What’s going on in Turkey?

Update on Turkey

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brad johnson december 16th 2020
00:04
and there is geopolitics to discuss the
00:07
usual actors turkey russia
00:08
and i know nothing of where you’re going
00:11
so
00:12
please just take it away okay well kind
00:15
of the latest
00:18
provocation that’s kind of setting
00:19
certain events in motion was that
00:21
turkey sometime back was started
00:23
purchasing
00:24
russian equipment the s-400s it’s a
00:27
surface-to-air missile
00:28
uh that that turkey purchased
00:32
that isn’t something that can be
00:34
integrated with
00:36
nato and since turkey is a member of
00:38
nato with the united states
00:40
and russia is like on the opposite side
00:42
of that
00:43
uh it makes no sense for turkey to buy
00:45
these and not that it’s not a
00:46
worthwhile weapons platform or something
00:49
like that but it’s
00:50
not integratable and doesn’t work in
00:52
conjunction and
00:53
also there could be uh you know russia
00:56
could leave software in there that
00:58
backdoor connections to get in where
01:00
they could screw that whole system up if
01:02
it’s ever
01:02
tried to be used against excuse me
01:05
russian equipment
01:06
so it’s one of those things that does
01:09
not make sense and turkey was warned
01:10
over and over about it
01:11
but they were most insistent and i mean
01:13
let’s face it turkey has been
01:15
now trying to uh kind of go down its own
01:18
road for quite some time
01:20
and its interests and so on have
01:22
diverged from nato
01:24
and at one point they were trying to
01:26
become part of uh the
01:28
eu and because of their human rights
01:30
records and problems
01:32
that’s just dead on arrival now it’s
01:33
completely off the
01:35
off the plate for consideration and
01:37
they’re just as they diverge
01:39
because of their long-term interests
01:40
turkey views itself this is
01:42
something we’ve talked about quite a
01:44
little bit but turkish president erdogan
01:46
views himself as the future
01:48
reinstatement of the ottoman empire so
01:51
the neo-ottoman empire
01:52
so essentially that’s what he’s after
01:54
and all of the things that he’s been
01:56
doing
01:57
go to support it and his when he has
01:59
state visitors over
02:00
you know he shows a big ottoman arm and
02:02
has gone to doing things like
02:04
reintroducing
02:05
ottoman terms back into modern day
02:07
turkish things like that
02:09
it’s a clear goal of his there’s not a
02:10
lot of debate
02:12
over that i haven’t heard anyone really
02:13
come out and detract and say no that’s
02:15
not what’s happening
02:16
they may like it or they may hate it but
02:18
everybody kind of agrees that’s what’s
02:20
going on
02:20
so this is part of that divergence
02:23
that’s going on that i’ve been warning
02:24
about for a long time
02:26
and uh once they’ve done that the u.s
02:29
threatened to
02:30
impose sanctions which they have now
02:32
done turkey has been saying you know if
02:34
you try that it’s not going to work you
02:37
know we’re you know we’re too great as
02:38
strong a country and
02:40
we’re we’re as strong on the field as we
02:43
are in the
02:43
you know on the negotiating table and
02:45
that’s sort of their take on this what
02:47
they’re planning to do right now
02:48
of course is wait for a biden
02:51
administration which they figure will
02:53
is not going to have the wherewithal the
02:56
testicular fortitude to stand up to them
02:59
so i think that’s what they can
03:02
reasonably expect also out of biden i
03:03
would say that’s a good
03:05
tactical choice on their part just hang
03:07
on let the trump people who are willing
03:09
to stand up to them and
03:10
get uh thrown out and then go after go
03:13
after biden and i think biden will get
03:14
weak kneed right away and
03:16
kind of take away the sanctions and let
03:17
turkey go on doing what they’re
03:19
they’re going to do an unfortunate thing
03:21
that turkey’s going to be
03:23
turned loose to start trying to
03:26
re-conquer all of the countries around
03:28
them and certainly we’ve seen them be
03:30
very aggressive in a number of areas
03:32
azerbaijan
03:34
greece different countries around now in
03:36
conjunction with this there’s a lot of
03:38
things going on between russia and
03:40
turkey russia and turkey are kind of
03:42
frienemies is the term i’ve been using
03:44
with it because while the
03:46
uh russians are selling equipment to the
03:48
turks to get the money
03:49
there’s also other things going on where
03:51
they’re kind of
03:52
fighting over things like ukraine uh
03:54
turkey’s definitely pushing back
03:56
kind of supporting ukraine against
03:57
russia for the annexation of uh
04:01
of a part of ukraine there an industrial
04:04
region of ukraine
04:05
and so uh the russians are reacting also
04:10
at the same time under this sort of
04:12
large stimulus that’s going on and they
04:14
just moved one of their fleets out into
04:16
the mediterranean now
04:18
they have their black sea fleet but that
04:19
has come out into the mediterranean
04:21
and the news reporting on it is
04:24
basically stupid what the
04:25
news reporting is going is the u.s navy
04:27
is going oh my god
04:29
the russians they’re in the
04:30
mediterranean so i mean that’s
04:33
moronic the navy would have known they
04:35
were coming
04:36
for a long long time they wouldn’t have
04:38
been surprised in any way shape or form
04:41
as soon as that uh fleet was preparing
04:43
to sail leaving its port
04:45
the navy would have seen all the signs
04:46
of that seen the supplies being brought
04:48
on ships
04:49
loaded up and all taking off together
04:51
and they would have been able to
04:52
almost immediately identify where these
04:54
guys were headed so
04:56
to suggest that this is a surprise to
04:58
the us navy
04:59
like i said that’s that’s actually
05:01
really stupid so
05:03
uh why are they out there and this isn’t
05:05
even the first time
05:06
probably four or five months ago we also
05:09
talked about here
