to see a
05:16
lot more
05:17
aggression on the part of of the enemies
05:19
of the united states
05:21
because now they’re they’re far more
05:22
free to act because biden
05:24
you know he’s senile he doesn’t you know
05:27
he’s not going to take decisive action
05:29
on anything
05:30
and once we see kamala harris if it’s
05:32
she you know
05:33
what everyone says is very extreme left
05:36
certainly the thing she’s been
05:37
describing
05:38
she is you know communist socialist
05:40
progressive liberal type persons
05:42
so a leftist movement overseas and the
05:44
communist chinese doing what they want i
05:46
don’t think is something that she will
05:48
see is a bad thing and i don’t think
05:50
they understand the
05:51
danger that presents because as they
05:54
grow and get more powerful eventually
05:56
they’re going to go to war to conquer
05:57
the rest of whatever they want around
05:59
them and that means another
06:01
a potential world war so it’s
06:02
extraordinarily dangerous in the long
06:04
run
06:04
and what we see here in afghanistan is
06:07
just a little
06:08
tiniest piece of the tip of that iceberg
06:19
[Music]
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