05:10
how the russian navy was off the coast
05:12
of libya and they had i think six or
05:15
eight ships there
05:16
a smallish fleet but a fleet off the
05:19
coast of
05:20
libya and that’s this area where turkey
05:23
is confronting essentially russia on the
05:26
one hand
05:27
and egypt in particular on the other uh
05:30
for their own ends they’re planning on
05:31
taking over
05:32
completely libya using the government
05:35
that’s there that’s kind of a puppet
05:37
for for turkey right now and uh
05:40
using the port agreements that they have
05:43
to uh
05:44
to control large swaths of the the
05:48
mediterranean sea there which also
05:50
concludes includes greece
05:53
so it just goes back to what they’re
05:54
after now like i said you have russia
05:56
kind of standing up for it making a show
05:58
of force in the mediterranean
06:00
which i don’t know if anybody had asked
06:02
me four months ago or five months ago
06:04
would would russia send another fleet
06:07
out to sail around perhaps off the coast
06:08
of libya around the mediterranean
06:10
as a sure force i’d have said yeah
06:12
no-brainer so again i go back to the
06:14
the what little news coverage there is
06:16
here on the u.s and go my god these
06:18
people are morons they don’t know
06:19
anything at all
06:20
you get better reporting on it from here
06:22
than and all the rest of the
06:24
mainstream media including fox these
06:26
days so uh that’s what’s going on now
06:29
uh this is uh heating up
06:32
but i think what’s going to happen under
06:34
uh is if the biden administration does
06:36
indeed come in in
06:38
january what you’re going to see is
06:40
turkey put the screws to the biden
06:42
administration right away
06:43
they’re going to be weak need and buckle
06:45
and so you’re going to see
06:47
a momentary reduction in tension
06:51
but behind this it’s going to get much
06:53
much much much worse
06:54
turkey’s getting really emboldened to go
06:56
ahead and you’re going to see that play
06:58
out in lebanon
06:59
libya in greece and like you say entire
07:02
region around
07:04
turkey is going to become a much hotter
07:06
zone and this puts more storm clouds on
07:08
the horizon unfortunately something that
07:10
we do not need you think that
07:14
turkey wanted the s-400s in order to
07:17
be able to take down israeli aircraft
07:22
um certainly that would have been a
07:25
consideration there’s no question
07:26
whatsoever
07:27
and they’ll be able to forward this out
07:29
into these areas where they’re fighting
07:32
so it was a weapons platform that’s
07:34
really of use to them
07:35
of course on the negative side being
07:38
sanctioned like that
07:39
they’re not going to be able to get the
07:42
updated
07:44
excuse me the updated uh us fighter the
07:48
nato fighter which is the f-35
07:50
so that’s actually a big deal that’s
07:53
that
07:53
gives them air superiority uh aircraft
07:57
and the ground-to-air anti-israeli
08:00
aircraft
08:01
i i don’t i don’t know i mean maybe they
08:04
thought it would be easier to get away
08:06
with that
08:06
shooting down an israeli aircraft or
08:08
putting it in areas where they could use
08:10
it to shoot down israeli aircraft
08:12
uh is is a higher priority than having
08:15
the air superiority aircraft of the f-35
08:18
which is
08:18
that’s a that’s a very effective
08:20
aircraft i mean i i’ve
08:22
only heard you know really really good
08:23
stuff about that aircraft
08:26
so uh i think what they were
08:30
probably keeping in mind is that to use
08:33
a us-supplied aircraft
08:35
to like shoot down a what is considered
08:38
an ally of the united states
08:39
if if it were to be used to target uh
08:42
israeli aircraft that would be a
08:45
a big deal and there’s a lot of
08:46
sanctions that you’re using this
08:48
equipment to do stuff
08:49
that you’re not supposed to do like
08:52
attack another uh nato country like
08:54
greece for example
08:56
things like that so i think that’s part
08:58
of why
08:59
turkey wanted these is because it gives
09:01
them more freedom to use the s 400 in
09:04
areas where they where they want to do
09:05
stuff that
09:06
the us is not going to agree to so i
09:08
think that’s part of their long-term
09:10
strategic planning yes and under abiding
09:12
presidency
09:13
the consequences for attacking an
09:15
israeli aircraft would probably be much
09:17
lower
09:18
thank you very much brad johnson for
09:19
that update and we’ll be back shortly on
09:21
another subject
09:42
you
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2 thoughts on “What’s going on in Turkey?

  1. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is like a man trying to ride a horse backwards into the future.
    He is throwing out contradictory policy positions – based on an ad-hoc mixture of nationalist & regional aspirations. He wants Turkey to be an independent arbiter of it’s own actions without consideration of the impacts & effects – that such decisions will have on the countries around it. He is a man of strong convictions that are partly based on Islamic fundamentalism & a very blinkered reading of the Ottoman Empire’s past history. In an odd sense – he is somewhat cut from the same mold as Mussolini – Stalin & Hitler. All of them populists who sought an expansion of their power based on partly fictional readings of past glories. A crueler – yet equally apt analysis would be to describe him as the modern day political Don Quixote.
    In a strange way – the politics & history of Turkey match the underlying geological under-pinnings of that area. Turkey sits smack bang in the middle of three tectonic plates (Eurasin, Arabic & Anatolian) that are constantly jostling and shaking the ground underneath Erdogan’s feet. So far – he has been able to keep his balance. But it doesn’t take a genius to see that eventually – his promises are going to have to be met. One way or another – Turkey risks triggering a cascade of internal conflicts and external wars that it has no hope of winning.

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